Best MLB Bets Today August 18: Three Picks for Sunday

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

What a weekend it's already been in major league baseball, and what a day of baseball we've got in store for us on Sunday.

(Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

There are plenty of big-name pitchers ready to take the ball for their respective teams in the heat of some dramatic playoff races, and I've spotted one comically large underdog that could find itself working on a monumental upset of one of these clubs in the hunt.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Sunday, August 18.

MLB BEST BET FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS HOUSTON ASTROS

Well, here it is. We always say "anything can happen" in the game of baseball, so why not this? Why can't a White Sox team beginning to hit the ball com within two runs of pulling it off in Houston if it doesn't win altogether?

1. It might surprise you, but the White Sox have caught a bit of fire since dismissing their manager and rank fourth in the league over the last week of play with a 135 wRC+.
2. While their numbers in any split can't be called even remotely close to "good" the White Sox are one of the rare teams who have hit lefties better than righties with around a five-point increase in average to lift their wRC+ up a point higher than the reverse split.

Framber Valdez continues to yield a whole host of hard-hit balls along with middling strikeout and walk numbers, and I have some faith in Chicago here given it's walked significantly more against southpaws on the year.

On the flip side, this Houston team continues to watch its walk rate shrivel to just 6.6% over the last week and has been firmly worse against lefties this year.

• Ky Bush may be flawed and inexperienced, but without patience it'll be tough for the Astros to rip him apart here.

Best Bet: White Sox +2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

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Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

I'm a big fan of both pitchers working in this game, and I'm a bit perplexed why they're not getting more love from oddsmakers.

1. Sonny Gray is working on a career year in the strikeout department with a 30.8% punchout rate, something that's got significance here as the Dodgers continue striking out at a dangerous clip as the months go on.
2. Clayton Kershaw has stabled after a stop-and-go beginning to his season a month back, and he'll draw the 27th-best offense in the league against lefties by wRC+.

Gray owns an excellent 2.66 ERA in St. Louis this year, which makes a ton of sense given he's yielded a ton of well-struck fly balls which generally comes along with being a strikeout pitcher.

Busch Stadium is one of the more unfriendlier parks to fly balls, and with that I think the right-hander should keep on rolling and use the park to his advantage to cool a powerful Dodgers lineup.

• In the reverse, the Cardinals own just a .129 ISO to lefties which should give you nothing to worry about with Kershaw.
• They've also appeared to hit rock bottom with just a 69 wRC+ over the last week to rank second-worst, and now some newfound issues with strikeouts are presenting themselves.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-130 at FanDuel)

MLB BEST BETS FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS DETROIT TIGERS

Marcus Stroman had two brutal outings on either side of August 1 this season, allowing five runs (three earned) to the Red Sox and seven runs to the Blue Jays, both of which tallied 17 hits in just six innings.

• Well, that sort of worked out as we thought it might. Both teams have been the best versions of themselves versus ground-ballers, but that's not the case with the Detroit Tigers here.
• Detroit ranks second-worst in the big leagues with a .592 OPS against ground0ballers, and its .206 average is not only the worst in the league but is almost 60 points shy of the median mark.

Detroit may have a bit of life in it with Kerry Carpenter returning from injury, but Stroman has limited power somewhat well this year with an above-average barrel rate and will get a park upgrade in Detroit to boot.

I'm sold on the Yankees' right-hander, and that should be all we need to take the Under. Tarik Skubal has not only been one of the most dominant arms in the game this season but the Yankees have been terrible against left-handed pitching relative to their right-handed numbers.

• New York owns just a 106 wRC+ versus lefties this year to rank 13th in baseball, yet is first against righties with a 124 wRC+ with around a 50-point gap in ISO.

Pick on the Yankees' big weakness here and back both arms to keep things relatively quiet on Sunday night.

Best Bet: Under 8 (-115 at Caesars)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section.

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