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Week 14 is almost here, and there are 11 games on the Sunday slate! If you bet on the NFL and love risky touchdown-scoring bets, you've come to the right place! In this article, I will provide my three best anytime touchdown scorer predictions for week 14. A mix of running backs and receivers, let's first break down the current NFL schedule and betting odds for Sunday, December 8.
Looking to say hot and in the green, I have an NFL betting record of 22-12 this month. Up over 7 units in December, I will continue to focus on bank roll management. With that said, I placed all three of my anytime touchdown bets as separate wagers. If you're looking to tail my NFL bets, all have been placed within FanDuel Sportsbook.
As NFL and fantasy football playoffs loom, we have some exciting matchups ahead! Let's take a look at my three top scorers for Sunday.
Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.
Best Najee Harris Anytime TD Odds: -130 (FanDuel)
GP: 12 | Carries: 207 | Rushing Yards: 824| Receiving Yards: 249 | Targets: 37| Avg Rushing: 4.0 | Rush TD: 4 | Rec TD: 0 | Rush Long: 36 | First Down: 38
For week 14, I've placed one unit on Steelers running back Najee Harris to score a touchdown vs the Browns. While the Steelers aren't exactly the most impressive team on the ground in the red zone, Harris has quite the matchup on Sunday.
We have another AFC North divisional matchup, this time the Steelers hosting the Browns in Pittsburgh. With the Browns stunning the Steelers 24-19, it was running back Jaylen Warren who found the end zone for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. While that was Warren's lone touchdown of the season, here's why I'm betting on Harris to be a prime anytime touchdown scorer for Sunday.
With a 3-9 record, the Browns have been atrocious on the road. Allowing the 10th highest red zone scoring percentage in the NFL (61.1 %), they've allowed 17 rushing touchdowns, which is the fourth most in the NFL. Giving up the 11th most yards on the ground (1,543), it's safe to say I'm confident in this player prop for Sunday. Not to mention, Cleveland gives up the 5th most rushing touchdowns, with 1.4 per game.
Overall, the Browns starting defensive line is fairly healthy. However, they are thin in depth with several injuries. While the Browns mainly play a 4-3 defense, they've been quite forgiving to opposing running backs. All in all, Cleveland ranks no. 20 in rush EPA. Am I allowed to say it's embarrassing they gave up a 1 yard rush to full back Michael Burton? Not to mention Javonte Williams 2 yard touchdown in the first quarter.
Or should we talk about the fact Taysom Hill scored three rushing touchdowns alone in week 12? The last couple of weeks haven truly been a drag for the Cleveland defense. Not only did chargers running back J.K Dobbins rush for two touchdowns, Derrick Henry had no problem as well. Bottom line, the Browns haven't been able to stop any backs at the goal line.
As much as I wanted to go with George Pickens, this is simply matchup based for me. Sure, Jaylen Warren is consuming volume behind Harris. However, it's clear is day Najee is the no. 1 back in the red zone. Leading the way with 39 rushing attempts compared to Warren's 11 inside the 20, it's Harris that out snapped Warren 33-25 last week vs the Bengals. Leading the way with 75 yards rushing on 16 carries, Warren took a back seat with just 9 yards on the ground.
Maybe it's a fluke, however the Steelers previous matchup with the Browns was the only game Warren out snapped Harris. Looking for his second touchdown at home this season, Harris stands behind a Steelers team who's got quite a potent running game.
While quarterbacks in years past have been primarily game managers, Russell Wilson has been much for than that. Putting up the 10th most point per game (24.7), the Steelers are the real deal.
Although the Steelers could be more efficient percentage wise in the red zone (45.2 %), Najee Harris last saw a 10 yard rushing touchdown last week to put the Steelers up by 3 vs the Bengals. Only four touchdowns on the year, all of those came since week 6 vs Vegas. Even though the Steelers call rushing plays 46.8 % of the time, we've seen Harris find the end zone twice in the last four weeks.
It will be interesting if Tomlin decides to split the running back duties, or if Harris will remain the primary back. In a must win game, Harris is close to a 4th consecutive season with 1,000 rushing yards. Ranking no. 7 in the NFL in total touches (236), i'm impressed by the volume of touches( 20 per game). With a more balance inside and outside rush approach (54.5 % inside, 45.5 % outside), Harris saw just one red zone rush vs Cleveland.
Coming of 6 rushes inside the 20 vs the Bengals, look for Harris to keep the momentum heading into Sunday's matchup. With 25 total red zone rushes over since week 10, I like Najee Harris to score a touchdown on Sunday.
Best De'Von Achane Anytime TD Odds: -135 (FanDuel)
GP: 12 | Carries: 139| Rushing Yards: 576 | Receiving Yards: 429 | Targets: 64| Avg Rushing: 4.1 | Rush TD: 3 | Rec TD: 6 | Rush Long: 47 | First Down: 25
My second bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Dolphins running back De'Von Achane to score a touchdown vs the New York Jets. With injuries that have limited Raheem Mostert, It's evident Achane is the work horse for the Dolphins. Taking a leap as an increasing threat in his second year, Achane is now tallying over 1,000 yards rushing and receiving. Although it's been a tumultuous season for Dolphins fans and bettors, let's look to get back on track Sunday.
By far Mike McDaniels leading rusher with 139 carries, Achane has been on a heater. Although much more productive in the backfield with Tua tua Tagovailoa, Achane now has three receiving touchdowns in the last two games. Combine that with 80 yards through the air vs the Patriots and Packers. With a combination of four rushing and receiving touchdowns over the last three weeks, here''s why I additionally love this prop.
The Jets are undeniably one of the most disappointing teams this season. While talent on paper hasn't translated on to the field, the Jets allow the 13th most rushing yards in the NFL (126.3). To make this prop even more enticing, New York allows the fourth most rushing touchdowns per game (1.4), including nearly a 60 % red zone scoring rate. Not even Aaron Rodgers can save this team, they can't stop running backs in the end zone.
To paint a clearer picture how terrible the run defense has been, the Jets have allowed the 5th most rushing touchdowns in the NFL with 17. Even with a new head coach, not much as changed. At 3-9, we saw Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet pile in for an 8 yard rushing touchdown last week. And the week prior? Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson found the end zone not once, but twice.
Allowing a rushing touchdown in 8 straight weeks, we've seen quarterbacks have success rushing, in addition to backs with multiple tuddies. With the Jets ranking no. 27 in rush EPA, Achane has an opportunity to score 6 for the second straight week. While Mostert has certainly had his chances inside the 20, it's been Achane who's had the most attempts. What makes Achane a more viable threat is his ability to catch.
Leading all receivers with 32 rushing yards, all nine of his touchdowns have come inside the 20. With a 91.7 % receiving in the red zone, 6 of those have come receiving in the backfield. Given Tua is aiming to reduce concussion risk, I can't imagine I can possibly consider the quarterback to score a touchdown. While the Dolphins recently discovered Jonnu Smith, that may hinder Achane's touchdown odds. However, the Jets are fairly decent, allowing the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL (9).
Outs snapping Raheem Mostert significantly since week 8, the floor is Achane's. With 15 red zone rushing attempts and 7 targets over the last three weeks, this is a strong touchdown prop on Sunday. Overall, the Jets defensive line needs major improvement outside of Quinnen Williams. With Sauce Gardner out, along with C.J Mosley, the Jets face two major holes in their defense. Losing Jermaine Johnson three months ago was the real loss, let's be honest.
Look for Achane to continue his dominance and exploit the Jets defense. After all, it's been mainly Achane and Tua that have handled business on the ground. With 34 carries since week 11, let's roll with De'Von Achane to score a touchdown Sunday.
Best Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime TD Odds: +220 (FanDuel)
GP: 12 | Receptions: 46 | Targets: 73 | Yards: 765 |Receiving TD: 6 | Average: 16.6 |Rec Long: 85 | First Down: 33
My third prediction for Sunday, I placed one unit on Brian Thomas Jr. to score a touchdown vs the Titans for +220 odds. Losing Trevor Lawrence to a season ending injury isn't always the best news. However, Thomas Jr. is one of the most elite up and coming receivers out LSU. While I don't entirely have full confidence in Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones, he's already established some chemistry with the receiver.
Having missed a few games with injury himself, the former LSU stud is holding down Jacksonville's receiving core. With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis sitting on the IR, Thomas is the clear cut no. 1 ahead of Parker Washington and Josh Reynolds.
One of the biggest steals of the 2024 NFL Draft, Thomas Jr. is the top target and receiver, regardless who's been under center. Leading the Jaguars with 765 receiving yards and 73 targets, he will now face stingy Titans defense. Allowing the least amount of receiving yards per game (171.8), it's important to note they've allowed the 11th most receiving touchdowns (20). For that reason alone, I veered away from receiving yard props.
There's some good and bad in last week's 23-30 loss vs the Texans. On one occasion, Mac Jones missed Thomas Jr that would've resulted in a 70 yard touchdown. However, it was Jones that connected late with the receiver for a touchdown in the back of the end zone. Though Jones will remain under center, Thomas Jr. is such an elite rookie receiver, he's a rookie of the year candidate.
Now fully healthy, we have to analyze how the LSU star has performed over the last few weeks. With two touchdowns in the last five weeks, the receiver is coming off a 76 and 82 receiving yard performance vs the Texans and Lions. Now that's nothing to sniff at, those are respectable defenses. With 17 targets over the last two weeks, it's been Thomas who leads the receiving core with 62.5 receiving % in the red zone. With five touchdowns inside the 20, his target percentage should see a massive increase.
Overall, I do have concerns with Mac Jones, although he showed signs of life with 235 passing yards for two touchdowns last week. With more interceptions than touchdowns, that's definitely a concern. As great as Tennessee has been defensively, they allow opponents to score over 65 percent in the red zone. In that case, Brian Thomas Jr. is more than capable of making the big plays down the field. With the Titans ranking 14 in drop back EPA, that should give Jones some time in the pocket.
A team that allows 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, the Jaguars need to improve their EPA/pass. Dead last in the NFL, there are plenty of ways to exploit the Titans defense. Coming off a 42-19 loss vs the Commanders, we saw a complete first half domination by Washington.
With Terry McLaurin hauling in two touchdowns alone, Tennessee allowed three touchdowns through the air. And now in a divisional matchup, Thomas Jr. will have the tough matchup with Darrell Baker Jr. Just a week prior, Nico Collins and Cade Stover connected for 6 through the air vs the Titans.
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