
It's football Sunday, and we have a highly anticipated AFC Championship matchup between the Buffalo Bills (13-4, 5-4 away) and the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 home).
(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
While Josh Allen and the Bills have yet to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason, they now get the chance to declare victory on the road. The third favorite to win Super Bowl LIX at +250, the Bills find themselves as +1.5 point underdogs on the road. Aiming for their third consecutive Super Bowl victory, the Chiefs have +210 odds to win it all.
Head-to-head the Bills are 3-1 in the last four meetings against the Chiefs. Headed to Kansas City for the first time this season, the Bills get a Chiefs squad that went a perfect 8-0 at home in the regular season. With a 31-7 victory over the Broncos in the first round, the Bills offense was firing on all cylinders. Last week, Buffalo took care of business, securing the 27-25 home victory vs the Ravens at home.
Due to mistakes and drops on the Raven's end, the Bills are still alive and now have a chance to advance to the Super Bowl since 1994.
The no.1 Chiefs once again earned a first-round BYE, and polished off the Texans, 23-14 last week. Although their offense hasn't looked as potent, can they handle the Bills once again? No matter the game's outcome, bettors are in for an absolute cinema. Who knows, maybe Taylor Swift and Caitlin Clark will make an appearance together once again!
If you're looking to bet on the big AFC Championship game, you've come to the right place! While I've provided three unique bets for the matchup, I do have other bets included in the Ballislife Bets discord! For less than $1 per day, the official Ballislife discord offers PRO bets from various cappers and EV+ plays.
With kick-off set for 6:30 p.m. ET, the Bills and Chiefs matchup will air on CBS/Paramount +. Looking to stay in the green, let's cash out on these individual picks! All placed within FanDuel Sportsbook, let's break down my three best player prop bets for the Bills vs Chiefs AFC outing!
Are you in search of further AFC Championship and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.
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BEST ODDS FOR BUFFALO BILLS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2024-2025 HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS: BILLS VS CHIEFS
GP: 17 | Carries: 41 | Rushing Yards: 213 | AVG: 5.2 | Rush TD: 1 | Rush Long: 19 | Rec TD: 3 | Receiving Yards: 284
My first player prop bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Bills running back Ty Johnson to record over 10.5 rushing yards for -113 odds against the Chiefs.
Although the starting back duties belong to running back James Cook, Sean McDermott has been utilizing a back committee featuring Cook, Johnson, and Ray Davis. Utilizing in the passing game in the backfield, Johnson is coming off a 31 rushing yard performance vs the Ravens last week.
Although it was Cook who led the way for 67 rushing yards on 17 carries, it was Johnson who was utilized on 5.0 carries. Interesting enough, Johnson played 34 percent of the snaps, compared to Cook's 52. Even so, that's more than enough for 10.5 rushing yards. We are talking about a back who's averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
In the first two rounds vs the Broncos and Ravens, Ty Johnson rushed for a combined 75 yards, which included 31 against the Ravens, and 44 vs the Broncos. Utilized early in the run game vs Denver, it was Johnson who scored his 5th touchdown of the year to expand the lead 21-7. Although 44 yards on 9 carries wasn't the most efficient, we saw a nice 11 yard game from Johnson.
Its clear coach McDermott trusts Johnson as a viable option in the backfield, even when Cook and Allen take care of most of the rushing duties. In a must win game against a conference rival, Johnson had arguably his best game of the post season. Logging 31 yards on 5 carries, Johnson impressed with a 6.2 yards per carry average vs a solid Ravens defensive squad.
It's also evident the Bills might be using unique tactics to score. For example, Davis scored the the first rushing touchdown for the Bills. While Johnson's snap count has dramatically increased since week 14, he should be in the usage mix.
There's no doubt Allen is going to throw the ball and also utilize the backfield behind him. Running 44 percent of the plays, Johnson and the Bills face a Chiefs team who were unforgiving to running backs. Allowing the third least yardage to backs in the NFL (70.4 yards per game), they've left off the gas in the playoffs. In fact, Kansas City currently allows the 7th most rushing yards this postseason (105.5). Although a small sample size, I do expect the Bills to utilize the run game.
The fact Johnson was utilized on fourth down conversions tells me the amount of faith the team has in him. Clearing over 10.5 rushing yards in five straight games, Johnson has averaged 26.8 rushing yards over that span.
Better yet, He's cleared over 10.5 rushing yards in the last three head-to-head matchups vs the Chiefs (19,40, 18). Aside from Jones and Karlaftis, the Chiefs don't have the right sided line. If Johnson can keep up the snaps, Joe Mixon (88), CJ Stroud (42), and Dameon Pierce (10) ran all over the Chiefs for 149 yards. No. 11 in rush EPA, expect Johnson to get his touches.
GP: 16 | Receiving TD: 3 | Targets: 133 | Receiving Yards: 823 | Average: 8.5| Long: 38 | First Down: 46
My second best pick for Sunday, I placed one unit on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to record over 68.5 receiving yards for -113 odds vs the Bills.
Sure, this is an extremely "corporate" pick in the betting world. Travis Kelce, along with Taylor Swift are among the two most popular names when someone mentions the Kansas City Chiefs. However, it's the playoffs, a place where Kelce is extremely familiar with.
There's no doubt the Chiefs have regressed offensively, and that includes the performance of Kelce. Failing to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark, the tight end tallied only three touchdowns on the season. For that reason alone, I am staying away from his touchdown props.
If there's one NFL duo I can't fade, it's Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Earning three Super Bowl victories together, their chemistry on the field is undeniable. With that said, Kelce always performs on the biggest stage and when it matters.
Notching over 68.5 receiving yards just once in the regular season since week 8, we've seen Kelce's productivity vastly increase in the last couple of weeks. Sure, Mahomes has a variety of receives in Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and so forth.
While we saw Kelce tie Worthy for a team-high 8 receptions for 84 yards against the Steelers, the tight end is coming off the most impressive game of the season. Hauling in 117 receiving yards against a stingy Texans defense, Kelce is a main reason for the Chiefs 7th straight AFC Championship experience.
Play-action, up the middle, Kelce showcased his ability to break tackles. Even against the Blitz, Mahomes is always able to find his favorite target. Excellent on converting on third downs, Kelce will surely be one of the top options against the Bills.
Overall, Kelce was bottled up for a limited 8 yards vs the Bills back in November. In a high stakes game, I highly doubt that performance will be repeated. Holding tight ends to 48.1 yards per game, it's been a different story for Buffalo in the playoffs.
Although he suffered a crucial drop in the fourth quarter, tight end Mark Andrews had a productive 61 receiving yards on 5 receptions
Given the Bills rank no. 20 in dropack EPA, Mahomes should have some time (or so I think) in the pocket. All things aside, Kelce and Mahomes are very familiar with this Bills team. Eclipsing over 70+ receiving yards in 4/5 head-to-head matchups, Kelce is averaging an elite 53.6 air yards per game.
Given the Bills have injuries to their secondary, Kelce should have a field day vs the Safeties, especially linebackers. In the last AFC Championship matchup vs the Bills, Kelce hauled in 118 yards on 13 receptions.
Over 7 AFC Championship matchups, Kelce hasn't been one to shy away from the moment. In fact, the tight end has averaged 90.6 receiving yards in all seven of those. Notching 75+ receiving yards in 6 straight AFC Championship appearances, Kelce has hauled in nothing lower than 75 yards vs the Bills.
Don't overthink this prop, Travis Kelce has 289 receiving yards in three playoff games against Josh Allen and the Bills. Plus, the Chiefs defense has regressed a tiny bit this year. Overall, they rank no. 15 in defense EPA.
GP: 17 | CMP: 307 | ATT: 483 | Passing Yards: 3, 731 | Passing TD: 28 | Rushing Yards: 531 | Rushing TD: 12
My last player prop bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Bills quarterback Josh Allen to score a touchdown for -120 odds vs the Chiefs.
It's Josh Allen, who is in the running for the 2024 NFL MVP. With 12 rushing touchdowns and 531 rushing yards on the year, why I would I fade this prop at such great odds? If anyone is going to sacrifice themselves and find the end zone, it's Allen himself.
Allowing opponents to score over 50 percent in the red zone this year, this is a Kansas City team that's allowed under one rushing touchdown per game. However, the Chiefs have given up four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the season. Combine that with Allen who's scored in 12 of the 17 games himself.
With the Chiefs allowing the 8th rushing touchdowns, this game will be a tall task for Allen. With that said, we saw him find the end zone not once, but twice vs the Ravens. There's not a "tush push" when it comes to the Bills. There's no quarterback quite built like Allen.
With 66 rushing yards through the playoffs, Allen has accounted for 72 rushing attempts inside the 20 this year. More efficient the road, the Bills aren't afraid of any opponent. In fact, they are scoring over 69 % in the red zone on the road.
For -120 odds, It's truly hard to fade a player who has four rushing touchdowns in the last three games vs the Chiefs. Finding the end zone in four of the last six games, Josh Allen is a touchdown machine.
The Bills may revert to a back committee, however, it may be Josh who will muscle his way in. Tallying 12 rushing touchdowns in the last 10 games, Josh Allen has scored a touchdown in 7 of the last 10 games alone.
Given the Bills don't have a ton of star power on the offensive end, look for Allen to make plays with his legs. In a lone 30-21 victory over the Bills, Allen rushed for 55 yards which included a touchdown. Last year Allen again found the end zone twice against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
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