Best NRFI Bets Today
We're set to cap off an exciting weekend of baseball around the major leagues, and there's no better way to do that than with the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
We'll be diving into a somewhat bizarre pitching matchup between the Rangers and Yankees before looking into a less-than-glamorous matchup in the American League. To cap things off, we'll end the slate with a NRFI bet on Sunday Night Baseball.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing MLB NRFI predictions for Sunday, August 11th.
MLB NRFI Prediction for Rangers vs Yankees
The Yankees' struggles against left-handed pitching are well-documented, and we saw as recently as Saturday just how miserable they've been in this split. Despite grading out as one of the best offenses in all of baseball this season, they're just 15th in wRC+ to southpaws and will be in a prickly position against Andrew Heaney on Sunday.
- Heaney's far from a special talent with a middling 3.98 ERA, and hasn't even been a great arm in the first inning. With that said, he's ben trending in the right direction this year with a solid .241 Expected Batting Average and with expert command of the strike zone should have what he needs to exploit a great matchup.
- The Yankees will likely begin this one with two left-handed hitters in Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto, to boot.
As for the Rangers, though they broke out in Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader that came late against two middling bullpen arms. A pretty flat offense will meet Marcus Stroman here, and while the right-hander has ben down on his luck of late he's had to face some teams that fare incredibly well against ground-ball pitchers like him.
The Rangers rank just 20th in OPS versus ground-ball pitchers this year and are hitting a poor .232 against them, which leads me to believe Stroman's ground ball prowess will lead him to success here -- particularly with one of the best infield defenses in the game behind him.
NRFI Prediction: Rangers vs Yankees NRFI (-105 at
Caesars)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for A's vs Blue Jays
I'm not a noted fan of Chris Bassitt, but it's hard not to like him on Sunday afternoon against the Oakland A's.
The right-hander hasn't been much of a strikeout pitcher for the entirety of the season, but he's struck out six or more in four of his last five outings which is worth noting with the A's ranking among the worst in the league in punchouts. The righty has also begun to bring his Expected Batting Average down in recent starts, coming in under .200 last go around, and with that I think he should master a struggling offense which has ranked 26th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
- Of particular concern here is the top of the A's order, which has lost its luster now that Lawrence Butler is hitting just .190 in the past two weeks with an unsightly 29.5% strikeout rate.
- This is an Oakland team which has failed to score a run in 78% of its games this year, ranking fourth-worst in the league.
With Bassitt in control, I've got similar confidence in JP Sears. No, he hasn't been any better than Bassitt this season, but the pair of them have still cashed the NRFI in over 70% of starts and the task at hand shouldn't be overly complicated for Sears against a Toronto team ranked 21st in wRC+ to lefties.
Toronto has been a bit better offensively of late, but atop the order we see a couple cold hitters in George Springer and Daulton Varsho with a lefty following them in Spencer Horwitz. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. could certainly be an issue here, but other than that both pitchers should be in the clear to get this one going with a scoreless first.
NRFI Prediction: A's vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Mets vs Mariners
The Mariners have been one of the friendliest NFRI teams in baseball this year, ranking fifth with a hit rate of 60% and 70% here in Seattle, and they should once again be primed to help us out on Sunday night.
- T-Mobile Park isn't a stadium that's kind to fly balls, which should aid Luis Castillo in this matchup. The right-hander's pitched to slightly more fly balls than average over the last couple of seasons and will meet a Mets team flaunting two big fly-ball hitters atop the order in Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez.
Castillo may be a so-so 17-7 to the NRFI this season but he should begin this one with a few positive stylistic matchups between those two and Brandon Nimmo, who presents a strikeout artist with a potential victim in the first.
On the flip side, Luis Severino is a stunning 20-2 to the NRFI this year and will be taking aim at one of the worst first-inning offenses in the game, which has now been getting waning results from Victor Robles after this hot streak.
Neither lineup really scares me here in a pitcher's park, especially given the arms they'll be facing. Back this highly-profitable trend to continue.
NRFI Prediction: Mets vs. Mariners NRFI (-135 at DraftKings)
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