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French Open Final Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Odds, Picks

Publish Date: 06/08/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

We've got a great match in store for the 2024 French Open final as Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz renew their storied rivalry at Roland Garros with the German aiming for a long-awaited first Grand Slam title.

(Photo by Franco Arland/Getty Images)

Zverev has carried over his momentum from an excellent clay season and dispatched of some worthy competition in recent rounds and will now look to avenge his crushing collapse in the 2020 US Open Final in what's his second opportunity to capture a Grand Slam.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, will be hunting for the third Grand Slam title of his young career and his first here at Roland Garros. After a trip to the quarters in 2022 and the semis last season, it would be a much-deserved breakthrough.

Without further ado, let's get into our preview the 2024 French Open Final between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz and give out a prediction and betting pick.

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ALEXANDER ZVEREV AT THE 2024 FRENCH OPEN

Tennis is a destiny sport, and for Zverev a victory on Sunday would be poetry. It was on Court Philippe Chatrier that he suffered a gruesome ankle injury in the semifinals of the 2022 French Open which held him out of action for several months and cost him success for most of the 2023 season.

  • Now, he'll not only have a chance to overcome that adversity but erase the memory of the 2020 US Open final, in his second-ever trip to the final match of a Grand Slam.
  • Zverev wound up losing that match to Dominic Thiem after serving for the tournament, and it should be said he's a much different player this time around.
  • He's gained valuable experience over the years and has overcome some issues with the "yips" on his second serve as well as the issues mentally which have cost him several big matches over his career.

Zverev took the title in Rome a few weeks ago in impressive fashion and has come through top names like Holger Rune, Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud here at the French Open to come into Sunday's match on a torrid run of form with 12 straight victories.

The German found himself in a grave situation in the third round, trailing Tallon Griekspoor by two breaks in the fifth set, before finding his serve and much-improved forehand to power through the Dutch.

He needed five sets to get past Rune the following round, which called his fitness into question ever so slightly, but in dropping just one set in his last two matches he's done well to conserve some energy for this match against Alcaraz.

  • Zverev's first serve remains dominant, and even with a poor showing in the first two sets versus Ruud he managed to land close to 70% of them in thanks to 80% or better in the final two sets.
  • The German's ability to not only produce a powerful first serve but land around 70% in each of his matches have been the reason for his dominance in recent years.

Zverev can now couple his big serving with a much more well-rounded game, improving by leaps and bounds at the net late last year and featuring a much more secure forehand at Roland Garros these past two weeks.

CARLOS ALCARAZ AT THE 2024 FRENCH OPEN

The Spaniard has been here before, winning both of his two career Grand Slam matches at just 21 years of age. He's never beenΒ here before, however, as technically speaking the French Open has been a source of disappointment for him through the years after all of his early success on the clay.

  • Alcaraz entered the 2022 French Open as the co-favorite to win the tournament before he was stopped in his tracks by Zverev in the quarterfinal match, losing in just four sets, and the following year he made it to the semifinals before hand cramps cost him his match against Novak Djokovic.

So, a win for Alcaraz would almost be as poetic as one for Zverev. He's long dreamed of winning this tournament, and against all odds he finds himself just one match away.

The World No. 3 entered the tournament with plenty of health concerns after missing around a month with a right arm issue, but his forehand has been booming throughout the two weeks in Paris.

His game hasn't exactly been the most convincing, however, in recent rounds.

Alcaraz played what you'd have to consider to be a sloppy brand of tennis in his semifinal win over Jannik Sinner and his serve -- which has been much better in this tournament -- deserted him. Alcaraz went for far too many winners and leaked a ton of errors as a result, making a meal out of that match before winning.

Other than that, however, he's looked fine for the most part. He dropped just one set prior to that match and took out one of the strongest clay players in the world in the quarterfinals when he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.

ALEXANDER ZVEREV VS CARLOS ALCARAZ FRENCH OPEN FINAL PREDICTION

Zverev owns a 5-4 head-to-head record over Alcaraz in his career, including that impressive win in the 2022 French Open quarterfinals, and it should be said that his record could look a lot better if not for that ankle injury he suffered in the following match.

Alcaraz was able to get Zverev two times during the year, feasting on an opponent that was still trying to find his form and wasn't at nearly the same level in terms of his fitness.

He actually looked strong in the first set of their US Open match last year, but after going five sets with Sinner he had little left in the tank for that one given his gas tank wasn't nearly as large as it is now.

That was the main culprit for his next two wins, at the ATP Finals and this year's Australian Open. Alcaraz came out of the locker room loose, spraying errors, and didn't seem to count Zverev as a real threat. The German also stunned him with some solid play at the net, something he hadn't featured up until late in 2023.

I think this version of Zverev is even better than what we saw in those two wins, and to this point in the tournament he's arguably been the better player.

  • Yes, he's dropped more sets and spent more time on court, but he's also had to come through three top-12 players in succession to get here.
  • After facing Rafael Nadal in the opening round and another one of the world's Top 25 in Griekspoor, he should be ready for this fight.

I'm looking towards the net play of Zverev to shine as well as his improved forehand, which should take away some of the advantage Alcaraz has here.

On top of that, he did an excellent job of limiting Ruud's chances on the forehand in his win on Friday and should keep the ball away from Alcaraz's deadliest weapon in this one enough to push for a victory.

I think the best way to play this one is to take Zverev to win at least two sets.

He's served wonderfully and if the issues on serve that Alcaraz faced on Friday present themselves again, it could be a tough match for the Spaniard to win. Alcaraz has historically had a ton of issues in that area in the past, so it's not out of the question.

Given how shaky he looked on Friday, too, I think Alcaraz is firmly on upset alert in this one.

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Best Bet for Zverev vs Alcaraz: Zverev +1.5 Sets (+110 at DraftKings)

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