Best MLB Bets Today August 23: Three Picks for Friday

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We're getting set to begin a tantalizing weekend of baseball around the major leagues, and with that we'll dive right into a loaded slate on Friday and hand out some best bets.

(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

I'll stick with two series that treated us well on Thursday when I dive into two red-hot offenses in the Astros and Mets, and we'll also look to exploit a weakness of the Yankees' in what should be a tough game on Friday.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 23.

MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS COLORADO ROCKIES

The Yankees have a big problem, and that is hitting left-handed pitching. It hasn't mattered how poor he's performing, just about every southpaw has been able to look competent against this team over the course of the season.

• The Yankees rank first -- by a wide margin -- in wRC+ to right-handed pitching this year but sit just 13th against lefties.
• The big discrepancy has come in the power department, where the Yankees are sporting a .200 ISO in the stronger side of the split as opposed to just a .157 in the reverse, and they've also seen their strikeout rate rise by a percentage point.

Kyle Freeland hasn't exactly been great this year, but he pieced together a great start against the Angels the last time he pitched away from the brutal Coors Field, spinning seven innings of one run ball. He's displayed an ability to strike batters out as well over the last two months, and in general has not walked many batters so I think there's a decent chance he can make it out of this one alive despite the Yankees' hot hitting.

That leaves it up to Carlos Rodon on the other side of the matchup, and I've generally been a believer this year. The lefty hasn't had the prettiest stats on the surface, but his strikeout rate has been rising over the last two weeks which will be imperative against a Rockies team that is nearly the worst in the league with a 27.4% strikeout rate.

Hold your nose and take the under here.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

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Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

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MLB BEST BET FOR HOUSTON ASTROS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Astros put a beating on the Orioles to begin this series with a big win Thursday, and I'm not sure much will change on Friday with Cade Povich toeing the slab for Baltimore.

• The rookie did turn in his best start of the season in his ninth big-league outing last go around, but that came against a Red Sox team that cannot hit lefties for the life of them.
• Houston sits 12th in wRC+ to southpaws this season, and most importantly can do damage in the power department with a solid .184 ISO in the past two weeks and an improving walk rate.

Povich, like many young pitchers, has had some initial struggles in getting strikeouts at the big-league level which should really make this a difficult matchup. Pitching to contact against a team that does as much damage as Houston is a tall task, and I don't expect it to go overly well for him considering he's failed to perform at even an average level this season.

On the other side, Hunter Brown has looked like a future ace for the Astros in the past two months and has has his xERA down to 3.38 as he walks into a matchup with an Orioles team that has fallen into a slight funk, climbing up in strikeout rate and hitting a measly .244 in the last 14 days.

I think the Astros remain the stronger team here, and they should earn another win on the road.

Best Bet: Astros ML (-115 at BetMGM)

MLB BEST BETS FOR NEW YORK METS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES

I don't want any part of betting against this revamped Padres bullpen on Friday in what should be a razor-close game, but I do want to fade Joe Musgrove in favor of the hotter of the two offenses.

• Both teams have hit the ball pretty well in the last two weeks, but while the Padres have maintained their season-long numbers, the Mets have brought their Isolated Power above .200 in the last seven days specifically.
• This is a big deal, because Musgrove's strikeout rate has fallen once again this year and without third strikes there will be many balls coming back into the field. New York has hit well for average and is taking a ton of walks -- another area of concern for Musgrove who's been unseasonably poor in that area.

I love Paul Blackburn in this spot as well. He's had just one poor outing for the Mets since coming over in a trade earlier this month, and it came against his former team. I'm willing to excuse it here, as he's been brilliant in pitching to ground balls and has commanded the zone quite well.

• The Padres rank in the top three in OPS to fly-ball pitchers this year, but are just outside the top 10 against ground-ballers.

San Diego hasn't done as much damage on contact as New York as a team geared towards putting the ball in play and limiting strikeouts, and the Mets should be afforded plenty of opportunities to go deep here against an arm down on his luck in the strikeout department.

Best Bet: Mets First Five Innings ML (+120 at FanDuel)

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