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Best NRFI Bets Today: The Pitchers to Target on Friday, September 20

Kenny Ducey

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Sports Reporter | Capper

Publish Date: 09/20/2024

Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Best NRFI Bets Today

Happy Friday! There's no better way to celebrate ringing in the weekend of another critical week in the big leagues than with the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)

We'll focus in on a fun pitching matchup between two young arms in Boston, attempt to exploit two cold offenses in Cincinnati and eye a contrarian spot to end the day which many may be overlooking.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Friday, September 20.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Pirates vs Reds

We've discussed Nick Martinez a lot this season as we've looked to profit off the NRFI market. The converted reliever has been at his best the first time through the order, and as a result has pitched a scoreless first in 10 of his 14 outings this season.

On Friday, Martinez will draw a Pirates offense which has continued to disappoint with a 15th-ranked wRC+ over the last two weeks and has lacked quality high in the order.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa should play right into Martinez's hands here as a swing-happy leadoff man against a contact-oriented strike-thrower, and after him we'll see a slumping Oneil Cruz who owns an 89 wRC+ in the last two weeks, hitting just .235.

This is a Pirates team which has gotten some nice contributions further down the order, and we can say the same for the Cincinnati Reds on the other side of this one.

Mitch Keller will put a solid 21-8 NRFI record to work here, squaring off against Jonathan India and his .200 average over the last 14 days followed by a weaker version of Elly De La Cruz who's hit .229 over that same time

The Reds own the fourth-worst wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks, and with two struggling offenses we should arrive comfortably at the NRFI here.

NRFI Prediction: Pirates vs Reds NRFI (-115 at Caesars)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Twins vs Red Sox

I'm a very big fan of both pitchers here, at least in this specific matchup.

On one side, we'll watch Richard Fitts look for a third NRFI in his first three big-league starts against a Twins team that's fallen off at the plate in the last two weeks, hitting .210 with a measly .123 Isolated Power.
Fitts has struggled with walks at the big-league level, but he demonstrated expert control in the minor leagues and will have a great deal of help here with Minnesota walking in just 6.4% of plate appearances during this time.

While this is a great spot for Fitts, it should be equally as fruitful for young David Festa.

The highly-touted prospect sits in the top third of all pitchers in whiff and chase rates, and that's delivered him a strikeout rate that's quickly approaching the elite number of 30%.

Boston's been one of the guiltiest strikeout teams in baseball this season, and has now punched out in a league-worst 29% of plate appearances over the last two weeks to just a 6.5% walk rate.

Festa's lone detractors this season have been power and walks, and while Boston can pack a punch to exploit the former it lacks discipline and should allow Festa to get hot as he strikes out a host of hitters and cruises through the first.

You're getting an excellent deal if you want to back both pitchers in any capacity, and this may be my favorite way to play the game.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Twins vs Red Sox NRFI (-115 at FanDuel)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Angels vs Astros

We saw both Tyler Anderson and Justin Verlander struggle in the first inning of their last starts, which came against these very same offenses. So, why the NRFI here?

Well, Houston's offense has quickly fallen from its perch since we last saw these two sides play a series, struggling to hit the Padres in some very friendly matchups.
The Astros have watched Jose Altuve hit just .231 in the past seven days, while Alex Bregman is down at .208 and Yordan Alvarez is a poor .154 over this span.

Anderson's a capable arm who's pitched well to contact around some perfectly average marks, and in the first inning in particular he's worked a scoreless frame in 69% of his outings.

Justin Verlander's been working through some issues on the mound, meanwhile, and while I do think the Angels have a way into this game it will likely come later on.

Taylor Ward, the defacto big bat in this lineup, is hitting just .240 over the past week while Zach Neto has reached base just 14.8% of the time and Brandon Drury in 11.1% of plate appearances.

This isn't an offense to fear in this market, and I'm a believer in Verlander -- at least to start things off. This will likely be another tight, low-scoring affair like the one we saw on Thursday.