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Best MLB Bets Today July 2: The Totals with Value on Tuesday

Publish Date: 07/02/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

There are a ton of exciting matchups to watch in baseball on Tuesday, so naturally we're going to take a look at the most un-exciting bet in baseball and look to some pitchers who should work in low-scoring games.

(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles should be in a dream spot pitching in Seattle, but his offense can't say the same given its love affair with home runs.

There's also a rookie who will be making his first start in Chicago I'd like to back, and if two Under bets are going to put you to sleep we can keep you awake later on in the night with a Moneyline play in Oakland.

Let's explain the above and get right into our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, July 2.

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MLB BEST BETS FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS CHICAGO CUBS

I'm very excited to see what Phillies youngster Michael Mercado can do on Tuesday night in his first-ever start at the big-league level. The 25-year-old was a bit lost in the Rays' system, leading Tampa Bay to end his development and ship him off to Philadelphia, but he's found new life with his new team.

  • Mercado pitched to a stellar 1.71 ERA in 47 1/3 down in Triple-A this year, forcing the Phillies' hand once some injuries began to mount in the starting rotation.
  • He has plenty of upside in the strikeout department, as he showed for years in the Rays' system, but this season he's put some of the punchouts aside and has learned the art of pitching to contact on the ground.

The Cubs are struggling at the dish right now, hitting just .228 in the past two weeks with a low .140 Isolated Power, and while they've walked a ton -- something Mercado has struggled with -- I don't think their profile is overly terrifying for a pitcher who's looked unbelievable this year at the Triple-A level and one who can play up to Chicago's ghastly 26% strikeout rate in the last 14 days.

  1. On the other side of the coin, the Phillies seem to be missing the services of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, scoring just four runs in the first two games they played following injuries to those two before a better showing on Sunday.
  2. That came against a bad pitcher in Roddery Munoz and a taxed bullpen, and the conditions for offense against Hayden Wesneski shouldn't be quite as friendly.

Now only is Wesneski a perfectly average arm, but he'll have the benefit of pitching in a park which doesn't allow many homers -- and we know the Phillies thrive in the power department, taking full advantage of their friendly home park.

I think this is too high of a total for two guys who should be set up for success.

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Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS SEATTLE MARINERS

It's not exactly a novel concept to think a game played at T-Mobile Park will be low-scoring, but I do think this pitching matchup more than classifies as one which should produce yet another Under.

  • On one side you've got Grayson Rodriguez, a player who has been somewhat stellar in his second big-league season. He's pitched slightly beneath his 3.89 xERA, sure, but that's been thanks to an excellent defense behind him.
  • Not only will they have an easier task here against a Mariners team which continues to be the worst in baseball at striking out, but they also will benefit from playing in a stadium which kills fly balls.

Rodriguez has posted high strikeout numbers and allowed a large complement of fly balls, so this matchup should play right into his hands.

  • On the opposite end, George Kirby knows a thing or two about this park given he's pitched to a 2.34 ERA in Seattle versus a 4.11 ERA on the road.

Kirby is a fellow fly ball-oriented arm, and while the Orioles lead the way in home run-to-fly ball ratio this year their offense should cool significantly given the overwhelming nature of the park factor here.

The last time they played in a similarly-unfriendly park was about a month ago in St Louis, where they scored just eight runs in three games.

I expect yet another compelling pitcher's duel here.

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Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB BEST BETS FOR LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS OAKLAND A'S

To round out the day, I'm going to have a long look at Jose Soriano. He's a very interesting case, given he's done little to really prove he's a great talent in many aspects of the game, but he does have one of the highest ground-ball rates in the league at over 60%.

  • That should work wonders here against an A's team which is just 22nd against ground-ballers and will be facing an Angels defense which -- while bad -- has shown slight improvements in June.
  • He's done a great job of producing expected outs on contact with a .233 Expected Batting Average to go along with a perfectly average barrel rate, and that should put a wrench into Oakland's plans here.

Mitch Spence isn't one of my favorite pitchers, and while he offers some upside on contact like Soriano by favoring the ground ball, the Angels rank 10th in the league in average against ground-ball types, slugging .445 to boot, which leaves their numbers in the fly-ball split in the dust.

They've also been hitting the ball quite well over the last week or so to take six of their last seven, and Spence's lack of strikeouts should help an offense which has struck out a ton this season immensely.

Give me the better offense here which should pile up hits on the road to take this one behind a surprising success story.

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Best Bet: Angels ML (-110 at FanDuel)

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