MLB Player Prop Bets Today September 11, 2025: Three Picks for Thursday

The race is on to see which team will clinch a playoff spot. The Brewers, losers of four straight, are stuck with a magic number of two, the lowest in the NL. The Tigers have the lowest magic number in the AL: eight as of their win over the Yankees on Wednesday.

Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles infielder (GETTY)

The playoff picture may seem muddled, but actually we are seeing very steady status in baseball: the same 12 teams have been in the playoff slots since July 11. That's two months of stability on the playoff watch.

For tonight's games, after going 0-for-3 in my TRFI picks on Wednesday, I'm making player prop selections. My choices will be for two full units across three bets.

Odds for this MLB betting article are from the good folks at DraftKings. Remember to wager responsibly: pick a budget and stick to it.

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Jesús Luzardo to Record 8+ K's vs Mets: +183

This will be the final meeting between the Mets and Phillies in the regular season. The Mets have already clinched the season series, but the Phils have the leg up on the NL East division race.

Tonight, I don't care who wins this matchup: I want lots of strikeouts from the Philly starter. That's my prop choice tonight: Strikeout Props on Jesús Luzardo.

The Philadelphia lefty is averaging 7.8 K's per start since August 14. He has seven starts of at least 8 K's in 2025, with five of 10+, the fifth most by an MLB pitcher this season. Since the All-Star break, his 12-K performance on August 20 is the second most in baseball.

WAGER: I'm betting $50 on Jesús Luzardo to log at least eight strikeouts in this rivalry game. If the Phillies' southpaw does that, my wager wins $91.50.

Jackson Holliday to Record 2+ Total Bases: +126

What is it about the flipping of the calendar? It seems that when we went from August to September, Jackson Holliday felt a light under his uniform pants. The Baltimore infielder is batting .333 with two home runs this month.

Holliday's 2025 season has been a glimpse of the future, a promising trailer for a blockbuster still in production. After a rough opening act, the phenom has settled in, showing the baseball world why he was so hyped. His batting average is climbing, and he's starting to find his power stroke, a welcome sight for an Orioles team that has otherwise had a season to forget. Yes, 2025 has been more "Oh No!" than "O's WIN."

Orioles are going to be alright

Let's be honest, the 2025 Orioles have been a bit of a train wreck, a far cry from their recent successes. But while the national pundits are busy writing the O's obituary for the next five years, a closer look suggests a different story. The foundation of a contender is already here.

With a young, dynamic offensive core featuring Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman, the lineup is the least of their worries. I would not be surprised if one of those three young players wins an MVP award the next few seasons.

Then there's young catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked an eight-year, $67 million contract earlier this year

He's less than 20 games into his MLB career, but Swingin' Sammy is going to be a force at the dish against big league pitching. The Orioles' lineup will be scary good for the next several years.

Baltimore's pitching staff has been a disaster, but that's a problem that can be fixed with a few savvy offseason moves. The Orioles don't need a complete overhaul; they need a couple of reliable arms to round out the rotation and a bullpen that can hold a lead.

While the 2025 season may have been a bitter pill to swallow, the future in Birdland is brighter than you'd think. A healthy dose of Holliday and a few new pitchers could have the Orioles right back in the thick of it in 2026.

Don't be surprised to see this team make a serious run sooner rather than later

Tonight we need a legged-out double, a pair of singles, or any long extra-base hit, and we win our prop bet on Matt Holliday's kid.

WAGER: Wager $50 on Jackson Holliday to collect at least two total bases. Odds are +126, and if the Orioles' second baseman comes through with 2+ TB, you win $63 in addition to your $50 wager.

Jose Altuve to Record 2+ Hits vs Toronto: +238

You can't get much hotter than Yordan Alvarez: the Houston slugger has six multi-hit games in eight games this month. He's 18-for-33 (.545) with with two homers, six RBI, and a Babe Ruth-like slugging percentage of .806.

But that's not my choice for a Player Prop bet for tonight's HOU vs TOR game. Nope, I'm going with Jose Altuve: who has a positive history against Blue Jay's starting pitcher Kevin Gausman.

Jose Altuve owns Kevin Gausman

Altuve is .357 in 15 plate appearances with one home run off Gausman.

It's easy to forget that Gausman is a 13-year veteran whose been in the big leagues for 13 seasons. If he finds a way to gain a win on Thursday, the right-hander will be even: 112 wins and 112 losses. He has worthy big league stuff: but he's a forgettable performer on the mound.

WAGER: Bet $100 that Altuve will get at least two hits tonight in Toronto. Odds are +238, which means a winning bet pays $238 plus the stake.