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Best MLB Bets Today: The Offenses to Back on Wednesday, July 10

Publish Date: 07/10/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We've got a full slate of baseball in store on Wednesday beginning in the afternoon, and as the day wears on I'm eyeing a few profitable spots as some trends begin to develop with some talented pitchers.

(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

I'll be fading a couple of highly-touted arms in Philly as both the Phillies and Dodgers have begun to wake up at the dish before I heap more praise upon a young Tigers righty. Then, we'll go out West as we hunt down a NRFI prediction today.

Let's get right into the slate and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 10.

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MLB BEST BET FOR LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES JULY 10

The Phillies got Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber back into their lineup on Tuesday night, and immediately they looked like the dominant offense they were just a month ago.

  • With the pair reinserted atop the lineup, Philly got to struggling youngster Bobby Miller and put up 10 runs in a commanding victory, riding ace Zack Wheeler to a one-sided victory.

I think the good times should continue here against Cristopher Sanchez, who is coming off the worst start of his career.

It's certainly not as if I expect Sanchez, a talented arm, to continue pitching like that -- but there were some troubling signs in that outing versus the Cubs which might continue with the way the Dodgers look at the plate.

  • L.A. is third in the league with a stunning .810 OPS against ground-ball arms like Sanchez and sit atop the league in wRC+ to lefties.
  • Not only has that OPS been a firm 86 points better than its number against fly-ball arms, but Sanchez is a guy who allows a ton of contact on account of his top-tier ground-ball rate which is over 60%.

The expected numbers aren't great, and he's been aided by an excellent Phillies defense, but when you look at the way the Dodgers are doing damage on contact and continuing to exhibit patience, he's certainly vulnerable here with his walks coming back into play.

  1. Gavin Stone also had a tough time in his last outing, and while he's been excellent around that performance he pitches to a wealth of fly balls and hard contact which shouldn't work out very well in a small ballpark in Philly.
  2. The NL East powerhouse should look the part with two of its three best bats back in the order, and I think the ball will be flying in a slugfest.
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Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS DETROIT TIGERS JUL 10

Perhaps it's the fact that he's a baby-faced assassin out there, but Reese Olson simply doesn't get the respect he deserves.

  1. The right-hander has exhibited a knack for inducing contact on the ground this year and limiting the walks around some improving strikeout numbers, leaving his Expected ERA in a good place at 3.48.
  2. He's had his fair share of struggles this year, but over the last four outings he's lasted 24 innings and allowed just five earned runs on 16 hits and five walks.

The Guardians may hit the ball hard, but they're not a bunch that walks a whole lot and as a team with a newfound love for home runs they've actually put up a much better OPS against fly-ball pitchers this season by a decent 20 points.

On top of that, their Isolated Power has fallen to .148 in the last week which should mean Olson can once again pitch to contact -- especially at Comerica Park which ranks 24th in overall Park Factor.

I'll admit, my first instinct here was to take the Under -- but I'm not sure I can fade the Tigers with the way they're hitting.

A team ranked just 25th in baseball with a wRC+ of 90 this season has broken out over the last week with a fifth-ranked 132 wRC+, driven by a stunning .240 ISO and a .273 average.

  1. Sure, Tanner Bibee is an excitable pitching prospect, but his hard-hit rate jumped up over 46% in hit last start versus San Francisco and overall his numbers have been on a poor trajectory over the last two outings.
  2. Honestly, they were already heading the wrong way in mid-May, and after a couple of good starts -- one of which came against the lowly Mariners -- they're coming back up.

Detroit should be more than capable of keeping up the hot hitting with some talented youngsters getting more opportunities, and with some run support I think Olson is headed for another quality outing.

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Best Bet: Tigers ML (+124 at DraftKings)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB BEST NRFI BET TODAY

I'm not always the biggest fan of paying this kind of price to back the No Run in the First Inning, but it's hard to argue that either offense is in a favorable spot on Wednesday in San Diego.

Petco Park plays almost as favorably to pitchers as T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which is to say that it's a delight for fly-ball pitchers. Both men here have pitched to a plethora of contact in the air and neither team has done much in the power department.

  1. Michael King's boasted a solid 27% strikeout rate this season and has only really been burned by the longball, and against a Mariners team which is starved for contact and striking out at the worst clip in the league, he should be in a safe spot to make it out of the first inning alive.
  2. Miller's been the worse of the two pitchers, but he should generate plenty of early swings from a Padres team that's walking at a troubling sub-5% rate over the last week and doing little with the ball in play.

He's been a maestro when it comes to getting flyouts, and I think we'll see plenty of those to start.

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NRFI Prediction: Mariners vs. Padres NRFI (-135 at BetMGM)

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