Sports Reporter | Capper
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We've reached the fourth round of the 2024 French Open with the final two quarterfinals set to take shape after Monday's matches conclude.
Taylor Fritz is the first American man to appear in the fourth round of the French Open in four years, and he may just be able to play a bit more tennis in Paris this week given the way he's improved on clay over the last two seasons.
He looks to be in a favorable spot to pull off an upset against Casper Ruud, but the same can't really be said for Holger Rune, who will go up against one of the favorites to win this tournament in Alexander Zverev.
Will we see either of the top seeds fall in these matches? Let's get into our best bets and predictions for the French Open on Friday, May 31.
It doesn't seem to make any sense given their respective rankings through the last few years, but these two have only played once -- at the 2022 ATP Finals. There, it was Ruud taking out Fritz in an epic clash that went to a deciding tiebreak, and we should see a similar match unfold on Monday morning.
The American looks to be close to fully-formed on clay after struggling to learn and adjust to the surface over the course of his career. He spent most of his early years simply trying to play at his very best level on his best surface, which is hardcourts, and after cracking the world's Top 10 he's begun to shift his focus to taking away one of his glaring weaknesses which was a clay court.
He went to his first-ever Masters 1000 semifinal on clay last year when he stunned defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo, and he's put together a stellar 13-5 record this clay season with wins over some experts on the surface like Francisco Cerundolo, Grigor Dimitrov and Dusan Lajovic.
After making the final in Munich, and at least the quarterfinal in the two most recent Masters events, he shouldn't be doubted on the dirt any longer.
That leads me to the game spread here in what I think is an incredibly tight match and tough call. The oddsmakers are giving Fritz a little respect here, but it's not enough -- and on the flip side Casper Ruud is a bit overpriced as a finalist here the last two seasons when he's been a bit less than his best despite what his record would show.
He's also had two testers in recent rounds and Fritz has answered the bell against three high-quality opponents to get him ready for this one.
Best Bet for Fritz vs Ruud: Fritz +4.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)
I said before the tournament that Alexander Zverev is my pick to win it all, and despite a dramatic escape from two breaks down in the fifth set on Saturday I'm still of the belief he will win. As we've seen over the years in this sport -- and all of them, really -- one close result doesn't always mean a player or team is in a vulnerable state.
In fact, I think Zverev's win should inspire confidence in his bettors. His serve deserted him in that fifth set, but he raised his level in response and started clobbering the forehand wing which has been one of the biggest reasons he's been so good this year. The serve returned in time, and once we got to the tiebreak he dominated.
Zverev showed off his incredible fitness there and his love for physical matches on the clay, and he'll now be up against a young player in Holger Rune who's had his fair share of issues with conditioning and cramping over the years.
He's never made it past the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam given his body generally gives out around the fourth round, and there's no room for flatlining physically here against Zverev.
I don't think Rune has looked particularly convincing, either, running away with just one set during his three wins and allowing Jozef Kovalik into his third-round match in what should have been a huge mismatch.
That came on the heels of a match he should have lost to Flavio Cobolli, too, and it's safe to say we've yet to see his highest level.
I'd bank on the most in-form clay player in the world to keep it going and run away with this one. Even if the match goes four or five, I expect Rune to fade physically or donate a set to save some energy.
Best Bet for Zverev vs Rune: Zverev -4.5 Games (-105 at DraftKings)
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