Best NRFI Bets Today
We're hitting the home stretch in this major-league season, and as the matchups get tighter and scoring comes down we'll take a look at the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning -- to profit off the games.
(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
I'll be looking at three high-stakes games later on in the night, beginning with the indomitable Zack Wheeler before moving to a great series in San Diego and finishing up with the NRFI paradise known as T-Mobile Park.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Tuesday, September 17.
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Phillies vs Brewers
After teasing us a bit at the end of the summer, the Brewers have fallen right back into a slog offensively. They own a measly 92 wRC+ over the past two weeks with a brutal 23.6% strikeout rate, setting things up for a tough first inning against Wheeler.
- The Phillies righty now owns a 25-4 NRFI record this season, cashing it in six straight outings, and hasn't allowed a baserunner in the first inning over his previous three.
- Wheeler's remained a dominant strikeout arm, sitting down 27.9% of the batters he's faced this season, so he should find comfort in the Brewers' recent contact issues which have started at the top of the order.
- Jackson Chourio has seen his punchout rate increase, as has William Contreras, as the pair have fallen victim in over 22% of their plate appearances
With Brice Turang making plenty of contact, but doing little with it to the tune of an .093 Isolated Power over that stretch, Wheeler should be in the clear here.
The bigger question is about Frankie Montas against a hot Phillies offense, but the task at hand could be a bit easier with Bryce Harper seeming to tweak something on a swing over the weekend after a two-homer game in New York.
- Montas' ability to pitch to contact should suppress some of Philly's power, and if Harper fails to produce, Nick Castellanos and his dreadful numbers over the last 14 days will be right behind him.
The righty has worked to a surprising 21-6 NRFI record this season with a run of five in a row, so there's nothing to be surprised by when it comes to this price.
NRFI Prediction: Phillies vs Brewers NRFI (-138 at
FanDuel)
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MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Astros vs Padres
A very big development took place on Monday night as the Padres took the first of this pivotal three-game series. Luis Arraez, who has helped carry this team over the last month, hurt his knee on a slide at home plate and was forced to exit the game after he hobbled into second base in his next at-bat.
- Losing Arraez would be a huge blow for this offense, particularly when you consider the bottom of the order has done the bulk of the damage.
- He's been the lone constant atop the lineup, and as he's expected to miss this one the task at hand will get even easier for Hunter Brown.
The Astros righty now owns a positive 20-8 NRFI record this season, looking for a fifth straight scoreless first after allowing just two batters to reach in the first inning of his last four starts.
- We saw a slow start to this game last night as runs were at a premium in a playoff-like series for both sides, and we should expect much of the same tonight.
Michael King has been a good pitcher in the first frame in his own right, going 23-5 to the NRFI with a streak of four in a row. His task should be even easier with Yordan Alvarez hitting just .241 over the past week of play and Yainer Diaz looking overmatched by the soft-tossing Yu Darvish on Monday.
While Jose Altuve's been hitting the ball well, the others in the top five have been highly volatile and leave much to be desired. These are two competent and trendy pitchers who should get us home here.
NRFI Betting Prediction: Astros vs Padres NRFI (-140 at FanDuel)
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Yankees vs Mariners
To close things out we'll return to Seattle, where the NRFI has cashed in 67% of games to tie for the league lead.
- It's a park which kills almost every ball hit into the air, which is why few have been able to have success here, and for one of the most extreme fly-ball arms in the game that should be excellent news.
- Luis Gil has a deadly blend of elite strikeout numbers and an inordinate number of fly balls which should make for a very easy outing against Seattle, which is notorious for its strikeouts and flyouts.
As the Mariners continue struggling in those areas, Gil should have no issues in the first -- where he's now worked a clean frame in 85% of his starts.
- On the other side, we've got Bryan Woo who will put his 16-3 NRFI record to work.
The right-hander hasn't been quite as extreme in the fly-ball department as his counterpart, but he's avoided ground balls enough this year at a 42.7% clip which should help him pitch to contact against a team that thrives against ground-ball pitchers.
New York's ISO has dropped to .096 in the past two weeks as it's continued to rely upon walks and timely hits, and that's not a strategy that will bring this team runs with consistency on Tuesday.
Woo's sporting the lowest walk rate in the league with an excellent .219 Expected Batting Average and should enjoy this one considering Juan Soto's gone ice cold in the past week of play, hitting .125, while the Yankees have continued with the revolving door in the leadoff spot to poor results.
NRFI Prediction: Yankees vs Mariners NRFI
(-140 at Caesars)
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