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Best NRFI Bets Today: The Pitchers to Back on Monday, September 9

Kenny Ducey

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Sports Reporter | Capper

Publish Date: 09/09/2024

Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Best NRFI Bets Today

The regular season is winding down in the big leagues, but there's still money to be made on the diamond. As many teams jockey for the playoffs, we'll take a look at NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning -- to kick off our week on Monday.

(Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

We'll look at a few reliable arms like Paul Skenes and Charlie Morton who should find themselves in some low-scoring affairs to start the week before moving to the later games and backing the suddenly-reborn Reid Detmers in a great spot versus the Twins.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Monday, September 9.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Reds vs Braves

It certainly hasn't been the greatest season in the world for Charlie Morton, but at 40 years of age it's hard to find too much wrong with a perfectly-average 4.24 ERA which has stood the test of another heavy workload.

Morton's 4.24 ERA has hardly made him a liability this season, and he's done well to level out after a brutal outing against the Brewers on August 8 with a 3.25 ERA over his last five starts.
In this time, Morton's owned a palatable .250 Expected Batting Average and an improved .394 xSLG, but the biggest story has ben his 36 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings.

With 11.7 strikeouts per nine, coming in well above his mark of 9.4 for the season and his 8.7 per nine over his career, the righty is finding a way to exploit positive matchups.

The Reds certainly qualify here, striking out in 23.1% of plate appearances over the last two weeks with a poor .121 Isolated Power, and early in the order Morton will be greeted by a slumping Jonathan India, hitting .186 in the last two weeks, and two big-time strikeout candidates in Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson.

If Morton's stuff keeps playing up, he should eliminate at least one of these batters on strikes and help Nick Martinez finish off the rest of the NRFI.

Martinez owns a 9-3 NRFI record, hitting it in two straight outings, while Morton's at 20-6 for the season with a streak of five.

The converted reliever has shown promise early in games before running into trouble later on, and Atlanta continues to get nothing out of the leadoff spot with Michael Harris II still trying to find his footing after missing plenty of time due to injury and Jorge Soler, hitting .158 in the last two weeks, is searching for answers.

NRFI Prediction: Reds vs Braves NRFI (-110 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

Ballislife Bets MLB Computer Picks (Best MLB Bets Today)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Marlins vs Pirates

You might be wondering why a game started by Paul Skenes, featuring two of the worst offenses in baseball, is priced to generously to the Under in the first.

Well, that's because the Marlins have quietly begun to hit, ranking 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, while the Pirates have been just fine five spots behind them.

I'm still not ready to call this one a YRFI, however, considering Skenes stands 14-5 to the NRFI this season and his counterpart, Valente Bellozo, stands at 7-2.

Skenes should cut right into this Marlins offense, considering it's produced a surprising number of hits but has still suffered greatly in plate discipline with a 24.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.

Like Morton above, Skenes will start off this game with plenty of strikeout opportunities with Connor Norby rocking a 34% strikeout rate during the timeframe we laid out and Xavier Edwards checking in at 22.2%

The only thing to fear here would be Jake Burger, considering he's limited punchouts, but he's hit just .220 in the last two weeks as the strength of this lineup as come later on in the order.

Bellozo, meanwhile, been a nightmare in the first inning despite pitching to some poor expected numbers through 42 2/3 professional innings. The task at hand shouldn't be an overly difficult one with Isiah Kiner Falefa mired in a slump and the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds failing to impact the baseball.

The Pirates rank second-worst in the league in runs per game in the first inning, leaving me no choice but to take the NRFI here.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Marlins vs Pirates NRFI (-115 at BetMGM)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Angels vs Twins

If you haven't heard, Reid Detmers is back.

The left-hander has never really found his footing across four big-league seasons as he's attempted to translate the strikeout prowess from his college days at Louisville into the bigs, but after three stellar outings down at Triple-A he sent a message in his first start back.

Detmers, promoted to the major leagues once again early in August, racked up 10 punchouts on the road against the Dodgers, allowing just two runs on three hits and two walks in the process six days ago.

Now, he'll take that form into another road outing against a strong offense in Minnesota, but this is one which could see another fast start for the left-hander.

The Twins have cooled down over the last two weeks, ranking 27th in wRC+, but the biggest story as it relates to this one is their awful 25.9% strikeout rate and low 6.3% walk rate.

Detmers has been a nibbler on the mound as he hunts for punchouts, struggling to limit walks, but with what we're seeing out of Minnesota he should have a fair chance of moving his NRFI record to a perfect 14-0 here.

The Twins get worse against southpaws, swapping out two of their top three hitters in the order as the platooning Eduoard Julien and Trevor Larnach sit, and Carlos Santana will move up and bringing a .211 average in the last 14 days into this one.

L.A., meanwhile, is one of the few teams that's ranked lower than the Twins offensively over the last 14 days and it would sit even lower if not for the heroics of Mickey Moniak out of the five spot.

Nolan Schanuel remains in the top three of the order here despite enduring a terrible slump with a .196 on-base percentage over his last 12 games, while Zech Neto has suddenly stopped crushing the ball to boot.

This should be a favorable spot for both arms, as the ever-improving David Festa looks for a ninth NRFI in his first 10 big-league starts.