Sports Betting Sites / Sports Betting News / Best NRFI Bets Today

Best NRFI Bets Today: The Arms to Back on Thursday, August 29

Kenny Ducey

LinkedInTwitterMedium.comTikTok

Sports Reporter | Capper

Publish Date: 08/29/2024

Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Best NRFI Bets Today

We've got a large slate of baseball to bet on Thursday, and while the majority of games are earlier in the day I think we're set up for a great run to bet on the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

I'll be going back to the well with the Braves and Phillies in what's a solid pitching matchup for both sides, and we'll also look at two trendy NRFI pitchers along with a couple of surprising arms -- all of which will be working in playoff-like atmospheres.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Thursday, August 29th.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Braves vs Phillies

The Braves and Phillies have found a bit of life at the plate lately, but that doesn't necessarily mean that this one will get off to a fast start.

Charlie Morton will be working on one of the better NRFI records in baseball, coming in at 18-6 in the first inning with a run of three straight zeroes.
Cristopher Sanchez has matched him with a 19-6 NRFI record and has gone under the first-inning total in two straight now with just six runners allowed in the first inning of his last five starts.

Both sides have been striking out over 24% of the time over the last week, which could be a differentiator here. Sanchez isn't normally a big-time strikeout arm, but he just punched out eight Braves in his last start and as someone who's been beaten by a succession of hits I think this one profiles well.

Despite some struggles, Sanchez's Expected Batting Average this month is just a fraction off his best month of the season, and while three of Atlanta's top four hitters have been hot they failed to come up with a run against Sanchez in the first inning last week. This is a team that likes to lift the ball and has struggled to make contact, so we should be in the clear.

Morton's been surviving off strikeouts, meanwhile, and as the Phillies have watched their strikeout numbers increase, one of the big culprits has been leadoff man Kyle Schwarber, who also isn't taking as many walks as normal in the last week. In fact, none of these top four hitters are -- a further feather in Morton's cap.

NRFI Prediction: Braves vs Phillies NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Blue Jays vs Red Sox

I'll admit, this Toronto offense is beginning to look a bit more menacing these days with an influx of power and limited strikeout numbers. With that said, it's hit just .229 against fly ball arms this year and should get Kutter Crawford nice comfortable here as he continues to stabilize.

Crawford has now thrown up a scoreless first inning in four straight and stands an impressive 18-9 to the NRFI.
While the Jays have ben menacing in the power department, George Springer has hit just .130 in the leadoff spot in the last week while Daulton Varsho has struggled with strikeouts and Spencer Horwitz has posted a meek .111 ISO.
That should make life difficult for Toronto, considering Crawford has done a good job of racking up punchouts and has pitched very well to contact with a .226 xBA.

Bowden Francis is the interesting component here, but he's been unmistakably better this month with a 1.32 ERA in 27 1/3 innings, and his biggest gains have come in the strikeout department as he's registered 34 during that span.

Boston's been struggling all year to make contact, and in the last week have punched out in nearly 29% of its plate appearances.

Wilyer Abreu, Triston Casas and Tyler O'Neill have been massive strikeout victims towards the top of the order which should help Francis get out of trouble if he does find himself in some, and it's also worth noting with the lefty-heavy top of the order that left-handed hitters are just .198 against Francis this year.

Francis has now found the NRFI in three straight and is 5-3 to the NRFI overall this year, which is good enough for me.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Blue Jays vs Red Sox NRFI (-115 at FanDuel)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Royals vs Astros

The Royals and Astros have been tearing the cover off the ball lately, but that shouldn't necessarily mean a ton of runs in the first inning of this one.

On the hill for both sides will be two competent arms in Brady Singer and Hunter Brown, and while Singer did struggle last time around he did throw up a remarkable seventh straight NRFI.
Brown, meanwhile, now stands 17-8 to the NRFI this year and will draw a Royals team that has gone under the first-inning total in 55% of their games this year.

Both teams have hit ground-ball pitchers well, but neither of these two profile as prototypical ground-ballers with above-average strikeout stuff in the last month and excellent expected numbers.

That should help Brown with Michael Massey coming in on a stunning run of form in the contact department and plenty more of his teammates doing damage on contact. Rolling up grounders will be paramount in limiting the damage.

Singer will also draw a tough test, but the strikeouts we mentioned above should come in handy with Yainer Diaz striking out in over a quarter of his plate appearances in the last week and he has the chance to induce friendly contact with Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve slumping.