Best NRFI Bets Today: The Matchups to Target on Saturday, July 20

Best NRFI Bets Today

It's a Saturday, and what better way to get the weekend than by betting on No Run in the First Inning? We're here to break down the very best spots to bet on the most exciting line in baseball.

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

I'm not deterred from Friday's game in Pittsburgh and will once again be backing both pitchers there -- this time of even better quality -- to get us off to a good start. Then, we'll examine the surging Max Scherzer and preview a NRFI-friendly spot in Seattle to take us home.

Let's get into those bets and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Saturday, July 20.

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Phillies vs Pirates

Friday's game got off to a hot start, and while we expected both pitchers to come hot out of the gates we ultimately missed a NRFI on Friday by quite a large margin.

That's not going to deter me here from backing the NRFI today in Phillies vs Pirates. The road side is at a bit of disadvantage here away from their friendly home park which rewards their power bats, and while they'll draw a right-hander here, it's Luis L. Ortiz.

The youngster has been surprisingly effective for the Pirates this year with a handsome .234 Expected Batting Average and has pitched to a enough ground balls here at 44.1% to successfully throw the Phillies off their game. He's also done an exceptional job of limiting walks, which is something that Philly -- and the top of the order -- has relied on heavily to start games.

• The Phillies have a poor record to the NRFI, hitting it just over 50%, but Ortiz has yet to allow a run in the first inning in three starts.
• Cristopher Sanchez, meanwhile, owns a 1.50 ERA in the first inning this year and will face the Pirates, ranked second the league in hitting the NRFI.

This is a Pirates team that has looked better of late, but it's mainly stemmed from an influx of power. Sanchez isn't a guy who will give up many longballs, sporting a great .355 Expected Slugging Percentage and one of the highest ground ball rates around. I like two zeroes to start here.

NRFI Prediction: Phillies vs Pirates NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Orioles vs Rangers

Mad Max is back.

The future Hall-of-Fame starter will toe the slab once again on Saturday, and he's owned a neat-and-tidy 2.96 ERA through his first five outings of the year. While we haven't seen the strikeouts out of Scherzer that we've grown accustomed to, he's traded these in for some outs through the air which have seemed to be no fluke given his .225 Expected Batting Average and .381 Expected Slugging.

He'll face an Orioles team which hasn't scored a run in the first inning for over 75% of their games and one which has cooled off significantly in July with a 20th-ranked wRC+ in the month and a drop in the power numbers.

• The top of this order has struggled, too, with Adley Rutschman hitting just .136 this month and Gunnar Henderson walking in under 2% of his plate appearances next to some depressed power numbers.

I believe in Scherzer, and I certainly believe in Grayson Rodriguez despite a volatile first year and a half in the big leagues.

He's found the secret sauce when it comes to pitching to fly balls, but he's also found a much better 26.7% strikeout rate which should come into play against Josh Smith and Wyatt Langford who have been strikeout machines in the middle of the order.

Rodriguez has only allowed three hits in the first inning over his past four starts with one walk and will work against a Rangers team which is 28-18 to the NRFI at home.

NRFI Prediction: Orioles vs Rangers NRFI (-122 at FanDuel)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Astros vs Mariners

While I do think that the Mariners will eventually get to Framber Valdez and win this game, I don't have the utmost confidence in that happening right out of the gate. Seattle, after all, owns one of the very worst offenses in baseball and will be trotting out a top of the lineup including J.P. Crawford, hitting .170 this month, and Josh Rojas who's hitting .189.

• Seattle has scored a run in the first inning in under 27% of its games and at its home field of T-Mobile Park holds a 36-13 NRFI record.

Valdez should fall victim to a barrage of hits at some point here, but it's abundantly clear that -- outside of Julio Rodriguez -- the strength of this offense is in the heart of the order.

Then, there's George Kirby, who should dazzle here as a fly ball-oriented arm against an Astros team that is not only in the bottom 10 of the league in wRC+ this month but one which is hitting far too many fly balls to get much done at a park which is near-impossible to find the seats.

Back both starters to get off to a good start before the Mariners take control.

NRFI Prediction: Astros vs Mariners NRFI (-130 at BetMGM)