MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 4

Tuesday is Christmas Day for the many fans of exciting Twins infielder Royce Lewis, who will be making his long-awaited return from a quad injury which he suffered on Opening Day.

(Photo by Kyle Rivas/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

While I may be louder than most about Lewis, he's one of the most exciting players in the game and with a flair for the dramatic I think he'll have a big knock or two in store for us in his second game of the season. The odds on him are too good to pass up, but that's not all -- I like a home underdog in a solid pitching matchup and a red-hot team at a boisterous number.

Let's get into the best ways to bet on MLB on Tuesday, June 4.

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BEST BET FOR NEW YORK METS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Trevor Williams will take the ball for the Washington Nationals on Tuesday amidst what's been an overwhelmingly positive season. The grizzled veteran, at 32, has turned in the best season of his career thanks to the efforts of Nationals pitching coach Jim Hickey and new pitching strategist Sean Doolittle.

• Williams owns a neat-and-tidy 2.22 ERA backed by a splendid 3.17 xERA, a product of bringing his ground ball rate back up to 45.3% after a couple of poor seasons in the contact department.
• While he's allowed a good deal of hard-hit balls, Williams hasn't surrendered barrels and expected extra-base hits and homers at nearly the same clip with a solid .228 Expected Batting Average and .361 Expected Slugging Percentage.

With some more strikeouts and fewer walks, he's profiled as a positively trustworthy pitcher and should do well to quiet down a Mets offense that has been hot over the last two weeks, but one which has been driven by excellent returns in the power department.

Williams' ability to suppress power and his newfound strikeout touch will work well against a Mets team that is striking out nearly 24% of the time, and the same can't be said for David Peterson.

The tall Mets lefty has been one of my least favorite arms in baseball through the years thanks to his propensity for allowing hits. He was back in full force in his return from injury, allowing a .308 xBA in his first start back with an incredibly poor showing in the strikeout department.

• The Nationals have struggled against lefties, sure, but they've been without their lefty-masher Lane Thomas for most of the season and is hitting a solid .246 in the last two weeks.

While Washington may be starved for power, its ability to string together hits will be huge against a pitcher who allows so many, and with that this should be a game the Nationals are favored in.

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Best Bet: Nationals ML (+106 at FanDuel)

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BEST BET FOR MINNESOTA TWINS VS. NEW YORK YANKEES

Royce Lewis has a flair for the dramatic. In two starts back from injury last year, he went 3-for-8 with a three-run homer in his season debut and will now step to a high-strikeout arm in Luis Gil on Tuesday night.

While I expect Gil to spin something of a gem against a Twins team which has had issues striking out lately, Lewis should find himself an extra base hit if he doesn't record two knocks on the night.

He's hitting .311 against power pitchers in his career with a whopping .534 slugging percentage, and is at .319 and .593, respectively, against fly ball pitchers.

Gil has not allowed a large amount of contact, but when he has it's come back in the air. That should benefit Lewis, as should the fact that he gets to hit in one of the friendliest home run parks in the game.

• He's never hit in this park, but I think his first series could be special given he seems to rise to the occasion when the focus is on him and loves playing on the biggest stages.

This is an excellent price and one which won't be there in a week once Lewis has some games under his belt. I'll happily buy low.

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Best Bet: Royce Lewis 2+ Total Bases (+170 at FanDuel)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out the Best MLB Betting Apps in 2024.

BEST BET FOR ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS

This is an interesting case, because the Cardinals have been hot at the plate with a 104 wRC+ over the last two weeks and even with some losses in recent games will be up against an Astros team which is 16-17 at home and the losers of five of the last eight games.

So, why the crooked line? Andre Pallante would be the answer. The flamethrowing righty has been deployed as a reliever for most of his young career but has been stretched back out by St. Louis as the seek help in the rotation. Oddsmakers are skeptical of how this will go, but I think this is the better way to use Pallante.

The 25-year-old owned a 3.98 ERA in 10 starts the last time we saw him stretched out in 2022, a number that would have looked a lot better if not for a disaster against in Atlanta against the best offense in baseball where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 frames.

Around that, he wasn't dominant but he was incredibly effective, and against a cold Astros offense ranked 18th in wRC+ over the last 14 days I think he will give the stronger of the two offenses a chance to win.

Pallante was pretty brilliant down in Triple-A after the Cardinals decided to turn him into a starter, pitching to a 2.03 ERA in 13 1/3 innings across three outings with seven punchouts and a wealth of ground balls, and he spun six scoreless innings against the Reds in his first start of the year after being promoted. I'm willing to believe in him at this number.

Spencer Arrighetti, on the other hand, might not have the same kind of start for the Astros. He's pitched to a 5.98 ERA through nine starts, and while some so-called analytical minds have said he should have better numbers on account of his 4.29 xERA I'm not seeing it.

He's pitched to a ton of fly balls, something that doesn't work well in Houston and shouldn't bode well for him against a Cardinals team hitting their best against fly-ballers with a .238/.311/.371 slash line.

I believe in this Cardinals lineup a lot more than the Astros at the moment, and I think there are a ton of reasons to believe in Pallante as a starter.

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Best Bet: Cardinals ML (+135 at Caesars)