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Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier: betting odds and predictions for UFC 302

Publish Date: 05/31/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The UFC heads back to The Prudential Center in Newark, NJ from a jam-packed UFC 302 PPV event.

Headlining this fight card is none other than the undisputed lightweight champion Islam Makhachev who's looking to defend his title for a record-tieing 3 times when he takes on fan favorite and former interim lightweight champion Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier.

We take a look at this main event fight and give out our prediction and pick for this Makhachev-Poirier matchup.

(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Islam Makhachev (25-1) has been dominant over the last 9 years as he's now won 13 straight fights en route to becoming the undisputed UFC lightweight champion. He captured his lightweight title when he defeated the dangerous Charles Oliveira by submitting him in the second round via an arm-triangle choke.

Makhachev was then able to defend his lightweight championship not once but twice by defeating the former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. His most recent win over Volkanovski was a brutal one when he knocked him out with a vicious head kick in the first round.

Makhachev has learned under the tutelage of the greatest lightweight champion the UFC has had, the still-undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov. While they still possess the same background in Combat Sambo they fight completely differently.

Nurmagomedov is a fighter who looks to put pressure on his opponents and just brutalize them into a bloody pulp on the mat.

As for Makhachev, he comes with a more methodical approach to his game. He is by far the better striker of the two and is more willing to engage on the feet than Nurmagomedov would.

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Also, Makhachev doesn't use brute force and relentless pressure to take the fight to the mat as he utilizes trips, throws, and single-leg takedowns than he would a blast double leg like Nurmagomedov would.

In this matchup, Makhachev gets to face off a familiar foe of his longtime training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov giving him some quality insight coming into this fight. However, that doesn't make this fight easy by any means for the lightweight champion.

He will need to avoid making this a striking affair where Poirier will have the power advantage to put his lights out.

Makhachev is going to need to do what he does best and that is utilize his grappling and get this fight to the mat eventually finding the submission extending his winning streak to 14 in a row and defending his title for a 3rd time.

Dustin Poirier (30-8) now has the most knockouts in lightweight history with 14 and he will be looking to extend that UFC record when he challenges for the lightweight championship for one final time. The 30-fight UFC veteran will be attempting to finally close the chapter on his historic UFC career capturing the coveted undisputed lightweight championship which would be the longest tenure to reach an undisputed title in UFC history.

"The Diamond" is one of the most dangerous lightweights to ever grace the Octagon. He can beat his opponents anywhere they decide to take the fight as we've seen in his last two wins where he knocked out Benoit Saint-Denis and then submitted Michael Chandler before that.

In this particular matchup with Makhachev, Poirier is going to need to come in with the same gameplan he had against Khabib Nurmagomedov which was to avoid the grappling and land devastating shots on the feet. It'll be up to Poirier to keep this fight on the feet and at boxing range where he can work his crisp combinations along with his calf kicks to batter Makhachev. If he can do this he has a chance to shock the world and become the new undisputed lightweight champion.

UFC VEGAS 302: ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS. DUSTIN POIRIER FANDUEL ODDS FOR JUNE 1ST

MONEY LINE

  • ISLAM MAKHACHEV: -650
  • DUSTIN POIRIER: +440

PROPS

  • ISLAM MAKHACHEV BY POINTS: +420
  • ISLAM MAKHACHEV BY SUBMISSION: +100
  • ISLAM MAKHACHEV BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +320
  • DUSTIN POIRIER BY POINTS: +1700
  • DUSTIN POIRIER BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +700
  • DUSTIN POIRIER BY SUBMISSION: +2000

OVER/UNDER (ROUNDS TOTAL)

  • OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-166)
  • UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+130)

BEST UFC VEGAS 302 ODDS FOR ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS. DUSTIN POIRIER

  • Dustin Poirier is the underdog. Caesars Sportsbook currently has the best odds at (+450)

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  • Islam Makhachev is the favorite against Dustin Poirier. BetRivers currently has the best odds at (-590)

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  • DraftKings currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at 1.5 Rounds (-145) for the over, and (+110) for the under

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FINAL MAKHACHEV-POIRIER PICK & PREDICTION

This is a fantastic main event fight for this UFC 302 fight night event. Makhachev will be looking to tie the UFC record with the 3rd most title defenses in UFC lightweight history by doing what he does best and that utilizes his dominant groundwork when he steps in there this weekend against Dustin Poirier.

Meanwhile, Poirier will look to finally get over the hump and become the undisputed lightweight champion after 30+ fights with the organization.

For him to make that happen he's going to need to lay it all on the line and take it to Makhachev brutally knocking him out in the process.

Ultimately, it's going to be Makhachev who will be getting the better of Poirier once he's able to get the fight inside the clinch, and from there he should be able to replicate the same success Khabib Nurmagomedov did and eventually get the submission victory in three rounds or less.

FINAL MAKHACHEV-POIRIER PICK & PREDICTION: ISLAM MAKHACHEV BY SUBMISSION (+100)

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