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MLB Best Bets for June 21: Moneyline and NRFI Picks Today

Publish Date: 06/21/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Friday's always a great day to bet on baseball, and tonight should prove no different with so many great arms taking center stage.

(Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

I'll be heading to New York to bet on what's probably the best matchup of the day between the Braves and Yankees, and I'll also be championing a righty in the midst of a stellar season before searching for our NRFI bet today.

Let's get into the slate and give out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 21.

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MLB BEST BET FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS DETROIT TIGERS

If you've been living under a rock, or perhaps aren't subjecting yourself to watching the Chicago White Sox, it seemed that Erick Fedde is the latest veteran who learned to pitch in Korea.

  • The 31-year-old was banished from the league after posting a 5.81 ERA in Washington two years ago, and after refining his craft in the KBO he's returned to dazzle in Chicago with a 3.09 ERA in 15 starts.

He's worked pretty deep into games, and the strikeouts have begun to really pile up which has created a nice marriage with his low walk rate and great expected numbers.

  • In pitching to a .235 Expected Batting Average and a ton of ground balls, Fedde should once again be counted on to pitch well Friday against a Tigers team which has struggled to an 81 wRC+ over the last two weeks with an objectionable .103 Isolated Power and a high 24.2% strikeout rate.

Their approach is totally broken and they've struggled for hard contact, which should work in the righty's favor.

Then, there's Jack Flaherty -- who's been transformed back into a Cy Young Award contender over in Detroit, where the Tigers have done a brilliant job developing arms of late.

  • The White Sox have been one of the biggest strikeout victims in baseball at 23.6% this year and not much has changed over the last two weeks, other than a slight injection of power.

That shouldn't worry us here, though, given the Tigers play at a park that is very pitcher-friendly, and Flaherty's .343 xSLG has come in around 60 points lower than average.

There's nothing this man can't do -- he may be a perfect pitcher at the moment -- and now he'll draw arguably the worst offense in the game. Give me the Under.

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Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-110 at BetMGM)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR ATLANTA BRAVES VS NEW YORK YANKEES

We've arrived at the most fun matchup of the day, which will take place in the Bronx between the Braves and Yankees. While this was ticketed as a tantalizing series when the schedule came out, however, the state of both teams is quite different than we anticipated at this point in the season.

Atlanta has lost Ronald Acuna, Jr. for the season and has lost its way entirely at the plate at this point.

It's ranked just 16th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a bevy of strikeouts and few walks, sitting among the worst teams in the league in each category, and while it's done a decent enough job of getting the ball in the air the plate discipline has really held this team back.

That should be music to Carlos Rodon's ears, considering his whiff and chase rates have risen dating back to the start of May and his strikeouts are starting to follow suit.

He may pitch to a ton of fly balls, which makes for a potentially tricky start, but with the swing-and-miss stuff beginning to return for the once-elite arm I think it's only a matter of time before some of the bad luck which has made his numbers appear pretty mediocre over the last month and change will turn.

Given the nature of Atlanta's team, which is swinging at everything, I suspect this will be a fantastic showing for the left-hander.

  • The other lefty here, Chris Sale, has been indomitable this season which is why we see a line like this.
  • With that said, his xSLG has jumped up to .406 in June with teams registering barrels at a very high clip at over 10% and that should make for a tough one given New York's beastly 16% home run-to-fly ball ratio over the last 14 days and its excellent strikeout numbers.

I think you want to take the considerably stronger offense with all things equal in the pitching matchup, at worst.

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Best Bet: Yankees ML (-112 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

BEST NRFI BETS TODAY

Our quest to find the best NRFI bet on Friday will take us to Cleveland, where Yariel Rodriguez will be making his return from injury for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The righty just completed his rehab assignment with flying colors, throwing 10 innings of two-run ball this month with 21 strikeouts, and that should have him ready to shove for at least a few innings here before the Toronto bullpen takes over.

Cleveland remains one of the stronger teams in baseball, but the swing-and-miss ability of Rodriguez promises to create an unsettling atmosphere for the top of the Guardians order -- one which has not yet seen Rodriguez.

In these cases, it can take a team a few innings to get a feel for a starter, and given the season he had prior to going down and the starts he's had as he worked his way back, I think he's a man we can trust here.

Carlos Carrasco isn't quite the same kind of guy, but his task will be worlds easier with Toronto experiencing a massive slump over the last month and change.

Focusing on the last two weeks, it has hit just seven homers and is sporting a .231 average, a brilliant outlook for a strike-thrower who's been burned a bit by the long-ball this year.

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T&Cs apply, 21+

NRFI Predictions: Blue Jays at Guardians NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)

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Allan HoweDan TraceyGarrett KermanKenny DuceySara Jane Gamelli
Allan Howe
Allan Howe
Editor
Dan Tracey
Dan Tracey
Sports Writer
Garrett Kerman
Garrett Kerman
Sports Reporter | Capper
Kenny Ducey
Kenny Ducey
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Sara Jane Gamelli
Sara Jane Gamelli
Sports Writer | Bettor

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