They don't want t0 make it easy on us this Friday with plenty of teams around the league waiting until the final hours to announce a starting pitcher. That won't stop us from finding the profitable spots on the card and getting you the information you need to win some baseball bets.
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
We'll be getting down on three different totals across the league tonight. I'm a believer in both pitchers in Boston as the Yankees and Red Sox renew their rivalry, but I'm far less trusting of those throwing in New York and Minnesota with some favorable spots presenting themselves for both offenses.
Let's dive further into the slate and give out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 14.
MLB Betting Resources:
MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS BOSTON RED SOX
Before we disparage some pitchers, let's talk about two going on Friday that I think will have more success than oddsmakers are leading on.
The first is Brayan Bello, and I'll admit this belief could come from a spot of bias. I've long been a fan of Bello ever since his breakout in Double-A a few seasons ago due to the fact that he can roll up ground balls like few else in the big leagues which has become imperative in today's game as most teams aim to hit fly balls and sell out for power.
That goes double in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, and triple when you're talking about a matchup with the Yankees.
Bello's had a pretty brutal stretch beginning in mid-May and wearing on into June where he's recorded an ERA well north of six runs, but an encouraging trend I'm following is with Boston's defense, which has somehow snuck up to seventh in Outs Above Average this month.
That'll be a big deal when you're discussing a guy that pitches to contact, and it's worth noting that even amidst a nightmare season Bello maintains a decent .259 Expected Batting Average and .417 Expected Slugging Percentage, often being done in by his defense.
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The young right-hander has not only owned much better numbers at home this season, but that's been a trend throughout his career as has his mastery of the Yankees, who he's held to five earned runs in five career starts, spanning 31 innings.
He's yet to surrender a home run in the matchup and has averaged just over one baserunner per inning, and I like his magic to continue here as he seeks some positive regression to the mean.
On the flip side, we all know by now how dominant Luis Gil is, and against a Red Sox team which has struggled mightily not only in taking walks but in limiting strikeouts, he should remain strong given his lone weakness is free passes and his greatest asset is punchouts. I like both to limit this to a low-scoring game.
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Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115 at
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MLB BEST BET FOR SAN DIEGO PADRES VS NEW YORK METS
This will be a revenge spot for former Padres prospect Sean Manaea, who has done a decent enough job in 34 2/3 innings against his old club with a 3.89 ERA, and perhaps that's why oddsmakers are so bullish on him Friday.
I'm not as keen on the Mets lefty, and happy to take this potential bait as we anticipate a potential slugfest.
- Manaea has been terrible this season with a 4.30 ERA and 4.44 xERA, weighed down by too many walks and some issues in limiting slugging.
He was terrible last season, terrible the season before, and you can make a case given his profile over the years that he's always been terrible. He found some competence for stretches of 2023 behind some more strikeouts and ground balls, producing a career-best hard-hit rate along the way, but he's gone backwards in his 12 starts so far.
- He'll be dealing to a Padres team which sits atop baseball in wRC+ over the last two weeks, striking out at an insanely-low 13.9% while producing a ton of extra base hits.
They may not grade out well against lefties, but that's due to a low Isolated Power -- something that's been a weak spot for this team up until a few weeks ago, so in time those numbers should turn.
- This should be the spot for that, and on the other side of the coin it's not as if the Mets aren't red-hot at the plate either with the third-best wRC+ in baseball over the last 14 days.
- They've been similarly strong in the power and strikeout categories and will meet a knuckleballer in Matt Waldron who's pitched to plenty of fly balls this year despite some acceptable expected stats.
I think the Mets and Padres should both find the seats on at least one occasion with the way they're hitting, and neither guy here has proven enough to warrant a total this low against two strong lineups.
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Best Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (-108 at DraftKings)
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BEST BET FOR OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS MINNESOTA TWINS
Simeon Woods Richardson is a very strange pitcher. He's been perceived as a somewhat highly-touted prospect, and I'm not entirely sure why. Maybe it's due to the fact that he was taken in the second round of the 2018 draft, perhaps it's the fact that the Mets selected him, or there's a chance people simply like his name.
- Regardless of the reason, he never peaked inside the top 60 of prospect rankings while he came through the minor leagues and never seemed to pitch all that well with a 4.28 ERA at the Double-A level and 4.40 in Triple-A.
That's why it's a bit puzzling he's had some early success in the bigs with a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts this year as a rookie, but the underlying numbers tell a bit of a different story.
- His 3.56 xERA seems fitting due to the fact that when the ball has come back into play he's been a firmly average pitcher and nothing more.
- He helps himself by walking few batters, but he's pitched to an exorbitant 31.6% fly-ball rate and few strikeouts.
If you want to stop the A's, you need to strike them out. They'll help you along the way, showing very little plate discipline, but they're capable of doing a lot of damage with the fifth-most barrels per batted ball in the big leagues and they're also hitting the sixth-most fly balls on average with a very strong 12% home run-to-fly ball ratio.
Minnesota is a friendly park to home-run hitters and with Richardson's affinity for pitching to contact this should be a solid spot to believe in Oakland's offense.
I'm just as big on Minnesota here, too, pushing into the top 10 of wRC+ in the last two weeks after returning Royce Lewis to the lineup.
Mitch Spence should be no match here with a worsening xSLG over the last two months which has been the result of steadily-rising barrel and hard-hit rates. I think both offenses should put on a show in Minnesota.
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Best Bet: Over 9 Runs (+100 at BetMGM)
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