Best NRFI Bets Today
Welcome to the weekend! There's no better way to kick things off than by taking a look at the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
We'll have some great opportunities to get down on Saturday night, from an all-NL East affair in Philly to a rivalry in the Bay Area. Bobby Miller will also make his return to the Dodgers rotation, and might offer us a little bit of hope.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI picks and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Saturday, August 17th.
MLB NRFI Prediction for Nationals vs Phillies
The Nationals and Phillies endured a scoreless first to begin their series on Friday despite the presence of Patrick Corbin, and after cashing in on that I'll go back to the well with two stronger arms in MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez.
- Being left-handed puts you at an automatic advantage given the splits across the league are significantly cooler, but against the Nationals you're at an even greater advantage given they rank 25th in wRC+ against southpaws with a middling .111 ISO.
- Sanchez will deal to a lefty-heavy top part of the Nationals order in the first, carrying a solid ground-ball rate and firm command of the strike zone into this one.
- Both arms have cashed the NRFI in 74% or more of their starts, with Gore doing so in 83% of his starts for a 20-4 record.
His half is a little more dicey given the Phillies sit atop the league against lefties, but Kyle Schwarber has struggled in that split and has been striking out a bunch over the last two weeks which puts him in a tough spot against a capable strikeout arm like Gore. Trea Turner also remains ice cold, and it would seem the only man to fear atop the order is Bryce Harper, whose numbers are starting to wane.
I like two strong NRFI pitchers to do the job here.
NRFI Prediction: Nationals vs Phillies NRFI (-105 at BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Giants vs A's
We've got two arms that are far from household names working in this fun Bay Area rivalry game in Hayden Birdsong and Osvaldo Bido, but in a small sample we've seen that both of these arms are very capable of making us money.
- Birdsong has posted a 7-1 NRFI record to begin his big-league career, and has worked incredibly effectively to a .227 Expected Batting Average this season.
- His counterpart is 4-1 to the NRFI in his five starts, and owns a splendid 2.98 xERA through 39 innings between the bullpen and rotation.
The key here for the rookie Birdsong will be limiting home runs and extra bases. He's had trouble doing so this season, but the A's own just a .120 ISO in the past two weeks as guys atop the order like Lawrence Butler and Miguel Andujar have cooled off significantly over the past two weeks.
The job for Bido seems to be a bit tougher given the Giants sit 14th in wRC+ in the past two weeks but he's owned the stronger numbers of the two arms and aside from Tyler Fitzgerald the top of this order has struggled with LaMonte Wade's OPS falling from great heights in the past 14 days and Heliot Ramos hitting just .244.
I trust both of these pitchers in the first given the recent trends and their competence in beginning outings.
NRFI Prediction: Giants vs A's NRFI (-130 at BetMGM)
MLB NRFI Prediction for Dodgers vs Cardinals
The Dodgers are set to welcome back Bobby Miller into their injury-riddled rotation after he struggled so mightily at the big-league level earlier this year that he was demoted, but there's some hope here for the sophomore.
- Miller met sky-high expectations in his rookie year last season, and pitched to a stellar .210 batting average against in the first inning of his 22 starts, sporting a 3.27 ERA with just eight earned runs against him.
- His 2024 campaign didn't go according to plan, but he had his most promising start in over a month when he fell just short of a Quality Start eight days ago in Triple-A, continuing to roll up ground balls and struggling only with walks.
- The Cardinals are a team that flashes power and struggles against ground-ball arms, and on top of that have walked in a minuscule 7.3% of plate appearances over the past two weeks.
While the Cardinals -- particularly free-swinging leadoff man Masyn Winn -- should help Miller out with his walk issues, Andre Pallante should do the job for us in the top half of the inning with his 11-1 NRFI record.
His pedigree as a reliever has made for splendid starts to games, and trouble has befallen him later on in his starts. He's now cashed the NRFI in 10 straight and opposing pitchers shouldn't have to fear the top of the Dodgers order quite as much with Mookie Betts still shaking off the rust after a long injury layoff.
NRFI Prediction: Dodgers vs Cardinals NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)
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