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MLB Best Bets for Today June 26: Subway Series Prediction for Yankees vs Mets on Wednesday

Publish Date: 06/26/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

After a tough on on Tuesday night, the New York Yankees will be out for revenge on Wednesday as they send Luis Gil to the mound to level the score in the Subway Series versus the New York Mets.

(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Gil will be looking for a rebound of his own after turning in his worst outing of the year last week against the Orioles, but with a strong profile he should have a decent chance of turning things around against the Mets.

  • We'll provide a look into Yankees vs Mets on Wednesday as well as take a trip to St. Louis for the best bet on Braves vs Cardinals before hunting for the best NRFI line of the day.

Let's get right into it and give out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, June 26.

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MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS NEW YORK METS

A simple recipe of fly balls and strikeouts has worked wonders for Luis Gil this season. Even though his expected numbers aren't quite where they were back in April, he's still flying under the league averages and producing excellent strikeout marks along the way.

  • He'll meet a Mets team which has been slugging exceptionally in the past two weeks but has watched their strikeout and walk rates trend the opposite directions over the past seven days.

For Gil, who's pitched to a plethora of punchouts and has struggled with walks, even though he's improved there of late, this should create a very friendly matchup.

  • Consider the fact that Citi Field is one of the 10 toughest parks to hit home runs, too, by Park Factor and I don't see too many causes for concern here.

Yes, the ball was flying a bit more than normal on Tuesday, but temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with more humidity to boot.

Gil should do his part here, and that should open things up for the Yankees.

  • They'll face Sean Manaea, who's found some success over the last two weeks -- particularly in the strikeout category -- but continues to struggle with handing out free passes to hitters.
  • The Yankees may be slumping a bit in the past week, but they're still walking at a ridiculous 13.4% clip while maintaining very low punchout totals.

Manaea's xBA and xSLG -- both well worse than the league norm -- should make for a tricky one here against a Yankees offense that may be missing Giancarlo Stanton but is still very capable of taking walks and doing damage when the ball comes back into play.

The Mets' bullpen is also in rough shape after exhausting plenty of high-leverage arms on Tuesday and losing Edwin Diaz to a suspension.

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Best Bet: Yankees ML (-125 at Caesars)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR ATLANTA BRAVES VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

I think we've talked about the Braves' offensive profile quite a bit over the past couple of weeks, but the thing you want to know here is that they're one of the happiest fly ball teams in the league.

That generally does not work out in St. Louis, which sits one spot worse than Citi Field when it comes to Park Factor, and it also doesn't tend to work when you've got a pitcher who has figured out how to effectively pitch to contact on the ground.

  • Don't get me wrong, I'm not the biggest Matthew Liberatore fan around, but I give him a lot of credit for bringing his ground-ball rate up to nearly 48% this season and featuring his slider a ton to wonderful numbers.

Batters are just .111 off his primary delivery, thanks to a heavy whiff rate and a bunch of weakly-hit ground balls.

  • The Braves sit 22nd in baseball against ground-ball pitchers, hitting .232 with a poor .365 slugging percentage, and would rather face just about anybody here than Liberatore.

The lefty's also found some sporadic results in the strikeout department on account of his nasty slider, and the Braves have had plenty of issues making contact in the past week with one of the worst punchout rates in the game.

  • That should set St. Louis up quite nicely here, considering Bryce Elder has owned a 6.07 xERA and .304 xBA through 23 2/3 innings this season after out-performing some very poor expected numbers a season ago.
  • He pitches to a lot of ground balls like Liberatore, but St. Louis has been marginally better against these arms all year and has found some life at the plate with a 134 wRC+ over the past week to rank eighth in MLB.

St. Louis also knows how to score at Busch Stadium better than most teams, hitting .250 at home versus .233 on the road with a 23-point increase in slugging percentage. With Willson Contreras back in the lineup to create a stronger look, I see no reason why the Cardinals should be the underdog here.

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Best Bet: Cardinals ML (+102 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

BEST NRFI BETS TODAY

It's a bit of an ugly card to find solid spots to back pitchers, but I think in a strange twist one of the highest totals on the slate should provide us the best value for a NRFI today.

Yariel Rodriguez may have had a poor return from injury last time out, but he featured eye-popping strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and has proven capable of carrying those over to the bigs with two of his five outings producing six or more strikeouts.

This is of particular note against a Red Sox team which has struggled to limit strikeouts all season long and hasn't taken many walks -- something that has burned Rodriguez thus far.

  • Some of the guiltiest culprits sit atop the lineup in Tyler O'Neill and Wilyer Abreu, and with that I think there's a good chance he can make it out of this first inning alive.
  • On the other side, the Blue Jays have owned cataclysmic numbers on contact and will face an expert contact arm in Kutter Crawford, who's only struggled against teams which can make him pay for his strike-throwing ways with loud contact.

That's not something Toronto has done at all this year, and with that I think we get a slow start to this one offensively.

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NRFI Predictions: Blue Jays vs Red Sox NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)

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