Best NRFI Bets Today: The Pitchers to Back on Sunday, August 18

Best NRFI Bets Today

It's been a fantastic weekend in the major leagues, and to wrap things up on Sunday we'll take a look at the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

We'll be treated to not one but two pitcher's duels on this slate which we'll attack in the first inning, and there's one game between two poor offenses I think should sneak under the half-run in the opening frame.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI picks and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Sunday, August 18th.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Mariners vs Pirates

The Mariners and Pirates have been two of the friendliest teams in baseball to NRFI bettors, so why not fire up another on Sunday in spite of a lackluster pitching matchup?

1. Seattle enters with a 73-51 record to the NRFI this year, ranked fifth in the league, while the Pirates sit second with a 76-46 record to hit the bet in 62% of their games.
2. The Mariners will throw George Kirby here, who's arguably been their top arm this season. He has gone 19-6 to the NRFI while his counterpart, Jake Woodford, is 3-1.

• The right-handed swingman doesn't exactly have the prettiest numbers in the world, but he's started games out well at the very least, and in his five-year career he's flashed plenty of competence.

Woodford will deal to a Mariners offense that's been down on its luck lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ over the past week with a brutal .134 ISO and .171 average. I'm not sure even a wobbly starter would have much trouble with this team right now.

NRFI Prediction: Mariners vs Pirates NRFI (-120 at FanDuel)

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Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Dodgers vs Cardinals

One puzzling trend that's developed over the past month or so is the Dodgers' rising strikeout rate. They've historically been excellent in this category, but as the weeks go on they now find themselves in the middle of the league for the entire season.

1. That's got me excited for Sonny Gray here, considering he's working on a career year in punchouts with a 30.8% strikeout rate at 34 years of age.
2. Gray has struggled with home runs and barrels this season, but will step into a home run park which is incredibly forgiving to pitchers like this.
3. Given what we've laid out, it won't shock you to hear the right-hander has an exceptional 2.66 ERA in St. Louis this year.

I trust Gray here against a top of the Dodgers order which is still trying to find synergy after returning two big names in recent weeks, and I certainly trust Clayton Kershaw against a Cardinals team that is just 27th in wRC+ to southpaws this year.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Dodgers vs Cardinals NRFI (-125 at Caesars)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Yankees vs Tigers

Marcus Stroman has one major defect, and that's the fact that as a pitcher who relies on groundouts he'll run into some pretty terrible matchups he's got no way out of.

That's what happened against the Red Sox and Blue Jays a couple of weeks ago, two teams who have been excellent against ground-ballers, but surely we won't see this on Sunday night.

1. Of the 30 major-league teams, Detroit ranks 29th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers and is hitting a putrid .206 in the split -- almost 60 points lower than the league median for reference
2. The Tigers also have some frequent groundout victims like Parker Meadows and Colt Keith ready to greet Stroman, who has cashed the NRFI in a decent 65% of starts.

New York, meanwhile, has continued to struggle mightily with left-handed pitching and is constantly shuffling the top of its order to poor results. It hasn't found a competent leadoff man, and against one of the best pitchers in the American League it'll be hard to scratch one across in the first.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Yankees vs Tigers NRFI (-113 at FanDuel)

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