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MLB Best Bets for Thursday, May 30

Publish Date: 05/30/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The MLB betting slate for Thursday, May 30 begins in the early afternoon and continues late into the night, which is where I've picked out some profitable spots to make some money both by betting on some undervalued pitchers and one juicy player prop in the final game of the day.

(Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

We'll be looking toward Jack Flaherty to put forth another excellent performance, examining the season of Zac Gallen and fading one of the worst catchers at throwing out base-stealers out in Anaheim.

Let's run through our best bets for Thursday.

MLB Betting Resources:

BEST BET FOR ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS NEW YORK METS

On the surface, everything appears to be fine with Zac Gallen. He's posted a 3.12 ERA this year, improving upon his 3.47 ERA from a season ago and more closely mirroring his solid 2022 campaign which vaulted his stock into the elite category.

I'm still seeing some glaring issue, though, that I think can be exploited by the struggling Mets on Thursday. For starters, Gallen's hard-hit rate a year ago was a grave 46.2%, which was a big deal to me considering his ground-ball rate took a dive by over four points.

It's down again this year, albeit marginally, and his hard-hit rate has only gotten worse.

Gallen's still striking out enough hitters and limiting walks to the point where it hasn't been too much of a concern, but his spacious home park in Arizona also mitigates a lot of the risk that he carries with his profile.

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Citi Field may not exactly be a hitter's park, but it does sit right around the league average in Park Factor for homers and is significantly tougher on fly ball pitchers than Chase Field.

The Mets are garnering headlines for all the wrong reasons at the moment, but they've actually been right around the league average in offensive production over the last two weeks and own a very acceptable .153 Isolated Power.

Sure, Pete Alonso may be missing from this one, but the Mets are still seventh in home run-to-fly ball ratio over the last 14 days and should be able to negotiate some loud contact against Gallen and perhaps a home run or two.

On the flip side, Arizona's offense continues to waffle and will not have to try and deal with Christian Scott, who's been stellar in his first go in the big-leagues around one tough outing against the Marlins.

He's missing bats and pitching to a splendid .234 Expected Batting Average, which is enough for me to like the Mets as undervalued home underdogs here.

Best Bet: Mets ML (+106 at FanDuel)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

BEST BET FOR DETROIT TIGERS VS BOSTON RED SOX

Don't look now, but Jack Flaherty looks like the guy who began his big-league career with an incredible amount of promise six years ago. He's still 28, and now with a full bill of health is dazzling with a 2.77 Expected ERA and a downright stunning 33.3% strikeout rate to just a 3.7% walk rate.

He's doing just about everything you want in a pitcher, missing bats and limiting runners both with expert control and a solid number of ground balls which has led to a .226 xBA.

This is a great spot for him against a Red Sox team which is not only striking out at a lofty clip this year but now missing offensive centerpiece Tyler O'Neill due to injury.

Nick Pivetta has been solid in his own right, but he lacks the same kind of dominant profile as Flaherty with an extremely low 32.1% ground ball rate and a heavy reliance on strikeouts.

The Tigers have caught fire in the last two weeks with a 118 wRC+ and have brought their strikeout rate down to a much more reasonable 21.6% over that time.

With fewer punchouts and a heavy injection of power, the Tigers should win this one behind arguably the most surprising arm in the game over the first two months of the season.

Best Bet: Tigers ML (+105 at Caesars)

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Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out the Best MLB Betting Apps in 2024.

BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS

I'll end on a wild player prop which I see a good deal of value in, and that's Anthony Volpe to steal a base against the Angels.

If you've been living under a rock for the last few weeks, Volpe is currently riding a 21-game hitting streak and enters this game with a solid .273 batting average against lefties with a nice .344 on-base percentage in the split.

That's both 19 and 21 points better than the league average versus southpaws, respectively, and if he's able to get on base here I think he's going to steal a base.

Of the 62 catchers that have been tracked this year by Statcast, Angels backstop Logan O'Hoppe ranks 61st in Caught Stealing Above Average at -3.

Volpe, meanwhile, has stolen 11 bases and has done so twice in the last six games -- being caught just three times in all on the season.

I think this is a great time to bet on Volpe to rack up another swiped bag; he stole 24 times in 29 attempts a year ago and only reached base 28.3% of the time compared to 35.7% of the time this season.

More steals are coming, and you'd back that to happen against one of the easiest catchers in the game to steal on.

Best Bet: Anthony Volpe To Record A Stolen Base (+430 at FanDuel)

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