Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
After what seemed like an eternity, baseball is back. We'll be treated to a full slate of games across Major League Baseball on Friday as many evenly-matched teams get some weekend series started and some division rivals battle it out in the standings.
(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
The St. Louis Cardinals look to be in a favorable spot in Atlanta, and they'll be my first underdog pick today along with the Colorado Rockies out West. Then, we'll head to Seattle for a tried-and-true bet which has hit in 70% of games.
Let's get right into the slate and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 19.
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MLB BEST BET FOR ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS ATLANTA BRAVES
We're expecting Spencer Schwellenbach to get the ball once again for the Atlanta Braves, and while he's made some marked improvements in six starts since a rocky beginning to his big-league career I'm not too convinced this is the spot to play the man who was rushed to this level from Double-A.
Fly balls did Schwellenbach in earlier in the year as he made to tough turns to begin his rookie campaign, and in each of his last three starts we've seen that number jump up, eclipsing 30% in his most recent outing.
- Fly balls are generally not a winning strategy in Atlanta, given Truist Park ranks inside the top 10 in Park Factor for home runs
- The Cardinals have done well to produce a 119 wRC+ at the dish this month in reversal of their fortunes to begin the year and should welcome the opportunity to drive the ball and add some power to the plethora of hits they've collected.
Schwellenbach has been a middling arm on contact, at best, with a .247 Expected Batting Average and has pounded the zone with few walks and a similarly-poor strikeout rate.
The competent Cardinals should stay hot here, and with perhaps a longball or two look even more menacing.
On the opposite end, we know two things to be true about Sonny Gray -- he will pitch to ground balls and strikeouts.
- This is a lethal combination against the Braves, considering they're striking out in a concerning 26.2% of plate appearances this month and producing worse numbers when forced to put the ball on the ground.
- The Braves are slugging 40 points worse against ground-ballers, ranking 19th in OPS in this split compared to 13th against fly-ball types.
With the way both starters are running, and with the park giving aid to a hot St. Louis offense, I think the Cardinals are the easy call in this one.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML (+110 at
BetMGM)
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MLB BEST BET FOR SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS COLORADO ROCKIES
A year ago, I never thought I'd be waxing poetic about Cal Quantrill. This guy was one of the very worst pitchers in baseball, and was so bad that it appeared his time in the big leagues was set to come to an end after five seasons.
Well, the Rockies decided to give him one last shot to save his career, and he's answered the call.
Behind an ever-improving sinker, Quantrill has produced the highest ground-ball rate of his career at 46.8% and brought his boisterous .291 Expected Batting Average from a year ago down to a more reasonable .265.
Now, that's nowhere near good, but in bringing his Expected Slugging down almost 80 points to the league average and producing more strikeouts he's created a pretty easy profile to read.
- Quantrill will be in danger against teams which like to put the ball on the ground, falling victim to a barrage of hits, but he no longer seems to be a liability to teams that like to elevate and celebrate.
The Giants are certainly one of these teams, ranking among the top teams in fly-ball rate and converting plenty of those into home runs. As a launch angle-happy team, they're expectedly not nearly their best against ground-ball types.
- San Francisco boasts a .720 OPS versus fly-ball pitchers, but is sporting just a .651 OPS against ground-ballers.
Coors Field isn't exactly the best spot to fade the Giants, but Quantrill has done well to pitch around the issues that have perennially plagued hurlers at this park.
San Francisco's starter, Kyle Harrison, has pitched similarly after struggling to limit fly balls throughout a rocky first year and a half at this level.
When he was sent down to the minors earlier this season, however, the message from the Giants seems to have been to pitch to more contact on the ground considering he's been doing that quite well since his promotion.
The potential issue here is that a red-hot Rockies offense, one of the great stories late in the first half, has been slightly better than the league average in hitting .246 against ground-ball arms with a stronger on-base percentage to boot.
They've also been considerably stronger against lefties with a 32-point jump in OPS, making them a live underdog on Friday.
Best Bet: Rockies ML (+140 at BetMGM)
Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our
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section.
MLB BEST BET FOR HOUSTON ASTROS VS SEATTLE MARINERS
I'm not reinventing the wheel here backing a low-scoring game in Seattle, but it would seem for all the world that we'll be in for another snooze-fest at the plate.
- The Under has now hit in 70% of games played at T-Mobile park this season, beating the total by an average margin of -1.1 runs.
- On top of that, both of these teams look primed to put the ball into the air a considerable amount in a park which kills fly balls and turns them into outs.
The Astros have favored contact on the ground this season, but in the month of July they're all the way up in fifth when it comes to rate of contact in the air. The Mariners have been up there all season long, too, as they continue elevating the ball for what seems like a fifth straight season.
Houston ranks 20th in wRC+ this month and has lost its ability to hit the fastball, ranking 26th in run value.
That's of great importance here given Luis Castillo's main struggle this year has come in allowing a higher number of expect hits on his four-seamer, which has lost 1 mph of velocity, but if he continues to pitching to contact in the air as he's done over the last two years and limit the damage on the fastball, there shouldn't be many ways in for Houston.
- On the other side of the coin, Hunter Brown has looked like a changed man after posting an 11.84 ERA in April.
He's gotten better with each month, bringing his xBA all the way down to a neat .223, and while some fly balls have caused him to take a slight step backwards in the last two outings those fly balls will work wonders here in Seattle.
Brown's also been pitching to an increasing number of swings and misses, leading to more strikeouts, and against the guiltiest strikeout team in baseball I see no reason why he'd have many issues keeping this one low-scoring.
Best Bet: Under 7 (-102 at DraftKings)
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