We've arrived at a captivating Saturday slate in the major leagues, and after a very fun and full day of baseball on Friday I'm ready to once again lock in some winners for the weekend.
(Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)
I'll be backing one of my favorite arms in a big revenge spot early in the afternoon before taking a look at a game which might feature two struggling pitchers but should be a hard one to score runs in. Then, we'll once again go hunting for our best NRFI bet of the day.
Let's get into the slate and give out our MLB Best Bets for Saturday, June 22.
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MLB BEST BET FOR SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
This matchup, as we alluded to earlier, is all about revenge. Jordan Hicks was once a prized Cardinals pitching prospect, but after they failed to figure out a way to capitalize on his blazing velocity, he was shipped away to Toronto last season.
As wise teams do, the Giants decided to bring him in and use their expert tutelage to transform him into a member of their rotation, and the results have certainly been there.
Hicks may not be on the most exciting run of his career with plenty of struggles over the last few weeks, but he's pitched admirably considering he's been battling what seems like a constant illness.
- His sinker is still working well and producing ground balls, and against a Cardinals team which is slashing just .251/.288/.389 over the last two weeks of play I think he should once again be set up for success.
- Yes, he'll be pitching away from his spacious home park, but Busch Stadium profiles similarly and will feature a Cardinals team that's walked in a striking 3.9% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks.
I'm not quite sure I've ever seen a walk rate that low in a two-week span, and it should work wonders here considering Hicks' recurring issue has been in issuing free passes.
With a surging offense behind him, which has been right around the top 10 in the league in run production this month, I think Hicks will exact some revenge here.
- San Francisco will also be contesting this one against Miles Mikolas, who has continued to throw very hittable strikes this year, carrying with him a .259 Expected Batting Average and .440 Expected Slugging.
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Best Bet: Giants ML (-105 at
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MLB BEST BET FOR MINNESOTA TWINS VS OAKLAND ATHLETICS
This one really pains me, because I'm not a fan of either Bailey Ober or JP Sears. With that said, the matchup here has to call for an Under in Oakland.
That's because over the last three seasons, this park has been downright impossible to hit home runs in with the second-worst rank in Park Factor. Both men have pitched to bevvy of fly balls in 2024, and while that generally is not something I love to bet on, this is the right park to bet on two guys who are in love with launch angle.
The stronger of the two offenses here is certainly the Twins', given they sit atop baseball in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but they've been slightly off their game versus lefties and have been heavily reliant on power.
In fact, you can say that for both of these teams, considering they rank in the top five of fly-ball rate for the season, and with that in mind it's very hard to see the ball coming back into play on the ground a ton in this one.
I certainly like the Twins a little more here, but the price is exorbitant considering Ober has been a shaky option on the hill for Minnesota. He should have a good way in here with his middling strikeout rate playing up against an A's team which is fanning a ton, and that makes me like this number even more.
This is certainly a bit too high, and while the number is understandably inflated due to the performance of these offenses, they're not going to be able to play to their strengths in Oakland.
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-122 at FanDuel)
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BEST NRFI BETS TODAY
- What did we learn from Friday's Braves-Yankees game? Well, for starters, the Braves -- even mired in a bit of a slump -- are still a very powerful team which will put the ball in the air a ton and convert those batted balls into home runs at a high clip.
- We also learned that Aaron Judge may still be feeling the lingering effects of the hit-by-pitch to his hand a few days ago given his poor line, and Anthony Volpe continues to be a bit less than the hitter he was earlier in the month.
That should all amount to a matchup on Saturday that is friendly to both starters, at least as we get things started.
Marcus Stroman is an extreme ground ball arm who should be able to expertly navigate a Braves order which has been swinging at just about everything, and in keeping the ball out of the air he should be able to mitigate the risk that's brought on by Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna towards the top of this order.
On the flip side, the Yankees' top three didn't look great on Friday and have been quietly slumping, and while Charlie Morton may not still be the dominant arm he once was, he has traditionally pitched well at Yankee Stadium and still offers a good deal in the strikeout department -- an area the Yankees struggled in with 12 punchouts -- five of which came from Judge and Juan Soto.
- I think this game will produce an Under, and we should see a slow start.
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NRFI Predictions: Braves vs Yankees NRFI (-110 at DraftKings)
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