NFL Best Bets September 19: Patriots vs Jets Best Picks and Predictions Today

NFL week 3 is here, and we have a highly anticipated AFC Divisional matchup between the New England Patriots (1-1, 1-0 away) and the New York Jets (1-1, 0-0 home).

Their 10th matchup since the 2019 season, the Patriots have a 7-3 record against the Jets over that span.  Last matched up in January 2024, the Jets defeated the Patriots 17-3, and covered the spread as +2 point underdogs.

 (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

With very different rosters from last season, Aaron Rodgers will get the Patriots for the first time as a Jet.

To put things into perspective, Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian were the opposing quarterbacks in last year's matchup. With key players returning from injury, both the Patriots and Jets made significant additions in the offseason.

Along with the return of Aaron Rodgers, the Jets bolstered their offensive line, adding several linemen in the offseason. With the return of  running back Breece Hall, the Jets organization not only improved their pass protection, but added some depth and weapons (Mike Williams) for Rodgers.

After taking a brutal 32-19 loss to the 49ers in week one, the Jets bounced back against the Titans.

Defeating the Titans 24-17 as heavy favorites, it was rookie back Braelon Allen who found the endzone two times. If you're betting on rushing props, it's worth to keep an eye on the Jets running back committee.

Contrary to week one, it was the Jets defense that scored 17 points alone off the Titans turnovers. The loss of Jermaine Johnson with an achilles injury leaves the Jet's with big holes to fill.

Patriots Have Consistently Dominated The Jets

Expected to place in the bottom half of the NFL standings, the Patriots stunned bettors and fans with the 16-10 victory of the Cincinnati Bengals. +7.5 point underdogs, the Patriots totaled 170 yards on the ground.

1. Limiting the Bengals to just 70 rushing yards, it was the time of possession that was crucial to New England's victory.
2. While week one was great, the Patriots came back down to earth. +3.5 point underdogs, New England surrendered to Seattle 23-30, thanks to a Jason Myers 30 yard field goal.
3. With Jacoby Brissett under center, it was Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson, who combined for 177 yards on the ground.
4. Somewhat of a concern, Hunter Henry led all receivers with 109 yards. With no other receiver tallying over 20 yards, it's still unclear who head coach Jerod Mayo will tab as QB1.

With kick-off slated for 8:15 p.m. ET, the Jets head into this matchup at heavy moneyline and +6.5 point spread favorites. If you're betting on the NFL, the over/under is set for 38.5 points, which is quite low. 1-9 in the last 10 against New England, can the Jets cover and win straight up at Metlife?

Winless in their last five home outings, this matchup should be quite different post Tom Brady Era.

Odds Are Current As OF September 19 AT 11 A.M. ET

Are you ready to bet on this week's NFL matchup between the Patriots and the Jets? You've come to the right spot! Here at Ballislife, I provide my best analysis, along with my top value picks for the games.

With a 48-31 NFL betting record on the season, I am up over 5 units since the start of the season. Below you can find my three best totals bets, along with player prop bets. Included is a list of the updated odds, along with the current injury reports.

Looking to bet on the Patriots vs Jets matchup? The game will air on Prime Video.

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NFL WEEK 3 BETS: New England Patriots Vs New York Jets FanDuel Odds For September 19

MONEYLINE

• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: +220
• NEW YORK JETS: -270

SPREAD

• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: +6.5 (-120)
• NEW YORK JETS: -6.5 (-102)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 38.5 (-115)
• UNDER: 38.5 (-105)

BEST ODDS FOR NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs NEW YORK JETS

• The New York Jets get their first home matchup of the season at home.  Caesars Sportsbook offers best odds with -110, favoring the Jets at -6.
• The New England Patriots will head to Metlife Stadium for the first time since September 2023. FanDuel Sportsbooks offers the best odds at -120, tabbing the Patriots as +6.5 underdogs.
• FanDuel and BetMGM currently offers the best odds for the game total, which has the total 38.5 (-110 BetMGM) for the over, and (-105 FanDuel) for the under.

New England Patriots Vs New York Jets Injury Report

PATRIOTS

1. David Andrews, Center: Questionable (Hip)
2. Sidy Sow, Guard: Questionable
3. Deatrich Wise Jr, DE: Questionable (Shoulder)
4. Jabrill Peppers, Safety, Questionable (Shoulder)
5. Marcus Jones, CB, Questionable (Knee)

 JETS

1. C.J. Mosley, LB: Questionable (Toe)
2. Jermaine Johnson, LB: OUT (Achilles)
3. Haason Reddick, DE: Reserve-DNR
4. Zaire Barnes, LB: IR
5. Wes Schweitzer, Guard: IR

NFL Bets Prop Bets for Thursday, September 19 Week 3

NFL Player Prop Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson 2024 Season Stats

GP: 2  | Carries: 46 | Rushing Yards: 201 | Receiving Yards: 15 | Targets: 8 | Avg Rushing: 4.4 | Rush TD: 2 | Rec TD: 0 | Long: 18 | First Down: 11

• Over 65.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)

Most likely a popular prop for tonight's NFL matchup, I'm betting on Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson to total over 65.5 rushing yards for -113 odds on FanDuel. Poised for a breakout year, Stevenson is proven he's the true workhorse for this Patriots team, which should continue Thursday.

1. Top five in NFL  rushing yards (201), Stevenson already has two touchdowns on the season.
2. As we saw in weeks prior, the Patriots running back had some colossal weeks, totaling 81 yards against the Seahawks.
3. Torching the Bengals for 120 in week one, we Stevenson run up the middle several times, and has been excellent in breaking tackles.

With a strong frame at 6 feet even, 220 pounds, Stevenson has the strength to carry this Patriots team. In fact, Stevenson ranks second in the NFL with 117 rushing yards after contact. If that doesn't speak volumes, I don't know what does.

A slight concern, the Patriots signed veteran back Antonio Gibson in the offseason. Putting up 114 yards in the first few weeks, it's put a slight dent into Stevensons workload.

Averaging 75 % of the snaps in the first two weeks, that aligns with running backs Breece Hall and Devin Singletary. Playing the 6th highest snap count percentage among backs, I am not terribly concerned.

This NFL Player Prop Is 2-0 On the Season

I do expect Stevenson to have greater success, as he struggled against the Seahawks with 81 yards rushing on 21 carries. More than double Gibson's carries, that's an average of  3.6 yards per carry.

• While the Jet's defense was projected higher than they've performed, the Patriots running back gets New York, who's allowed the 9th most yards on the ground this season (310).

If you're betting on the NFL, the Patriots surprisingly run 53 percent of the plays, compared to 47 percent through the air. Although Jacoby Brissett is a solid veteran quarterback, it's still unclear who his top wideout is, aside from Hunter Henry.

With drastic changes made in the wideouts, quarterbacks, and coaching, it's safe to say the Patriots have and should continue to rely on the run game.

As for the Jets, they have some elite players on the defensive end.

1. However, that d-line has been a little shaky, giving up the 24th most rushing yards in the NFL this season (155).
2. Week 1, we saw 49ers backup running back Jordan Mason stomp over the Jets for a touchdown and 147 rushing yards.
3. Allowing 180 yards on the ground, they couldn't stop the run week 2 agains the Titans.

Compiling 130 yards on the ground, it was newly acquired back Tony Pollard who led the way with 62 rushing yards. From there, Will Levis, Tyjae Spears, and Calvin Ridley combined for 68.

Overall, the Jets are allowing 33 rush attempts and the fourth most opponent time on the field with 34 minutes. With opponents rushing for 19 total first down attempts, It's safe to say I'll lay the points with Stevenson tonight.

Holding an average of 100.5 rushing yards per game, I do believe the line is set low.

Final NFL betting prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson O 65.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)

If you are an NFL bettor, Stevenson cleared thus prop lines by a mile, which the line set for 61.5 vs the Seahawks (81 rushing yards), and 50.5 against the Bengals (120). If we look at the statistics, he's hit over the rushing prop in four of the last outings, dating back to late 2023.

1. Based off the current trajectory, the Patriots are heavily relying on the run game to keep their offensive afloat.
2. With Stevenson averaging 23 carries per game, he's expected to have another monster game.
3. With rain projected in the forecast at 77 percent, it's best if the Patriots run the ball.

I honestly can't see Brissett lighting it up against the Jets secondary that's ranked high in the NFL. Although not the top receiving back, I expect him to see some some looks from Brissett, as we saw with Tony Pollard last week.

NFL Totals Bet: New England Patriots Vs New York Jets

• Over 38.5 points (+131 FanDuel Boost)

Heading into this matchup, I bet on the Patriots and the Jets matchup to total over 38.5 points for +131 boosted odds on FanDuel.

First of all, this line is simply too low, and one of the lowest you will see in an NFL game. Averaging out to 19 points scored per team, it's simply too low for what we are looking at.

• Over the course of the 2024 NFL season, the Jets are scoring 21 points per game, while the Patriots are putting up 18. While it's expected to rain, that may have some factor on the total outcome of the game.

If you're making bets on the NFL game tonight, the under's have historically hit between the Patriots and the Jets. 3-6-1 against over/unders in the last 10 matchups, it's the under points thats hit in four straight matchups.

Notorious for being a low scoring affair, not one total has been set higher than 38.5 since October of 2022.

In the past four matchups, the totals haven't remotely touched 38.5. Dating back to last year the under's came in at 20, 25, 13, and 39 in October 2022. I would like to point out, the Jets offense alone is extremely potent, and it's fair to say there's been some drastic changes as quarterback for both teams.

• No, it's not Mac Jones vs Zach Wilson, or Siemian vs Zappe. With the return of Aaron Rodgers, I expect the Jets to put up at least 20 points themselves.

The Prop Has Hit The Under In Four Straight Matchup Between The Patriots And Jets

Overall, I truly believe this Jet's team hasn't scratched the surface of their potential. Putting up 531 total yards isn't terribly impressive. With lethal options on the offensive side, it's safe to say the Jets have a healthy balance of pass and run attack. Now with rookie Braelon Allen in the mix, the running back committee is truly frighting.

Coming off injuries, receiver Mike Williams has yet to get fully throttled. With Garrett Wilson and Rodgers favorite Adam Lazard in the wideouts, it will truly hard to defend the Jets. With that level of talent, I love the over for tonight.

• As far as the Patriots, their defense hasn't been terribly atrocious, giving up 582 total yards per game.
• However, I will point out their struggle to contain the pass, which they've allowed a total of 466 yards (233 average).

If Julius Peppers is unable to suit up for today's game, the Patriots will have a big gap to fill.

With several questions regarding their secondary, both defensives have injuries and question marks.

As a whole, Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked spectacular, and Jacoby Brissett has undoubtedly struggled to push the ball down field. Not compiling more than 150 yards passing, that is definitely a concern.

1. Given Rodgers doesn't spend a ton of time in the pocket (2.2 seconds), he has plenty of short and long pass options. H
2. e now gets the Patriots, who got torched by Seahawks receivers DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith- Njigba for 246 yards.
3. Allowing 327 yards receiving, the Patriots will have to fill those defensive injuries.

Final NFL betting prediction: Patriots vs Jets over 38.5 points (+131 FanDuel Boost)

Sure, the Patriots defense has been shaky. However, Jacoby Brissett has completed a respectable 58 percent of his passes on the season, which includes a touchdown and 270 yards.

That's not bad for a quarterback who's only played a total of five games in the last two seasons. Even with coaching changes, Brisssett is no stranger to New England. Back for this second stint, he's familiar with the offense.

If you plan to make a bet on the totals, the Jets are coming off 24 points scored, and are averaging 22 per game during the last 5. Although that dates back to last season, I do believe Rodgers is due for a breakout game at home. Averaging 17 points over the last five games, the Patriots have shown they can put up points, especially against the Bengals and Seahawks.

Tonight, I'm laying the points with the over. I do believe both the Jets and Patriots will break the streak. The question remains, can they overcoming a short week, especially since the game is on a Thursday night?

NFL Player Prop Bet: Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett 2024 Season Stats

GP: 2  | Passing TD: 1| INT: 0 | CMP %: 58.8 | Passing Yards: 270| Rushing Yards: 38 |Rushing TD: 0 | Sack: 4 | QBR: 62.5 | RTG: 79.7

• No interception thrown (-140 FanDuel)

One of my favorite player prop bets of the day, I'm betting on Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett to not throw an interception against the New York Jets. Although the value is juiced, I couldn't resist this prop.

Jacoby Brissett is a journeyman veteran quarterback, who's in his 9th NFL season. Back with the Patriots for his second tour, he's had tenures with the Colts, Dolphins, Browns, and Commanders.

1. In a career 81 games, the Patriots quarterback has a total of 52 touchdowns, and only 24 interceptions.
2. With the most interceptions coming in 2017 (7), Brissett has yet to throw an INT in 5 career games with New England.
3. Better yet, Brissett hasn't thrown an interception since the 2016 season with the Browns.
4. Not typically a interception risk, Brissett threw for just six INTs in 16 games.

I love this prop, because it's different than most popular bets, and one I really do think can cash and keep us in the green. Knowing Brissett doesn't throw a ton of touchdowns, he faces a Jets defense that has one lone interception, by Brandin Echols.

Final NFL betting prediction: Jacoby Brissett: No interceptions thrown (-140 FanDuel)

With that said, Brissett is a quarterback who's struggled to get the ball down field, and his longest pass went to Hunter Henry last Sunday. Personally, I don't have any belief he'll air the ball out a ton, especially with young receivers. While the chemistry isn't down pat, Brissett is averaging an minimal 5.3 passing yards per attempt.

While that's not considered a large amount, I don't expect him to throw it deep tonight, especially against Sauce Gardner and a strong Jets secondary.

If you plan to bet on the NFL, Brissett will matchup against Aaron Rodgers, who's tied with Jacoby Brissett for the fewest career interceptions percentage (1.4 %). I expect Brissett to be a game manager more than anything tonight.

Expecting shorter dart throws, he's only thrown for one 20+ this season. Overall, Brissett has yet to thrown a pass for over 40 yards. For these reasons, I'm taking Jacoby Brissett to not throw an interception tonight.

In four career games against the Jets, Brissett compiled two touchdowns and one interception.