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MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 11

Publish Date: 06/11/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The slate on Tuesday is an exciting one in baseball with some of the top arms in the game doing battle all across the league.

(Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

The Baltimore Orioles have been an incredibly tough offense to stop, particularly at home, and I think a prized arm is going to run into a bit of trouble when he enters Camden Yards on Tuesday. I'll be backing an elite pitcher from the same division later on, and I'm also expecting a ton of runs between two ground-ball pitchers in Kansas City.

Let's get into the best ways to bet on the MLB slate for Tuesday, June 11.

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I learned my lesson about the Orioles a couple of weeks ago when I faded them in favor of a supreme ground-ball pitcher in Cooper Criswell. The thinking at the time was that Baltimore didn't have nearly the same numbers against ground-ballers as it does in other matchups, but what I failed to consider is that the Orioles are simply very good at hitting, particularly at home.

This leads me to Tuesday's matchup against Max Fried, who has been excellent once again in 2024 at inducing contact on the ground. He's given up the fight in the strikeout department for the most part and traded those in for more outs on batted balls, but his .239 Expected Batting Average and .343 Expected Slugging are a ways off the numbers we saw last year out of the talented lefty.

Baltimore is hitting .259 at home compared to .241 on the road and grades out as the second-best offense in baseball versus southpaws with a 130 wRC+ this season -- a number that could actually be even better if not for 23.9% of its plate appearances ending in third strikes.

So, I think Fried is hardly in a good spot here, and on the flip side Albert Suarez has not only been an effective starting pitcher with a 2.15 ERA out of the rotation this season but will meet a Braves team which is hitting just .205 over the last two weeks now that they've lost Ronald Acuna, Jr. and have been waiting around for Austin Riley and Sean Murphy to start hitting.

Suarez owns a spicy .225 xBA and an even better .354 xSLG, displaying brilliant control along the way. This is an arduous spot for the defending National League East champions and I think the Orioles are undervalued at home.
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Best Bet: Orioles ML (+115 at BetRivers)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.


I don't think Kutter Crawford is as bad as he's been over the last five or so starts, and his expected numbers would back that up. My initial angle here was to back him in some form, whether it be the Under or the Red Sox, but I've seen enough of Boston's games to know that we can't trust one of their arms to reasonably pitch to contact like Crawford's attempted to do this year.

It's not for lack of skill -- in fact, Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey has been something of a wizard this year. It's the defense. The Red Sox have the third-worst infield defense in baseball by Outs Above Average at -16, posting a -7 last month an even in eight games this month they've already produced -2 Outs Above Average.

This bet might seem to be a square one, but I actually see it as a contrarian spot. The Phillies have been slumping of late, starved for hits, and Crawford does own decent expected numbers in all but one of his last four outings to encourage his believers a bit.

With that said, they've put the ball on the ground at the third-highest clip in the league over the last 14 days and should find some more hits and baserunners given the awful nature of this defense and that should be enough here with Zack Wheeler on the hill.

Boston's been the better of the two offenses in the last two weeks but it has still struggled to make contact, which should make for a brutal game against Wheeler, one of the top strikeout arms in the NL, who also carries with him an elite .198 xBA.

Crawford, meanwhile, continues to fail at missing bats with a declining whiff rate over his past five starts, sitting at 23% or lower in the last three, meaning there should be plenty of contact and plenty of opportunities for this infield to throw away the game.

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Best Bet: Phillies First Five Innings -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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I feel like I had to write about this game, for it'll be a ground ball-fest. On one side, we have Marcus Stroman who has pitched to a great 49.5% ground ball rate, and on the other we have Brady Singer, who checks in at an even-better 52.2%.

Neither guy has done much in the strikeout department, and while we might be looking forward to some home runs here in such a hitter-friendly park I'm expecting both teams to stack hits.

The Yankees rank first in the game with a .305 average against ground-ballers, and the Royals happen to be right behind them in second at .304. Both teams have hit well of late, too, ranking 11th or better in wRC+ over the last 14 days, and while the Yankees have been a bit cooler at the plate when you narrow it down to the last week that's largely due to the absence of Juan Soto in their lineup.

With Soto back, this offense should once again be treated as the behemoth we've been betting on all year, and the matchup here simply could not be better. Mix in the fact that both teams are top-five in slugging in the ground-ball split as well, and I think we'll see some fireworks here in Kansas City.

The Over has cashed in 14 of the Royals' last 20 games, and that's a trend I think should continue on Tuesday.

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Best Bet: Over 9 (-125 at Caesars)

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