NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: Who Will Score on Sunday, November 17

NFL week 11 is here, and there are 12 games on the NFL slate. If you're tailing my bets, I will provide my three best anytime touchdown scorers for today. But first, let's look at the current NFL slate and odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Within the Sunday slate, there are several, high profile matchups ahead!

(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

NFL Week 11 Slate And FanDuel Odds

Cashing in on two of three anytime touchdown scorers in week 11, I'm looking to stay hot! Keeping my bank roll management in mind, I've placed all of my three picks separately with one unit on each. With an NFL betting record of 20-12, I am up nearly 7 units through the month of November.  Let's take a peak and analyze my three best anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, November 17.

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NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 11: Derrick Henry

Best Derrick Henry Anytime TD Odds: -175 (FanDuel)

2024-2024 NFL Stats

GP: 10  | Carries: 184 | Rushing Yards: 1,120 | Receiving Yards: 96 | Targets: 12 | Avg Rushing: 6.1 | Rush TD: 12 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush Long: 87 | First Down: 49

My first prediction for NFL Sunday, I placed one unit on Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry to find the end zone vs the Steelers today. Leading all NFL running backs with 12 touchdowns on the season, I'm not fading this today. Although juiced at -175 odds, I do believe the odds should be higher, and there's still value there. If you had questions how well Henry would fit into John Harbaugh's system alongside Lamar Jackson, you can put them to rest.

The true workhorse behind Jackson, Henry hasn't disappointed in his first year with the Ravens. Averaging a career-high 6.1 YPC, Henry is on pace for another incredible season. Although it may not top 2,000+ rushing yard season in 2019, scoring 12 touchdowns in 10 games is very efficient.

If you're tailing my Sunday bets, here's why I love this anytime touchdown scorer prediction. Sure Baltimore surprisingly doesn't lead the NFL in rushing touchdown percentage (35 %), however, they lead the league with 31.8 point per game. Behind an extremely potent offensive, this is a Baltimore team that's scored 33.3 points over the last three games. With such a high scoring efficiency rate, Henry has found the end zone in all 10 weeks. That includes 2+ touchdowns vs the Cowboys, Bills, Commanders, and Broncos. For what it's worth, Buffalo and Denver rank in the top 7 vs running backs respectfully. No matter the opponent, can anyone stop Henry in the end zone? At 6'2, 247 pounds, Henry remains one of the strongest backs in the league.

With 12 Rushing Touchdowns, Derrick Henry Is Unstoppable In The End Zone

Given the Ravens run the ball 45.7 % of plays,  Henry's snap counts have only increased since week 1. Recording 61 and 62 % of the offensive snap counts in weeks 9 and 10, I don't anticipate a regression today. With Justice Hill getting 21 percent of the touches, I don't see him as a true threat to Henry. Besides, the Ravens rank fifth in rushing touchdowns with 1.4 per game, and have stayed fairly consistent over the last three matchups.

Coming off his least productive week rushing rush (68) yards since week one, Henry managed to find the end zone vs the Bengals in week 10. Although the Ravens snuck out the victory, they were once down 21-7 late in the third quarter. That's when Derrick Henry broke the plane at the goal line, breaking two defenders for six. While the Bengals primarily kept Henry in check, especially the first half, all that mattered was the touchdown for betting purposes.

On an offensive that leads the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (76.74 %), how do we fade a Henry touchdown today? All hail King Henry, who continues to be the primary goal line scorer. No, it's not Lamar Jackson, who only has 2 rushing touchdowns on the year. Inside the 20, Henry's taken more than 85 percent of the rushing attempts, including a team high 35 attempts. While Jackson has 14 rushing attempts, and Justice Hill with 6 red zone attempts on the ground, the only clear cut option here is Henry.

Let's forget the goal line carries for a second. Henry is an explosive back, who's gone for the home run touchdown plays. Seeing him explode for 87 and 81 yards this season, don't discount Henry to go for long.

Final Anytime Touchdown NFL betting prediction: Derrick Henry ATS (-175 FanDuel)

Overall, Henry get's a Steelers defense, who's regressed a bit. Holding opponents to 10 points and under the first three weeks, allowed the Commanders to pour in 27 last week. Allowing the fourth least rushing yards on the season, they rank 9th best in running back touchdowns (7).  However, with that said, Austin Eckler crossed the goal line twice, and Jeremy McNichols scored a touchdown as well. One week before the BYE, we saw Giants running back Tryone Tracey Jr. score a touchdown, as well as Jet's back Breece Hall.  Now with Alex Highsmith out for week 11 with an ankle injury, T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig will handle the workload against Henry.  Allowing a rushing touchdown in all but four games, I'm confident in this anytime touchdown prediction today.

Limiting teams to scoring only 44 percent in the red zone,  the Steelers allow at least one rushing tuddy per game. We know Watt will be a formidable force on the defensive end, which will be a challenge for Henry. However, Henry has totaled 2 touchdowns in two of three career games vs the Steelers. Let's ride with King Henry this Sunday, who has one of the best stiff-arms in the NFL.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 11: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Best Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Odds: +105  (FanDuel)

2024-2024 NFL Stats

GP: 9  | Receptions: 54 | Targets: 67 | Yards: 524 |Receiving TD: 7 | Average: 9.7 |Rec Long: 35 | First Down: 34

My second prediction for NFL Sunday, I placed one unit on Detroit Lions star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown vs the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. Although missing a few weeks with injury this year, St. Brown has an incredible connection with Jared Goff. Scoring a touchdown in 7 of 9 games played this season, St. Brown is the clear cut favorite target, and it's not even close.

With sophomore tight end Sam LaPorta taking a slight regression, St. Brown leads the Lions with 67 targets on the season. Second on the team with 35 targets, Jameson Williams has a tiny, yet speedy frame to torch any defense. However, a viable Super Bowl contending team, St. Brown has been crucial to the Lions success. One of the most elite route runners in the NFL, St. Brown joins a Lions squad, who primarily relies on their running backs. Averaging 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game, the scoring duties are split between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. For a team that scores a 5th best 63.89 % in the red zone, the Lions average a fourth best 2 passing touchdowns each game.

The Jaguars Have Allowed 10 Touchdowns To Receivers This Season

Aside from the Ravens, this is a Lions team that's extremely potent on the offensive end. Running the ball in 45 percent of the time, this is a Detroit team that puts up 31.6 points per game. Given how dominant the offense is, I'm not terribly worried how much the running backs will affect the pass game. At 2-8, the Jaguars remain one of the least efficient team on both sides of the ball. With Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ruled out with a shoulder injury for Sunday's matchup, I expect the Lions to constantly burn the defense.

Speaking of defense, this is a Jaguars team that gives up the most yards per game in the NFL with 390.6. To put it lightly, this defense is downright terribly. Imagine truly what the Lions can produce against a team that allows nearly 400 yards per game. Allowing a third worst 261.2 yards through the air, it gets worse for Jacksonville. Allowing the fourth most passing touchdowns per game (1.9), they've allowed 19 opposing passing touchdowns through 10 games. A brutal stat, I expect St. Brown and the Lions to capitalize off that again today. Leading the Lions with 12 red zone targets, St. Brown leads the receiver score with target percentage (60 %) by a mile. With 6 of 7 coming inside the 20, St. Brown has an incredible 91.7 % receiving percentage in the red zone.

Final Anytime Touchdown NFL betting prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown ATS (+105 FanDuel)

Predicting St.Brown is the main slot receiver today, the Lions star has also equally lined up in the wide. Playing an equal and most amount of passing and running snaps in week 10, he gets a matchup with a decent linebacker core. While he hasn't put up quite the numbers from last season. OC Ben Johnson is one of the best play callers in the NFL. Second in the NFL with 7 passing touchdowns, St.Brown has scored a touchdown in every matchup except the first two weeks vs the Rams and Buccaneers. Able to score six vs top teams agains the pass in Tennessee and Houston, expect no less today.

If you're tailing my anytime touchdown scorer bets today, Jacksonville ranks dead least in the NFL in terms of defensive EPA and drop back EPA. Given Goff is more of a pocket quarterback, he should have plenty of time today.  Especially given the Jaguars rank the 5th worst in drop back sack rate. Overall, this is one of the best offensive teams vs an inefficient team on both sides.  A prime matchup for the Lions, expect Detroit to keep rolling. In his only career game vs the Jaguars, St. Brown erupted for 114 yards and two touchdowns back in 2022. Coming off a 60 yard, 1 touchdown performance vs Houston, ride with St. Brown again today.  I love the value for +105 odds on FanDuel.

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NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 11: Jonathan Taylor

Best Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD Odds: +109 Boosted (FanDuel)

2024-2024 NFL Stats

GP: 7  | Carries: 126 | Rushing Yards: 616 | Receiving Yards: 108 | Targets: 20 | Avg Rushing: 4.9 | Rush TD: 5 | Rec TD: 0 | Rush Long: 58 | First Down: 32

My third prediction for NFL Sunday, I placed one unit on Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown vs the New York Jets on the road. With five rushing touchdowns in seven games, Taylor's been held scoreless with Joe Flacco at the helm the last few weeks. With Anthony Richardson back under center, I love the chances of Taylor finding the end zone much more. Under Joe Flacco, the Colts had tough matchups vs the Bills and his three interceptions in week 10 didn't help.  Totaling 100 rushing yards before the half, Taylor was bottled up in terms of scoring. Combine that with a high amount of turnovers.

The Jets Have Given Up 5 Rushing Touchdowns Since Week 7

One of the most elite backs in the NFL, Taylor has scored a touchdown in every matchup with Richardson under center in all but one. Sure, Richardson has certainly had his struggles this season. However, they face a pathetic 3-7 Jets team, that's vastly underperformed this year. Dominated 31-6 in week 10 vs the Cardinals, New York was shut out in the second half. Even with some key defensive pieces D.J. Reed and  Sauce Gardner, Arizona torched New York for 147 yards on the ground. With that, four backs, including quarter back Kyler Murray destroyed the Jets with the running game. With James Connor finding the end zone for six, Murray had two touchdowns alone.

Allowing the fourth most rushing touchdowns with 14 on the season, the Jets haven't been able to stop the run. Allowing 134 yards on the ground, New York allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to pour in 2 touchdowns in week 8. Losing 6 of the last 7 games, the Jets have been a complete disaster. Ranking 26th in rush EPA, Taylor once again has a prime matchup for Sunday. Allowing a rushing touchdown in all games but one during that stretch, expect Taylor to score for six again today.

Final Anytime Touchdown NFL betting prediction: Jonathan Taylor ATS (+109 Boost FanDuel)

While the Colts have been passing heavy team (60 %), maybe that will change with Richardson back at Quarterback. With a 39 rushing touchdown percentage, the Colts average just under 1.0 rushing tuddy per game. With a 53.3 % red zone scoring rate, they have a decent matchup with the Jets, who allow opponents to score over 57 % in the end zone. Given Taylor is healthy, he's the true work horse for the Colts. The clear cut back, four of his five touchdowns have come inside the 20. With nearly 55 percent of red zone rush attempts, the Jets rank 26th in defensive rush sack.

Giving up seven touchdowns to running backs this season, New York has allowed five touchdowns on the ground since week 7 vs the Steelers. With Richardson back, I expect a more balanced approach of passing and running. Known to explode for big plays, the Jet's have give up one too many of this this year. Let's complete the cash out with Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown.