Key Points
- Aaron Judge Hits Odds Against Padres at Yankee Stadium
- Dodgers vs Marlins Total Runs Pick for May 6
- Tigers vs Rockies Total Runs in Thin Air of Denver
We have reached the one-quarter mark of the 2025 baseball season.
It's that time of spring when we clear away some of the confusion and speculation and start to understand which teams and players are contenders, and which are pretenders.
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
We all knew Aaron Judge would be dangerous at the plate again this season, but who could have imagined that when the calendar changed to May, the Yankee slugger would have a batting average over .400?
That's rarified air, even for a giant like Judge.
Odds for Tuesday MLB games are from BetMGM Sportsbook
We pick five games, and also make one player prop pick. A player prop is a wager on the specific performance of a player, regardless of the outcome of the game itself.
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Best MLB Bets for Tonight's Games
LA Dodgers vs MIA Marlins Total Runs Over 10.5: +135
Stop worrying, baseball fans. The Dodgers are back up where they belong: leading the NL West with the best record in MLB. And the defending champs are doing it with offense.
LA has plated 89 runs in its last 11 games, for an average of 8.1 per game
BetMGM will pay out $135 for every $100 wagered on this game prop for total runs (MIA and LAD combined) for the Tuesday, May 6 game.
Miami is warming up with the bats too: 4.6 runs per game in their last eight games (even though they have a1-7 record over that stretch...ouch).
DET Tigers vs COL Rockies Total Runs Over 11.5: +185
Perhaps the most surprising team trend so far in 2025 is the home run production by Detroit. Last season, the Tigers finished 12th in the AL in home runs.
But the '25 Tigers are socking the baseball like the Detroit teams of old, when Cecil Fielder, Mickey Tettleton, Rob Deer, and Kirk Gibson were mashing the sphere at Tiger Stadium in the early 1990s.
Which is why I like the opportunity for the OVER on Total Runs from BetMGM sports betting app for tonight's game in the thin air of Denver.
Detroit will face the Rockies, with Chase Dollander on the mound, having allowed eight homers already this season, with a 6.75 ERA at Coors Field.
Detroit has hit 28 home runs in its last 20 games, the most over such a stretch since 2004
The power explosion is being fueled by a suddenly-hit Riley Greene, the resurgent Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter (also known by his alias, Enemy of Right Handed Pitchers).
Those three are on pace to hit 30+ home runs.
The Tigers rank second to the Yankees in the AL in slugging
Against the RHP Dollander, Carpenter, Greene, and Colt Keith (all left-handed power bats) will be in the lineup for A.J. Hinch and the Motor City Kitties.
TODAY'S BEST BET:
$100 on Alternate Total Runs Over 11.5, to win $185.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits: +155
Judge went hitless on Monday against the Padres, dropping his season average to .414.
Prior to being held hitless, Judge had produced 12 hits in his previous six games, maintaining a blistering pace that he can't hold up. Can he?
So far in 2025, Judge has played the entire season in a zone where the baseball seems like a beachball to the strapping right-handed slugger. The 33-year old hasn't sacrificed power for a high average: he's on pace for more than 400 total bases, a feat nearly as rare as a .400 batting average.
Only 19 players have managed to reach 400 total bases in MLB in a single season, for a total of 30 times.
The last was Shohei Ohtani just last year
Since 1941, when Ted Williams batted .400, no batter has managed to hit .400 and qualify for the batting title. In those eight-plus decades, only six players have had a .400 average as late as July.
Only two (George Brett in 1980 and John Olerud in 1993) have been hitting .400 in August.
In recent seasons, Steven Kwan and Luis Arráez have carried .400 challenges into June, in 2024 and 2023, respectively.
But, Judge will need to maintain a torrid pace for several more weeks before he gets into the conversation with Kwan, Brett, and others, like Stan Musial, who hit .376 after taking a .400 mark into mid-July in 1948.
Judge is seeking his first batting crown. He has three home run crowns
Only four Yankees have won both the home run title and batting title in pinstripes: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle.
How to Watch MLB Games on May 6, Tuesday
- Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins: 6:40 PM ETSNLA, FDSNFL
- Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox: 6:45 PM ETRSN, NESN
- Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays: 7:05 PM ETNBCSP, FDSNSUN
- San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees: 7:05 PM ETSDPA, YES, TBS
- Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves: 7:15 PM ETFDSNOH, FDSNSO
- San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs: 7:40 PM ETNBCSBA, MARQ
- Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins: 7:40 PM ETMASN, MNNT
- Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals: 7:40 PM ETCHSN, FDSNKC
- Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers: 7:40 PM ETSCHN, FDSNWI
- Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals: 7:45 PM ETSNP, FDSNMW
- Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies: 8:40 PM ETFDSNDT, COLR
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels: 9:38 PM ETSN1, FDSNW, MLBN
- New York Mets @ AZ: 9:40 PM ETSNY, ARID, MLBN
- Seattle Mariners @ ATH: 10:05 PM ETRSNW, NBCSCA
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