Best NRFI Bets Today
It's a Friday in the major leagues, and there's no better way to celebrate than by taking a look at NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning -- to kick off our weekend.
(Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)
I'll be eyeing what should be an excellent pitching matchup between two young guns in Landon Knack and Spencer Schwellenbach, breaking down two additional National League East arms and backing two bad offenses to help us win some money.
Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Friday, September 13.
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Marlins vs Nationals
If you're new here, I'm the DJ Herz guy. I've been tantalized by the left-hander's ability this season, using his cross-fire delivery to post a stellar 28.9% strikeout rate through 16 starts and pitching effectively to contact with a spicy .212 Expected Batting Average.
- Now, Herz will draw a Marlins team which has been struggling for contact all season long. They're punching out in 24% of plate appearances in the second half, and rank dead last in wRC+ to left-handed pitching.
- Miami ranks 22nd with a poor .229 xBA against southpaws over that same time, and it continues to walk at a poor clip of under 8% this year.
Herz's lone weakness has been walks, as he hunts punchouts, so he should get plenty of aid from the Marlins here -- particularly in the first inning when he faces Connor Norby, who's struck out in 41.3% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and a top two in the order which has walked in fewer than 3% of appearances in the last two weeks.
- Edward Cabrera is a pitcher with a strikingly similar profile, possessing some great strikeout upside and good numbers on contact around one of the worst walk rates in the league.
- Washington's walk rate is under 8% in the last two weeks of play as well, and its .141 Isolated Power shouldn't do much to scare us off backing Cabrera to come through a clean first.
CJ Abrams has been moved back into the leadoff spot, but continues to struggle with just a .171 average in the last two weeks while Dylan Crews has slowed down significantly and James Wood flashes a disastrous strikeout rate next to a shockingly-low .083 ISO.
This one should set up quite nicely for both arms.
NRFI Prediction: Marlins vs Nationals NRFI (-120 at
BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Dodgers vs Braves
It's about time we give Landon Knack some respect.
The 27-year-old rookie has had a hard time locking down a rotation spot with the Dodgers this season, but it's been through no fault of his own. He owns a great 3.46 Expected ERA next to his mark of 3.00 through 54 innings, doing his best to pound the zone with strikes and pitch well to fly balls.
- The Braves rank in the bottom five of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks and are just 14th in OPS to fly-ball pitchers this season.
- As this team continues to search for answers after a plethora of major injuries, the top of the order has failed to deliver around Michael Harris II. The dangerous Marcell Ozuna has sported a pedestrian .244 average in the last two weeks with a meek .044 ISO while Jorge Soler has struggled to get on base.
Knack teased us with an excellent eight-strikeout performance last time out after his re-promotion to the big leagues, and he could be in store for a spicy first inning on account of Atlanta's struggles atop the order and its inability to make consistent contact.
With Knack going 7-2 to the NRFI and Spencer Schwellenbach standing at 15-2, we should have a good shot to make this happen. The righty is coming off his worst outing of the year, but around that has done more than enough to prove he's one of the very best arms in the NL.
Navigating the top of this Dodgers order has seemed like a boar on paper, but we've had plenty of success fading them with the NRFI this season and should have a great spot to do so once again with Shohei Ohtani struggling with strikeout issues and Freddie Freeman coming back to Earth a bit in the last two weeks.
NRFI Betting Prediction: Dodgers vs Braves NRFI (-110 at DraftKings)
MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for A's vs White Sox
It feels like we'll need to take our chances with two more struggling offenses here as the lowly Chicago White Sox play host to an A's team which has been competent, yet flawed over the last two weeks.
To begin matters, Garrett Crochet will once again get the ball as he continues to shove early in games and leave after a short stint on a pitch count.
- The left-hander's restrictions won't come into play here with a first-inning bet, and his incredible 34.7% strikeout rate should play up against an order that has been terribly undisciplined of late with a shocking sub-5% walk rate in the last two weeks and a whopping 26.6% of plate appearances ending in a punchout.
Crochet has now worked to a 24-5 NRFI record this season and should find plenty of outs given Oakland ranks 23rd in runs per game in the first inning this year.
- On the flip side, Brady Basso came out of nowhere to spin six scoreless frames against the Tigers last week in his first big-league start, following up on two solid months down in Triple-A.
Chicago ranks dead last offensively this season, and has scored the fewest runs per game in the first inning this year with an average of just 0.34.
- It has one left-hander in the top three in Andrew Benintendi to create a platoon advantage here, and the team receives a significant downgrade when it takes two important left-handed bats out of the top of the order and replaces them with the struggling Bryan Ramos and Lenyn Sosa.
We should roll to a scoreless first here to take us home.
NRFI Prediction: A's vs White Sox NRFI
(-130 at BetMGM)
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