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Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov: betting odds and predictions for UFC 302

Publish Date: 06/01/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The UFC heads back to The Prudential Center in Newark, NJ from a jam-packed UFC 302 PPV event.

Headlining this fight card is none other than the undisputed lightweight champion Islam Makhachev who's looking to defend his title for a record-tieing 3 times when he takes on fan favorite and former interim lightweight champion Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier.

For this article, we are taking a look at a heavyweight matchup that should bring a ton of fireworks between Jailton Almeida and Alexandr Romanov. We take a look at this fight and give out our prediction and pick for this Almeida-Romanov matchup.

(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Jailton Almeida (20-3) is coming off his first loss inside the Octagon when he was finished by Curtis Blaydes in brutal fashion with elbows against the fence. In that fight, Almeida was doing what he does best in round 1 and that was stifle his opponent with his relentless grappling pressure even taking down one of the best wrestlers in the division controlling him for the majority of that round.

However, in round two things took a turn for the worst as it seems like Almeida lost a lot of steam after grappling in round one. He went for an ill-advised takedown and was just holding onto the single leg against the fence and that is when Blaydes was able to take full advantage.

As Almeida was just stuck holding onto the single leg, Blaydes started to land numerous unanswered elbows to the side of the head until he crumpled and then the first was over.

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Almeida will be looking to get himself back into the thick of things in the heavyweight division when he takes on Moldava's Alexandr Romanov. Almeida is a world class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and it shows once the fight hits the mat. The way that he is able to flow and control his opponent's on the mat will come in handy against a fighter with the stature of Romanov.

While Romanov is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt in his own right and good grappler himself, he has only faced one high caliber grappler in his time in the UFC and that was against Juan Espino whom he had troubles defending the grappling against.

Romanov may have the power advantage on the feet but it will be Almeida who will be too quick to avoid any big shots thrown his way. If Almeida can avoid the big strikes from Romanov on the feet and takedown Romanov as he's taken down everyone else, he should control him for the majority of the fight or potentially finish it from there.

Alexandr Romanov (17-2) kicked off his UFC career with five straight victories with four of those coming inside the distance. Since his torrid start, he is now just 1-2 over his last three fights but he is coming off a dominant decision victory against Blagoy Ivanov in his last fight.

Romanov is much like his counterpart a dominant grappler that likes to utilize his size to take his opponents down and land vicious ground-and-pound or his favorite submission a Forearm Choke to get the job done.

He gets to take on fellow grappler Jaitlon Almeida who is a bit more technical when it comes to his grappling style. Almeida would look to use single and double leg takedowns to get his opponents to the mat and then stifle them with dominant control from top.

That's not Romanov looks to do as he is looks to use his brute strength to land his takedowns and when he gets his opponents down he wants to inflict as much damage as he can before they are able to scramble back to their feet.

Also, come fight time, Romanov will have a 30+ lbs advantage over Almeida as he weighed in at the heavyweight limit at 265 lbs meanwhile Almeida weighed in only at 241 lbs. That should help Romanov defend the takedowns, land some of his own, and potentially keep this fight on the feet where he has a striking advantage for the first time in his UFC career.

If Romanov can go in there and not allow Almeida to dictate where this fight takes place and lands takedowns of his own, he could potentially land another "King Kong" finish and extend his winning streak to two.

UFC VEGAS 302: JAILTON ALMEIDA VS. ALEXANDER ROMANOV FANDUEL ODDS FOR JUNE 1ST

MONEY LINE

  • JAILTON ALMEIDA: -300
  • ALEXANDER ROMANOV: +245

PROPS

  • JAILTON ALMEIDA BY POINTS: +380
  • JAILTON ALMEIDABY SUBMISSION: +170
  • JAILTON ALMEIDA BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +290
  • ALEXANDER ROMANOV BY POINTS: +900
  • ALEXANDER ROMANOV BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +550
  • ALEXANDER ROMANOV BY SUBMISSION: +950

OVER/UNDER (ROUNDS TOTAL)

  • OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-106)
  • UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-120)

BEST UFC VEGAS 302 ODDS FOR JAILTON ALMEIDA VS. ALEXANDER ROMANOV

  • Alexandr Romanov is the underdog. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds at (+245)
  • Jailton Almeida is the favorite against Alexandr Romanov. FanDuel currently has the best odds at (-300)
  • FanDuel currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at 1.5 Rounds (-106) for the over, and (-120) for the under
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FINAL ALMEIDA-ROMANOV PICK & PREDICTION

This is a fantastic main event fight for this UFC 302 event. Almeida will be looking to get back on track and continue his run in the heavyweight rankings, meanwhile Romanov will be looking to climb up the rankings with a big victory against the surging Almeida this weekend.

Ultimately, it's going to be Almeida who will be landing the takedowns early in this fight and while Romanov will have size on him, these takedowns should come a lot easier than they did against Blaydes who's arguably the best wrestler in the entire heavyweight division and from there Romanov will have trouble getting back to his feet or doing much off of his back and as the fight progresses Romanov will get more and more tired and that's when Almeida will take over to get a potential late finish or the nod on the judge's scorecards.

FINAL ALMEIDA-ROMANOV PICK & PREDICTION: JAILTON ALMEIDA (-300)

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