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Week 12 of the NFL is here, and we have 11 games on the slate. In this article, I will share my best anytime touchdown-scoring predictions. But first, let's dive into the schedule and odds for this Sunday!
With an NFL betting record of 38-25 in November, I am looking to increase the bankroll and cash out everyone! Cashing in on two of three bets in my articles last week, let's keep the hot streak going! It's important to note I've placed all of my touchdown bets within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook. While you can parlay all three picks, I placed them separately.Β Let's take a closer look at my three best anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday, November 24.
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Best Kareem Hunt Anytime TD Odds: -155 (DraftKings)
GP: 7Β | Carries: 139| Rushing Yards: 509 | Receiving Yards: 116 | Targets: 18| Avg Rushing: 3.7 | Rush TD: 5 | Rec TD: 0 | Rush Long: 17 | First Down: 27
My first anytime touchdown scorer prediction of the week, I placed one unit on Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt to find the end zone vs the Carolina Panthers. While this may be Hunt's last week as RB1, let's take full advantage in the books! With back Isaiah Pacheco inching closer to return, head coach Andy Reid stated Pacheco would be held out for week 12. Now Hunt has a juice matchup vs the Panthers, who've given up the second most rushing touchdowns with 17.
We all know the Panthers are the worst team defensively in the NFL, allowing a league high 31 points per game. Whether it was pure luck or a team progression, Carolina does have two straight victories vs the Saints and the Giants. Even with those victories, we saw Taysom Hill and Tyron Tracey Jr find the end zone. Let's call it as it is, the Panthers can't stop rushing touchdowns in the red zone, and that's been consistent all season long.
Allowing a NFL 161 rushing yards per game, they've given up a touchdown nearly in every game, including multiple to Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnston, and Chase Brown. With Tracey Jr. and Kamara rushing for a combined 258 yards on the ground over the last two weeks, this is a strong play for Sunday.
Hunt has filled in nicely with his former team, compiling 509 rushing yards and five touchdowns in seven games for the injured Pacheco. While Reid occasionally uses backs Samaje Perine and Carson Steele, Hunt has by far been the more favorable goal line back.
Leading the way with 32 red zone rushing attempts, it's been Hunt that's taken 64 % of red zone rush attempts. A sturdy and strong back, Hunt now faces a Panthers defense that's allowing an NFL worst 3.6 touchdowns per game. Even worse, Carolina allows 1.7 rushing tuddies per game, where opponents have over a 66 % red zone percentage. I don't see an issue with Hunt finding the end zone against an extremely weak defensive line and Carolina Linebacker core.
Given the Chiefs are one of the more efficient teams in the red zone, Patrick Mahomes and company are scoring in the endzone nearly 58 % this season. While Hunt's yards per carry isn't all that efficient at 3.7 yards per carry, I trust Mahomes to easily get the Chiefs within striking distance this week. Ranking 10th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (1.1), let's count on Hunt to be one of them.
Although Hunt has yet to score a touchdown in the last two games, the Bills and Broncos have elite defenses. With Hunt coming off a 14 carry game, he's had 15 carries inside the five yard line since week five alone.
It's very likely Hunt may receive some extra garbage time yards and attempts, especially if it's a blowout. Given Carolina ranks second worst in rush EPA, expect Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown Sunday vs the Panthers.Β
Best Brian Robinson Jr Anytime TD Odds: -145 (FanDuel)
GP: 8Β | Carries: 117 | Rushing Yards: 524 | Receiving Yards: 88 | Targets: 13| Avg Rushing: 4.5| Rush TD: 7 | Rec TD: 0 | Rush Long: 40| First Down: 31
My second anytime touchdown scoring prediction, I placed one unit on Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. to score a touchdown vs the Cowboys on Sunday. A classic NFC East division matchup, Robinson Jr has an excellent matchup vs Dallas at home. Again, let's call it at face value, the Cowboys are a disaster. Giving up the second most points in the NFL with 29.3,Β they've taken five straight losses. Demolished 34-10 by the Texans in week 11, Houston running back Joe Mixon had quite the performance with 109 yards on the ground and three touchdowns.
The worst part about this all, Mixon had no choice but to score a garbage time fourth quarter touchdown. Able to walk cross the plane against a pathetic defense, I expect Robinson Jr. to find similar success on Sunday.
Aside from Carolina, the Cowboys haven't been able to play a lick of defense, allowing the second most yards on the ground per game with 151. With that said, Dallas is allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL with 18. Giving up 4.7 yards per carry, this is a Dallas team that's seen opponents score over 74 % in the red zone. Yes you read that correctly. Aside from Micah Parsons, this is an extremely weak and injured defensive and linebacker core.
You may wondering why I chose Brian Robinson Jr. to score a touchdown of all players. Sure, head coach Dan Quinn has chosen to form a back committee with Austin Ekeler and Robinson Jr. While Eckler has outsnapped Brian Robinson Jr. 108-35 over the last two weeks, it's been BRJ that's been the better goal line. And when I say that, it's truly not even close. With 27 attempts inside the 20, Robinson Jr. has 7 rushing tuddies, compared to Ekelers 5.
In the week 11 26-18 loss vs the Eagles, we saw Robinson Jr fight through multiple defensive lineman to cross the plane for six inside the five yard line. That's what no. 8 does. He's a strong, physical and strong back. While Ekeler is a threat, especially in the backfield passing, it's been clear Quinn has trusted Robinson in these situations.
Scoring four touchdowns in the last four games, I'm going with Robinson Sunday. Sure the odds are slightly juiced at -145, there's argument you can grab Ekeler at higher odds. I truly love the matchup, and Quinn's decision to use him more in goal line situations. Third in the NFL with 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game, this is a Commanders team that coverts over 56 % in the red zone.
As terrible as Dallas has been on the defensive end, it's unclear how healthy quarterback Jayden Daniels is after suffering a rib injury. With that said, I expect Washington to run the ball down the Cowboys throats.
Given the Cowboys rank third worst in rush EPA, give me Brian Robinson Jr. to score a touchdown vs the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.Β
Best Quentin Johnston Anytime TD Odds: +200 (FanDuel)
GP: 8Β | Receptions: 22| Targets: 37 | Yards: 354 |Receiving TD: 6 | Average: 16.1 |Rec Long: 66 | First Down: 14
My third touchdown prediction, I placed one unit on Chargers receiver Quentin Johnston to find the end zone vs the Ravens on Sunday. For +200 odds on FanDuel, the Chargers have a tough matchup vs Baltimore. However, don't let the Ravens scare off bettors. They're giving up 9th most points in the NFL (24.6), including the most passing yards in the league with 284.5 yards per game. If the Chargers are going to win this matchup at home, it's going to come from Justin Herbert and his receiving core.
One of the more surprising teams of the year, the Chargers are legit Super Bowl contenders under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Although more of a defensive guy, Johnston has been a solid WR2 behind rookie Ladd McConkey. If McConkey is unable to suit up with a shoulder injury, I love this pick even more.
While McConkey and tight end Will Dissly have largely been Herbert's favorite targets, Johnston has been the clear cut red zone guy. Recording a touchdown in the last three weeks vs the Bengals, Titans, and Browns, let's go with it again. There's one aspect I know, he's torched the Browns for a 66-yard bomb on Nov 3. While 354 receiving yards hasn't exactly "wowed" bettors, 16.1 yards per catch is pretty impressive. With as accurate as Herbert has been, I'm all in for +220 odds.
Since Johnston has had the exact amount of snaps since McConkey (143) from weeks 9-11, Johnston has fallen behind as far as the favorite target inside the 20. Outscore 3 touchdowns vs 2 against McConkey, Johnston has still received a fair amount of receptions in the red zone (3). Catching 100 % of his pass, Johnston is a player that can easily score in the slot. However, we've seen him break the tackle and score for long.
Primarily lined up in the wide, Johnston should have a prime matchup vs corner back Brandon Stevens. Allowing 13.5 yards per reception, this is a perfect spot for Johnston. Considering Baltimore allows opponents to score over 53 % in the red zone, they currently five up the fifth most rushing touchdowns with 1.4 per game.
Overall, the Ravens have given up more touchdowns to wide receivers (17) than any other position. Having given up multiple receiving touchdowns to the Cowboys, Commaners, and Brown, this is a strong prediction for Sunday. The Bengals receivers have 7 touchdowns alone vs the Ravens this year. Since Baltimore ranks 21st in drop back EPA, Herbert should have plenty of time in the pocket.
With the run game likely to be bottled up, can the Chargers match Joe Burrow and the Bengals? After all, Burrow torched Baltimore for 428 yard and four touchdowns in week 10. With three headed to Ja'Mar Chase alone, expect the Chargers to continue their dominance through the air. After all, LA throws the ball for over 55 % of their plays.
A huge threat down the field, I'll take Quentin Johnston to score a touchdown for +200 odds Sunday vs the Ravens.Β
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