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MLB Best Bets for June 24: Moneyline, Over/Under and NRFI Picks Today

Publish Date: 06/24/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Welcome to another week in Major League Baseball, where some of the most talented rosters in the league are beginning to deliver on their potential and some early success stories are quickly fading.

(Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

We'll see two of those converge in Texas, where the suddenly-hot Rangers will take on the regressing Freddy Peralta, which should make for a high-scoring affair. I'll take a look at the total there, and give some love to the Baltimore Orioles before going hunting for a NRFI prediction today.

Let's get right into it slate and give out our MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 24.

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MLB BEST BET FOR CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Calling the hitter-friendly Camden Yards home, it's no surprise that the Baltimore Orioles have tailored their offense towards fly balls. They have hit the fourth-highest percentage of their batted balls into the air, and carry a league-high 15.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio into action on Monday.

Cleveland, meanwhile, may be enjoying some friendlier home run conditions at home but still remain a team which does its best work on grounders and line drives, sitting around the middle of the league in fly balls.

This is going to be of the utmost importance in the opening game of this series, which will be pitched by two young starters who have fared decently well on contact this year but have been very averse to grounders.

  • Though Cade Povich's numbers in that regard are a bit more extreme than Tanner Bibee's, the Orioles do rank sixth in OPS to fly-ball arms while the Guardians sit back in 15th in the split.

So, while both offenses are red-hot at the moment, I think the choice here is clear -- you want to back the team which is going to be putting the ball in the air more and having much more success in the power department.

  • The Guardians are also still a free-swinging bunch and have walked in just 7.1% of plate appearances over the last two weeks, which should help Povich -- whose main Achilles heel thus far has been free passes.
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Best Bet: Orioles ML (-120 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR TEXAS RANGERS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS

I tried to warn folks a month ago that Freddy Peralta was due for regression after facing a plethora of poor lineups to begin the year, and now we're really seeing the right-hander's true colors.

The 28-year-old has always flashed excellent strikeout stuff, but a combination of walks, struggles a third time through the order and home runs have held him back from delivering on his potential.

Well, Peralta has now allowed 11 homers this year to rank among the worst in baseball, surrendering seven in his past seven starts. The alarm bells should be ringing on Monday as he steps into the third-best park in baseball for home runs against a Rangers offense which is beginning to find life at the plate.

  • Wyatt Langford is beginning to smash the ball, Josh Smith is healthy again and back to producing, and plenty more have found a way to reach base at a high clip.
  • Texas' ability to display discipline at the plate with a positive 8.9% walk rate over the last week, coupled with continued excellence in limiting punchouts, should help it get to Peralta early and often here.
  • The tough news is that this Milwaukee Brewers offense, even in a bit of a slump, still grades out as a good one with a 105 wRC+ in the last week of play.

The issues seem to stem from too many strikeouts, but they're still walking at an insane clip to lead baseball over the last two weeks which should spell trouble for Michael Lorenzen and his historically-poor walk numbers.

We should be treated to plenty of runs in this one at a park conducive to scoring, and I think the total is about a half-run off where I'd put it as a result of Peralta's name value.

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Best Bet: Over 8 Runs (-114 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

BEST NRFI BETS TODAY

There aren't a ton of obvious spots to play Unders on this slate given some poor pitching matchups and plenty of games which don't even have starters named yet. I do see a bit of a window in here in Kansas City, where Cole Ragans will get the ball.

  • The left-hander has been excellent this season with a 3.13 ERA and strong 3.27 Expected ERA, posting solid strikeout numbers and really only struggling with a mediocre 8% walk rate.

Well, the Marlins not only grade out as the worst offense by wRC+ against left-handers and the second-worst overall in the last two weeks, but they continue to be the worst team in baseball when it comes to taking walks. I have no doubt about Ragans making it through a clean first inning, which leaves this one up to Miami starter Roddery Munoz.

Is the right-hander good? Well, not particularly.

  • He's sporting some horrific starts on contact, but the sample is only 29 2/3 innings.
  • The Royals aren't really hitting the ball very well of late, either, with a 41 wRC+ in the past seven days.
  • They're tasking Adam Frazier to lead off, and while he's been one of the team's stronger hitters he's hitting just .211 this year and is .200 over the past week.

Bobby Witt, Jr. is also searching for answers with three hits in his last 24 at-bats and Vinnie Pasquantino has three hits in 22 ABs.

While this may seem like a crooked matchup on paper, the Royals have done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt that they'll get on the board early, and their top hitters have been mired in hugs slumps.

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NRFI Predictions: Marlins vs Royals NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)

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