Sports Reporter | Capper
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The Chicago Bulls are falling fast after a hot start to the season, dropping three in a row heading into a tricky matchup against the menacing Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday.
Chicago will continue to play with a depleted backcourt, hoping to rely upon what's been a competent defense to get it across the finish line. Can we make some profit off of the Bulls' mounting injuries, and perhaps take a bit of a discount on the Timberwolves against a slightly above-average defense?
Let's build a same-game parlay for Timberwolves vs Bulls on Thursday, November 7th and lay out a few props that will work well as standalone straight bets as well.
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The first thing I've noticed here is that the Timberwolves have had a terrible season on the glass to this point. They sit 25th in rebounding rate, 10 spots below the Timberwolves, and to make matters worse their strong interior defense has taken a step backwards, ranking 22nd in field goal percentage at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass.
Vucevic went off against a much stronger version of the Timberwolves a season ago, scoring a total of 43 points across two games even if the rebounds weren't quite there.
He should have a much easier time this go around with how this season has been going. Not only have the Timberwolves been weaker on the glass and in defending the cup, but Vucevic has brought his rebounding average up from 10.5 to 10.8 per game despite receiving a slightly lower dose of playing time.
The big man should have little in his way of getting home here, given the matchup and the increased reliance upon his scoring ability with Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball expected to miss this one.
Josh Giddey's role in this offense already increased slightly when Ball was lost to injury, but now without LaVine as well he's been operating with the ball in his hands even more.
With the state of this Timberwolves defense, which has been excellent against the 3-ball in the early going but lackluster at the rim and against mid-range shots, Giddey should penetrate and find open men for baskets time and time again in this matchup.
The 22-year-old has now played 30.6 minutes per game in his last four, giving me a ton of confidence that he'll continue to rack up helpers here -- especially in a game which should feature a ton of possessions.
Chicago ranks first in Pace, and in a game it's expected to trail we should see even more of it.
Chicago's big issue has been at the rim, where it's ranked dead last in defense and has given up looks at one of the five-highest clips in the league.
While you might think that means the slashing Anthony Edwards, or even Rudy Gobert, picks up the slack, the man I'm keyed in on here is Julius Randle.
The newly-acquired forward has been a Usage machine when he's been on the floor, averaging 13.4 shots per game in 33.1 minutes. He should feast on a weak interior defense, and in a pace-up spot for Minnesota stands a great chance of getting up 15 or more shots with an increase of possessions.
This is a great matchup, and with Minnesota playing on the front end of a back-to-back I could see Randle carrying more of the load on Thursday as some of the more important scorers see their minutes managed.
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