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French Open Women's Final Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Betting Odds, Picks

Publish Date: 06/07/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The women's final of the 2024 French Open will take place on Saturday with Iga Swiatek set to aim for a fifth Grand Slam title -- and a fourth here at Roland Garros -- against unsung Italian Jasmine Paolini.

(Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images)

The World No. 1 is off to a roaring start in 2024 and will carry a wealth of championship experience into this one against Paolini, who's playing past the second round of a Grand Slam for just the second time in her 10+ year career.

Will we see an upset of monumental proportions on Saturday to produce one of the unlikeliest Grand Slam champions in recent memory, or will Swiatek continue to take care of business?

Let's preview the 2024 French Open Women's Final between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini below and hand out a prediction and betting pick.

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IGA SWIATEK AT THE 2024 FRENCH OPEN

It's been a relatively no-nonsense run to the 2024 final here for Swiatek, who's dropped just one set en route to her fourth appearance in a final in five years. The Pole looked to be in serious trouble against Naomi Osaka in the second round, trailing 5-3 in the final set with Osaka just two service points away from a win, but as she's done so many times in the biggest tournaments, Swiatek dug deep and found a way to win.

Aside from that match, Swiatek hasn't dropped a set and has won all but two of those sets by a score of 6-4 or better.

She disposed of the tough Marketa Vondrousova in the quarters in just over an hour and navigated around some trouble against Coco Gauff in Thursday's semifinal to ultimately cash the Under on the match in what was an utterly impressive performance.

  • The thing to know in this match is that Swiatek has won this tournament three out of the last four years and has only ever lost at Roland Garros twice in her career.
  • What's more, one of those losses came in her debut here in Paris when she was just 17 years old.

She is quickly becoming the next Rafael Nadal with her run of dominance on these grounds, and she carries a wealth of Grand Slam experience into this one which her opponent lacks.

JASMINE PAOLINI AT THE 2024 FRENCH OPEN

Little was known of Paolini prior to this tournament, but the clay-court appreciators have known about her potential for years.

  • The Italian has been around the block for a while at 28 years of age, but something's seemed to click here in 2024.

She had never made it past the second round of a Grand Slam prior to this season, and owned just two career titles, but she found a way into the fourth round of the Australian Open in January and weeks later took home a 1000-level title on the hardcourts in Dubai.

So, Paolini is playing the tennis of her career at the moment, and she's always been filled with potential. She's got a lot of Ons Jabeur to her game in that she can play an exciting brand of tennis which comes with a host of winners off the forehand wing, galvanizing crowds left and right.

Her style lends itself to a lot of volatility as well, and she also prefers to play on the clay despite the fact that she goes for big shots often.

Paolini's claimed some big victories at this tournament, moving past two Grand Slam champions in Bianca Andreescu and Elena Rybakina and also took out an upstart Russian in Elina Avanesyan who's been playing some great ball this year.

She's had to gut out three matches of three sets as a result, and as someone who lacks wins at the Grand Slam level will likely be feeling a bit fatigued on account of all the tennis.

IGA SWIATEK VS JASMINE PAOLINI FRENCH OPEN WOMEN'S FINAL PREDICTION

I mentioned earlier that this would be a monumental upset, and it sure would be. Swiatek has not only lost just twice at the French Open but at 20-1 now on the clay has yet to lose more than two matches on the dirt in a year since 2019.

  • She's won four Grand Slams and the World No. 1 has only gotten better as the years have gone on.

Swiatek should claim her fifth Grand Slam trophy, and her fourth here in Paris, without much of a sweat on Saturday. She did struggle a bit against Karolina Muchova in last year's final, but Muchova not only carried much more experience into this match than Paolini does but has more talent than the Italian.

  • Her other two victories here were contested without much of a fight, coming in under 17 games, against relatively inexperienced players at the time in Coco Gauff and Sofia Kenin.

Paolini's yet to win more three games in a match versus Swiatek, falling twice in straight sets in a 2018 ITF event and at the 2022 US Open. We want to expect great things out of a Grand Slam final, but this one should be done and dusted quite quickly.

Swiatek shouldn't allow for the Italian to get much offense going off her strong forehand wing with the wicked topspin she's able to produce, and her returning this tournament has been magnificent in winning at least 50% of points on her opponent's serve over the last three rounds.

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Best Bet for Swiatek vs Paolini: Under 17.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

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