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Best MLB Bets Today: Expect Low Scoring on Saturday, July 6

Publish Date: 07/06/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

Saturday looks like an excellent day to bet on baseball with games beginning in the afternoon and wearing on into the night, and we'll be taking a look at a fun nightcap in the big leagues for some best bets today.

(Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

I'm still backing Ranger Suarez despite a tough last outing against the Marlins, given he'll face a cold Braves team -- and with a surging starter on the opposite end of the matchup we may see a low-scoring affair. If that wasn't enough, I'll take a look at a second Under before heading out to the last game of the day for a NRFI prediction.

Let's get right into the slate and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 6.

FanDuel
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MLB BEST BET FOR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS ATLANTA BRAVES

I'll admit, I was skeptical of Spencer Schwellenbach at first. The right-hander had an extremely short stay in the minor leagues prior to making his major-league debut to mixed results, so I anticipated a bit of a learning curve for the rookie.

  • Well, he's accelerated his timeline a bit by pitching to a ton of ground balls at this level, and over the last three outings we've seen his great strikeout potential come to fruition with 20 punchouts in 21 innings.

That should put him in a good spot against the Phillies, who have an OPS 32 points lower against ground-ball arms than against fly-ball types.

They've also suffered some well-documented injuries to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber which has put the top of the lineup in flux and while they've remained relatively afloat over the last week they've struck out in a stunning 27% of plate appearances.

The Braves have been cool at the plate, meanwhile, with a wRC+ of 93 in the past week and have to take on Ranger Suarez here, a pitcher who's historically pitched well in this series with a 3.23 ERA in 53 career innings versus Atlanta and some great showings in the postseason to boot.

  • He also owns a 3.86 ERA over his career in Atlanta.

The Under should very much be in play here, and I'd take it down to eight runs.

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Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS COLORADO ROCKIES

An Under at Coors Field? Well, it may not be that crazy on Saturday night.

In a shocking turn of events this season, Austin Gomber has not only been effective but has figured out how to pitch at home.

  • He wears a solid 3.92 ERA at Coors Field, leaving his 5.44 ERA on the road in the dust, and in pitching to fewer fly balls he should have the tools to combat a Royals team leading the league in fly-ball rate this year.

The Royals have been abysmal at the dish lately, ranking 21st in wRC+ over the last week and posting a weak .161 Isolated Power with a very low walk rate under 6%, signifying that they will swing at just about anything.

They're at a .158 ISO on the year and just .138 against left-handers, so even in Colorado I'm not convinced they will be leaving the yard much here.

On the opposite end, meanwhile, Seth Lugo has quite enjoyed Coors Field with a 3.21 ERA over 14 career innings here and last year spun seven stellar innings on the road against the Rockies with just two earned runs and seven strikeouts.

  • He continues to pitch to a ton of ground balls and get outs on contact thanks to his amazing defense, and that should continue here with the Rockies hitting just .227 over the last week.
  • I recognize why this total is high -- the Royals like to hit fly balls and theoretically are stronger than Colorado.

They do struggle against southpaws, however, and I think Gomber's figured out a thing or two. The Rockies are worth a shout on the moneyline, but this total is more than reasonable.

BetMGM
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Best Bet: Under 10.5 Runs (-115 at BetMGM)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

MLB BEST NRFI BET TODAY

We saw some fireworks on Friday night in San Diego as the Padres rallied back after a six-spot in the ninth inning to win 10-8, but it's worth noting that this was just a 7-2 game heading into the final frame. Arizona's offense went backwards after a blazing last week of play against a pretty mediocre arm in Randy Vasquez, who used his spacious home park to his advantage with plenty of flyouts, and now they'll see another fly-ball arm in Matt Waldron who owns some ever-improving numbers on contact.

Christian Walker may be looking like the second coming of Barry Bonds right now, but even he was held in check by a park this large on Friday.

  • Corbin Carroll continues to struggle as well, hitting .208 over the last week, and even Ketel Marte looks a bit flat with a 116 wRC+ in that split -- a product of doing very little when the ball comes back in play and batting like a singles merchant.

With the conditions for power very unfriendly, Waldron should make it out of the bottom of the first unscathed, and I also have faith in Brandon Pfaadt to work a clean first against a Padres offense which had cooled a bit over the last couple of weeks prior to last night's showing.

It was the bottom of the order which did the damage against Arizona on Friday, as Jackson Merrill and David Peralta keep raking, while the top of the lineup remains in something of a funk. It took Jurickson Profar five plate appearances to record a hit and Jake Cronenworth was held to just one hit.

This is our best hope of a NRFI today on the late slate.

FanDuel
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NRFI Prediction: Diamondbacks vs. Padres NRFI (-122 at FanDuel)

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