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French Open Semifinals Prediction: Alcaraz vs Sinner, Ruud vs Zverev Picks and Betting Odds for June 7

Publish Date: 06/06/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The French Open Semifinals are set on the men's side, and Friday will feature two tantalizing fixtures including a popcorn match between rivals Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

(Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

The Spaniard has historically held the upper hand in this head-to-head on the slower courts and has been the better of the two on clay throughout their careers, earning him a well-deserved position as the favorite entering this one.

Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev will look to avenge his defeat in the semifinals of last year's Roland Garros to Casper Ruud when he faces him in better form, entering the slight favorite on Friday unlike the last time they met.

What kind of fireworks can we expect on Friday, if any at all? Let's get into the best way to bet on Alcaraz vs Sinner and Ruud vs Zverev in the 2024 French Open Semifinals.


I'd already be leaning towards Alcaraz in this matchup given how the head-to-head has gone over the last few seasons. With so little between these two in terms of talent, it's been quite simple -- back Alcaraz on the slower courts, and believe in Sinner on the fast surfaces.

After all, it's the creativity, touch and speed of the Spaniard which makes him such a difficult ask on clay, and while he packs a huge punch with his forehand there isn't anyone who can hit through the court with consistency like the Italian can.

A wrinkle in this match that we didn't see coming is in the serving numbers between the two. While it's tended to dictate how the matches between these two play out, holding serve on clay has been a massive struggle for Alcaraz over the last couple of seasons, relatively speaking.

  • Even earlier in the year when he played in the Golden Swing down on South American clay, he let some very weak opponents back into sets with poor service games.

Well, Alcaraz has changed up his serving motion to make things a bit more compact, and the results have been stunning. he's not only managed to win better than 73% of points behind his first serve in each of his last three matches, but he's found a way to land at least 70% of them in all but one match here at the 2024 French Open.

  • This could be a game-changer for Alcaraz, and might make for a wider mismatch than we initially expected to get between these two on clay.

Both men have shaken off pre-tournament injury concerns to cruise into this round, but it seems in the time off Alcaraz has made a drastic improvement to shore up the weak part of his game and he's done so against much stronger competition than Sinner.

I like Alcaraz to win, and don't mind laying games here with how he's played.

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Best Bet for Alcaraz vs Sinner: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)


This seems to be a bit of matchup nightmare for Ruud, who hits off of both wings with a ton of topspin. He's managed to shrug that off to win two straight matches over Zverev, but I think he's in for a much tougher test this time around.

It's always easy to make excuses for losses in this sport and use them as justification for your predictions, but I will point out that not only did Zverev enter as the underdog in this match last year due to the fact that he'd only played four months of tennis after recovering from injury -- he was also not at his best back in 2022 when Ruud took him out in Miami.

  • He pulled out of Acapulco with an injury in late February, returned to lose in the first round of Indian Wells to Tommy Paul and didn't look to be himself until he got to Rome in May, losing to Ruud along the way.

Zverev looks to be near the peak of his powers now after his win in Rome and run here at Roland Garros has not only solidified his world-class fitness and affection for physical matches on the clay but has featured an improved forehand.

It's deserted him at times, but it still looks to be considerably more trustworthy which could take him to the level required to finally lift his first Grand Slam trophy.

I mentioned this is a matchup nightmare for Ruud because against the 6'6" Zverev topspin isn't nearly as effective. In fact, Ruud's groundstrokes will be kicking up into the strike-zone of Zverev, and his backhand lacks any pace to speak of which should make for easy pickings for the German.

  • Ruud will have an advantage in forehand exchanges, but the delta between the two may be closing, and on the flip side Zverev should crush anything hit to his backhand from the weak offering of Ruud.

I like this head-to-head to turn around on Friday. Zverev managed to escape in three sets versus Alex De Minaur on Wednesday, and in doing so he not only managed to vitally conserve energy after two five-set thrillers but also overcome a rare bad serving day.

We can reasonably expect Zverev to serve much better here given his long track record of landing first serves, and if he's able to do that he should have no issues winning this one.

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Best Bet for Ruud vs Zverev: Zverev ML (-120 at FanDuel)

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