
After a tough on on Tuesday night, the New York Yankees will be out for revenge on Wednesday as they send Luis Gil to the mound to level the score in the Subway Series versus the New York Mets.
(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Gil will be looking for a rebound of his own after turning in his worst outing of the year last week against the Orioles, but with a strong profile he should have a decent chance of turning things around against the Mets.
Let's get right into it and give out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, June 26.
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A simple recipe of fly balls and strikeouts has worked wonders for Luis Gil this season. Even though his expected numbers aren't quite where they were back in April, he's still flying under the league averages and producing excellent strikeout marks along the way.
For Gil, who's pitched to a plethora of punchouts and has struggled with walks, even though he's improved there of late, this should create a very friendly matchup.
Yes, the ball was flying a bit more than normal on Tuesday, but temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with more humidity to boot.
Gil should do his part here, and that should open things up for the Yankees.
Manaea's xBA and xSLG -- both well worse than the league norm -- should make for a tricky one here against a Yankees offense that may be missing Giancarlo Stanton but is still very capable of taking walks and doing damage when the ball comes back into play.
The Mets' bullpen is also in rough shape after exhausting plenty of high-leverage arms on Tuesday and losing Edwin Diaz to a suspension.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-125 at Caesars)
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I think we've talked about the Braves' offensive profile quite a bit over the past couple of weeks, but the thing you want to know here is that they're one of the happiest fly ball teams in the league.
That generally does not work out in St. Louis, which sits one spot worse than Citi Field when it comes to Park Factor, and it also doesn't tend to work when you've got a pitcher who has figured out how to effectively pitch to contact on the ground.
Batters are just .111 off his primary delivery, thanks to a heavy whiff rate and a bunch of weakly-hit ground balls.
The lefty's also found some sporadic results in the strikeout department on account of his nasty slider, and the Braves have had plenty of issues making contact in the past week with one of the worst punchout rates in the game.
St. Louis also knows how to score at Busch Stadium better than most teams, hitting .250 at home versus .233 on the road with a 23-point increase in slugging percentage. With Willson Contreras back in the lineup to create a stronger look, I see no reason why the Cardinals should be the underdog here.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML (+102 at FanDuel)
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It's a bit of an ugly card to find solid spots to back pitchers, but I think in a strange twist one of the highest totals on the slate should provide us the best value for a NRFI today.
Yariel Rodriguez may have had a poor return from injury last time out, but he featured eye-popping strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and has proven capable of carrying those over to the bigs with two of his five outings producing six or more strikeouts.
This is of particular note against a Red Sox team which has struggled to limit strikeouts all season long and hasn't taken many walks -- something that has burned Rodriguez thus far.
That's not something Toronto has done at all this year, and with that I think we get a slow start to this one offensively.
NRFI Predictions: Blue Jays vs Red Sox NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)
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