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MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, June 5

Publish Date: 06/05/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

We've got a fun slate of games on tap for Wednesday night in Major League Baseball with some of the most exciting teams in baseball taking the field later in the day.

(Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

I'm going to go back to the well in this Yankees vs Twins series for another winning bet, as well as back the right arm of Paul Skenes -- something that's been incredibly fun and fruitful this year. Then, I'll be fading one of the most touted arms in the game with a team that's beginning to hit a bit better right now.

Let's break down the best ways to bet on MLB for Wednesday, June 5.

MLB Betting Resources:

BEST BET FOR LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

This is a very interesting matchup as I see two good ways to bet this one. While I like Paul Skenes' strikeout total at 6.5 (-130) given his extraordinary work in that area, he did run into a bit of trouble against a patient Giants team a couple of weeks ago which ultimately took him well under his total.

I'm going to opt for the Pirates to win this one behind the arm of Skenes, instead. The Dodgers have been slightly more strikeout happy at around two points higher than their season average, which should help out the righty here, though at 20.7% it's still a roll of the dice to bet on punchouts.

He will be pitching to a Dodgers lineup which has struggled over the last two weeks to the tune of a 107 wRC+ and worst of all has walked at just a 7.5% clip.

The Pirates have sneakily picked things up a bit on offense and now with the return of Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski who refined their swings in Triple-A, I think it's a good spot to believe in their offense to do enough to get Skenes a win.

Not only is Pittsburgh a surprising 15th in wRC+ against lefties, something that's notable given it's ranked among the worst offenses in the game overall, but for a team which has struggled mightily with striking out it should welcome a matchup with James Paxton, who sits among the worst starters in the league when it comes to strikeouts.

  • Consider his poor .427 Expected Slugging Percentage, too, and he should make a team which has made little contact, and weak contact when it is hitting the ball, look a ton better.

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Best Bet: Pirates ML (-114 at BetRivers)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

BEST BET FOR MINNESOTA TWINS VS NEW YORK YANKEES

I went with a Royce Lewis player prop last night in what was a successful venture into this series, and now I'll go back into this matchup by backing the left arm of Carlos Rodon to lead us to the promised land.

The Yankees will meet another fly ball pitcher in Chris Paddack here, and as we discussed on Tuesday that's a world of trouble for the Twins. New York sits atop the league in home run-to-fly ball ratio and second in Isolated Power and will have the benefit of playing this game in the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.

  • Paddack has produced an incredibly poor 90.1 average exit velocity, 42.2% hard-hit rate and absurd .471 xSLG.

That is not what you want to see heading into a matchup with the powerful Yankees, so even if he's keeping walks to a minimum I still think the bases will be populated quite a bit and the odds on multiple big blows from these New York bats are quite high.

On the flip side, the Twins will meet a pitcher in Rodon who's been much-improved in the control department from his short 2023 season which will make life difficult given they love to get on base via the free pass and his .243 xBA lends some credence to the fact that he should be able to get some outs on contact here, even if balls are coming back in the air.

  • He hasn't had nearly the same expected slugging as his counterpart, and will be dealing to the weaker of the two offenses.

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Best Bet: Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out the Best MLB Betting Apps in 2024.

BEST BET FOR SAN DIEGO PADRES VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS

We're back to fading the San Diego Padres on Wednesday with the Los Angeles Angels. Dylan Cease isn't nearly as good as many say he is, allowing a ton of hard-hit balls and barrels around his elite strikeout numbers.

It's true that the Angels have struggled with strikeouts for years now, but they've managed to make some slight improvements this year and have been better as the 2024 campaign has worn on with a punchout rate approaching 22% now over the last two weeks.

We also know that this team can really pack a real punch with their power when the ball's coming back into play, ranking 13th in ISO for the season.

I just think, while Cease may pitch well when it's all said and done, the likelihood he yields a home run or at least a few extra-base hits is quite high given the Angels' profile. If they can get just a few runs on the board, something that's easier to see with improvements in the strikeout department, they can really win this game.

The Padres have put up their worst OPS against ground-ballers this year at .699 and I do think Jose Soriano has some talent.

  • He's been one of the best in the game at rolling balls up on the ground this year and has produced a spicy .232 xBA which is somewhat surprising given he's an unassuming starter with little pomp and circumstance surrounding him.

San Diego's beginning to trend back down after a hot week and a half and has lacked any power to speak of with a .112 ISO, leading me to believe Soriano should be able to pitch to contact quite brilliantly here and put LA in a winning position.

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Best Bet: Angels ML (+140 at Caesars)

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