Best NRFI Bets Today: The Arms to Back on Monday, September 2

Best NRFI Bets Today

We'll be treated to a full day of baseball to celebrate Labor Day, and there's no better way to celebrate than by betting on the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

We'll show some love to two pitchers in the Midwest who have their flaws, but should get off to some strong starts before heading out West to take a look at some very talented and capable arms.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Monday, September 2.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Cardinals vs Brewers

It's not as if I like betting on Freddy Peralta, but I think Monday's game in Milwaukee against the Cardinals should have him warranting your consideration.

• The righty has not only been on fire of late, allowing one run over his last three starts, but St. Louis has hit a but of a rut offensively over the last week with a noticeable downturn in power.
• The Cardinals' .130 ISO should have you lining up to bet on Peralta here, considering his biggest weakness over the years has come in his inability to keep the ball in the yard.

Standing at 18-9 to the NRFI this year, I like Peralta to come through for us against a Cardinals team that has hit that bet in 60% of their games. I'm just as excited about Andre Pallante, too, who comes into this one with a 12-3 NRFI record.

The converted reliever has done what many converted relievers do, which is starting games off strong. His heavy ground ball approach should work well against the Brewers, who have hit fly-ballers better this season and have been heavily reliant upon power to get them through the past two weeks.

NRFI Prediction: Cardinals vs Brewers NRFI (-135 at DraftKings)

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MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

This is an interesting one to look at, because I do see a clear edge with the Dodgers in this one and believe Eduardo Rodriguez will get picked apart by a surging Dodgers lineup.

That's not to say we can't cash in on an Under bet here.

• Rodriguez has converted a scoreless first in each of his four starts this season, and will start with the upper hand given his platoon advantage against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman atop the order.
• It's not much, but it's reason for hope -- and there shouldn't be much required given just one runner has reached base against Rodriguez in the first inning of those outings.

If he can take care of the Dodgers, I do think Jack Flaherty can do his part. He's not only gone 18-5 to the NRFI this season with back t0 back flawless opening frames, he should also have what it takes as a ground-ball arm to limit the power-heavy Diamondbacks atop the order.

Expect Rodriguez's end of the bargain to be upheld, despite the tall task ahead of him.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks NRFI (-110 at DraftKings)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Mariners vs A's

If they keep hanging these lines on the NRFI for the Mariners, I will keep hammering them. It doesn't matter if it's a game played in Seattle, a good matchup is a good matchup -- and Seattle has been one of the friendliest teams in the league to us with a 79-58 NRFI record.

• Osvaldo Bido will take a 7-1 NRFI record to the hill on Monday in the midst of what's been an extremely promising second half.
• The right-hander has brought his xERA down to a shiny 2.61 in 56 total innings this year, and while the sample size is small we did see flashes of potential in his arm last year with the Pirates.

I've ben incredibly impressed with his ability to generate strikeouts ever since moving to the rotation, and we do know that's the name of the game when you're facing the Mariners -- who lead the league in punch out rate. The other great thing here is that Bido is a fly-ball arm, and as a fly-ball team Seattle will play right into his hands in what's nearly as poor of a home run park as the one it calls home.

• I think Bido's incredibly undervalued here, because we have Logan Gilbert headed to the hill on the other side of the matchup.

The right-hander owns a stellar 24-3 NRFI record this year and will look for his fifth consecutive scoreless first on Monday. Oakland has caught fire at the dish, sure, but it still has struck out in 23.5% of plate appearances in the past week of play as it out-slugs the entire world.

Gilbert's specialty has been rolling up ground balls, nearly leading all pitchers with a .252 wOBA against him this year as he displays brilliant command of the strike zone and enters this one with just one home run against him in four outings.

This should be the man to slow Oakland's roll, and if he can this one should come in comfortably.

NRFI Prediction: Mariners vs A's NRFI (-125 at DraftKings)

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