Best NRFI Bets Today
We're set to wrap up a thrilling weekend of baseball in the major leagues, and there's no better way to say goodbye to the week than with the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
I'm incredibly interested in what should be a favorable matchup for both pitchers on Sunday Night Baseball between the Astros and Blue Jays, and I'm seeing some good value in both Robbie Ray and Bryan Woo late in the day. We'll also take a look at Brewers vs. A's.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Sunday, August 25th.
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Brewers vs A's
The Oakland A's have maintained a league-average offense over the last two weeks, so that's most of the reason that oddsmakers are skeptical of a slow start here in the Bay Area with the troubled Frankie Montas on the hill for Milwaukee.
- The top of the lineup, however, has left a bit to be desired. JJ Bleday continues to out-slug the world and tear the cover off the ball out of the third spot, but Brent Rooker has seen a significant down-turn in power over the last two weeks while Lawrence Butler has fallen off his torrid pace from earlier in the month.
Montas hasn't been great this year, but he does own a friendly 17-6 record to the NRFI this season and he's seemed to make some excellent strides since joining the Brewers at the trade deadline.
- The righty has now pitched to a 2.57 ERA in his four outings for Milwaukee, and outside of some issues with walks he's been a much better arm.
- In the first inning, specifically, he's allowed one runner or fewer in all but one of those four outings, which came against the Dodgers who are trotting out three surefire Hall of Famers at the top of the order.
I'm optimistic about Montas, and I'm surprisingly into the idea of betting on Joey Estes. He's now hit the NRFI in three straight games as he showcases much better numbers this month and the Brewers have stumbled to a poor 93 wRC+ in the last two weeks.
NRFI Prediction: Brewers vs A's NRFI (-110 at DraftKings)
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MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Giants vs Mariners
I love the conditions here for both pitchers -- and not just because we're playing in Seattle, which has been a NRFI bettor's paradise this season.
- Robbie Ray's now made six starts since coming off the injured list, and he's hit the NRFI in four of his last five.
- Best of all, he's still wearing an excellent strikeout rate over 33% which should work out very well against a Mariners team that leads the league in strikeouts this season.
- Seattle's also been in the bottom five of wRC+ versus lefties as opposed to 15th the other way around.
Ray will be greeted by a top of the order which has struggled mightily in the past two weeks. Victor Robles has stopped hitting with a .211 average in the last two weeks while one of the Mariners' hottest hitters, Luke Raley, will find himself on the bench as a left-handed hitter.
It's hard to believe in Robles or Julio Rodriguez, hitting .214 with a .071 ISO in the past two weeks, against a pitcher who seems to be putting it all together. It's just as hard to see it for San Francisco.
- Bryan Woo may not be finding strikeouts the way he did a yar ago, but he's limited walks which should remove some of LaMonte Wade Jr.'s luster atop the order, and he'll enjoy the fact that Tyler Fitzgerald's numbers are beginning to come back to Earth.
- Heliot Ramos is also now hitting just .234 in the past two weeks.
There may be some problems for Woo later in the order, and I do think he'll yield a couple of runs, but this one should be incredibly low-scoring and begin with a couple of zeroes.
NRFI Betting Prediction: Giants vs Mariners NRFI (-135 at Caesars)
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Astros vs Orioles
This is a pitching matchup that'd I'd ordinarily be smashing the Over on, but we do have to appreciate what both Yusei Kikuchi and Dean Kremer have done lately.
- Kikuchi has brought his strikeout rate up over 34% in his first month with the Astros, and with two lefties atop the order who have been struggling he should find himself a scoreless first.
- Colton Cowser has struck out in a poor 32.7% of plate appearances over the past two weeks while Gunnar Henderson's strikeout rate is up at 25%.
The best part of the matchup is that Kikuchi should pitch to a fair number of fly balls in an unfriendly park for home runs, and most of the damage the top of the order has done all year has come with the longball.
- On the other side of the coin, the Astros have been experiencing some depressed power numbers and continue to be impatient as their walk rate remains under 8%.
- Kremer should enjoy this, given his walk rate is up over 12% this month which has been the biggest reason for his struggles.
- Houston's leadoff man Jose Altuve has walked just 7.3% of the time in the last two weeks, while Alex Bregman is at 5.4%.
This isn't a very friendly first three, and all of them have admittedly hit the ball very well of late, but Kremer's had success pitching to fly balls in Baltimore before and shouldn't have to worry about populating the bases with some free-swingers atop the order for the Astros.
Kremer owns an excellent 16-2 NRFI record this year which is enough for me to take this underpriced line.
NRFI Betting Prediction: Astros vs Orioles NRFI (-120 at BetMGM)
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