NFL Divisional Round Best Bets For Saturday (January 18): Texans vs Chiefs Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

Key Points
  • SJ breaks down her best bets for the Saturday NFL Divisional playoff matchup between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL Divisional Round is here, and we have an exciting AFC matchup ahead!

 (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

With the NFL once again slated for Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 home) will host the Houston Texans (10-7, 5-4 away) at Arrowhead Stadium.

Crowned winners of the AFC South, the Texans knocked off the Los Angeles Chargers in a shocking 32-12 victory last week. As they head into the next phase of the playoffs, the Chiefs remain their biggest threat yet.

After a week one BYE, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs find themselves as -8.5 point spread favorites heading into Saturday's divisional game. Looking to be the first team in NFL history to three-peat in the Super Bowl Era, the Chiefs are coming off six straight AFC Championships and two Super Bowl wins.

The matchup winner will move on to the AFC Conference Championship game. Set to take place on January 26, the Texans or Chiefs will match up with the winner of the Ravens vs Bills showdown on Sunday.

With the second favorite odds to win the Super Bowl at +350 on FanDuel, can the Chiefs pull it off again? Or will the Texans stun bettors as massive underdogs? Having the least favorite odds to win Super Bowl LIX at +4400, the Texans are headed to their second straight NFL Divisional round.

Odds Are Current As Of January 16 AT 10 A.M. ET

In this article, I will break down my three unique best bets for the Texans vs Chiefs face-off on Saturday. A combination of player prop and spread bets, let's continue to stay in the green and cash out. While eight teams remain in playoff contention, let's capitalize on all of it. With bankroll management in mind, I'm up nine units sports betting on the month.

With kick off-slated for 4:30 p.m. ET, the AFC clash will air on ESPN/ABC.

Let's take a further look into the current odds and my three best bets for the Saturday, January 18 NFL Divisional matchup between the Texans and Chiefs.

Are you in search of further NFL Division Round and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL Divisional Round Bets: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs FanDuel Odds For January 18

MONEYLINE

  • HOUSTON TEXANS: +360
  • KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -450

SPREAD

  • HOUSTON TEXANS: +8.5 (-112)
  • KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -8.5 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 41.5 (-110)
  • UNDER: 41.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR HOUSTON TEXANS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

  • DraftKings offers the best odds at -105 for the Chiefs, who are -8.5 point spread favorites at home.
  • Bet MGM provides the best odds at +375 for the Houston Texans to win the moneyline.
  • BetMGM and Draftkings Sportsbook currently offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the under (41.5) at -105, while DraftKings offers the best value for the over (41.5) at -108 odds.

2024-2025 HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS: TEXANS VS CHIEFS

  • December 21, 2024: Texans 19, Chiefs 27 (Kansas City -3.5, over 42.5)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Injury Report

TEXANS

  1. Azeez Al-Shaair, LB: Questionable
  2. Shaq Mason, G: Doubtful
  3. Joe Mixon, RB: Questionable
  4. Dalton Schultz, TE: Questionable
  5. Robert Woods, WR: Questionable

CHIEFS

  1. Jack Cochrane, LB: OUT-IR
  2. Mecole Hardman, WR: OUT-IR
  3. Skyy Moore, WR: OUT- IR
  4. Marlon Tuipulotu, DT: OUT-IR
  5. Jaylen Watson, CB: OUT-IR

 

NFL Divisional Round Predictions for Saturday, January 18

 Spread Bet: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

  • Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 ( -128 FanDuel)

My first best bet for the Divisional Round, I placed one unit on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the -7.5 favorable spread vs the Houston Texans.

While some bettors are taking the Texans to upset, I am not one of those believers. For -128 odds on FanDuel, I believe the Chiefs will declare victory by more than a touchdown.

Having finished 10-7 in a weak AFC South Division, the Texans finished out the season 1-2 vs the Chiefs, Ravens and Titans. Boasting one of the easier 2024-2025 schedules in the NFL, that's not to say this team can't content under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

  • By added a brilliant defensive coach and drafting CJ Stroud, the Texans emerged as a back-to-back 10-7 team after a cumulative 11-38 three-year record.

Now the Texans find themselves as massive underdogs heading into Saturday's divisional matchup on the road. With a 7-8-2 ATS record, we saw the Texans cover impressive underdog spreads vs the Lions (+4) and Packers (+3). One may wonder why I chose the Chiefs when the Texans came within three points of defeating the Lions. Yes, Houston was without Nico Collins on the road.

It was an overall gutsy win against one of the top teams in the league. Forcing Jared Goff to throw five interceptions is nothing to scoff at. In reality, it's a testament to how Ryans has changed the defensive culture in Houston.

  • While that's impressive, things got ugly down the stretch for Houston.

The Chiefs Dominated The Texans 27-19 Week 16

Just three weeks ago, we saw the Chiefs dominate the Texans 27-19 at home. With Mahomes and Hunt combining for two rushing touchdowns, it wasn't yardage on the ground for either side that made a difference. Aside from holding the Texans to nine second half points, it was third down efficiency and clock management that made all the difference for Kansas City.

One weakness of the Texans has been their ability to efficiently score in the red zone all season (49.18 %). Although Stroud connected with Tank Dell for one touchdown and 98 yards, the receiver room will be quite thin Saturday.

  • With Dell and Stefon Diggs sidelined with season ending injuries, Robert Woods has yet to practice this week.

That leaves Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie III to take care of business vs a Chiefs team, who allowed the 6th fewest yards per game to receivers (138.8).

With Stroud enduring a sophomore slump, week 17 was as ugly as they come. Trampled by the Ravens 31-2, the sole two points came from a safety late in the first quarter. With another weak performance on the ground, Stroud failed to connect with a single receiver for a touchdown. Sacked for 37 yards, Collins led the receiving core with 58 yards. Combine that with a messy fumble by Metchie III.

Atrocious (3-15) on third down conversions, the Texans were outperformed on the ground, 251-58 yards.

  • While they won't again face Derrick Henry this weekend, their time of possession and red zone attempts were monumental reasons for the loss. Add that to 31 unanswered points.

How Well Can The Texans Defense Hold Up Against Mahomes Receiving Core?

Can the Texans upset, sure they can. However, we are talking about a Chiefs team that's coming off 11 days rest. Although defeated 38-0 in the season finale by the Broncos, Andy Reid opted to sit his starters. Again we haven't seen Mahomes since Christmas. That's nearly a month off from playing competitive football.

Overall, the Chiefs haven't been great, 7-9-1 ATS this year. 6-7-1 as the favorite, we saw the Panthers and Raiders cover large spreads. A team that finished out the season 6-1, it's playoff time.

  • While their +59 point differential was far below the Broncos and Chargers, and Texans finished the season with 0 differential.

One of the prime defensive teams in the NFL, the Chiefs gave up the fourth least points per game (19.2). Now they face a Texans team who's struggled to put points on the board at times. Averaging 21.9 points per game, this is a Texans team that doesn't put a ton of yards up (319.7. Their defensive has been the main catalyst for success, limiting the Chargers and Titans to a combined 26 points over the last two weeks.

Houston defeating the Chargers 32-12 was not on my bingo card last week. With a injury depleted receiving core, running back Joe Mixon gave Houston some life with 106 rushing yards. Forcing Justin Herbert to throw four interceptions, the Texans fully recovered from the first quarter fumble. The defense took care of them and then some.

On Saturday, it will be an entirely different atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. As temperatures plan to dip below 24 degrees, Stroud hasn't performed as well in these conditions.

  • Completing 57 % of passes outdoors is a monumental difference from a 65.8 % indoors.

Final NFL Divisional Round betting prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-128 FanDuel)

Sure, the Chiefs haven't shown they are as great as years past, but they still hold the no. 1 seed. It will be interesting if Mahomes and company will be able to convert on third down vs an efficient defense.

While the Texans defense is no joke, the Chiefs are fully healthy, including their defensive line. Aside from the last week, the Chiefs have a +41 point differential since week 16.

No. 7 in dropback EPA, and no.2. in dropback sack rate, the Texans defense is strong.However, we are talking about the back-to-back reigning champions. I simply don't believe Houston can keep up with the amount of weapons Mahomes has in his pocket.

  • With the moneyline juiced at -450, I'll lay the points with the Kansas City Chiefs as my best bet for Saturday.

 Player Prop Bets Saturday: CJ Stroud

GP: 17| CMP: 336 | ATT: 532 | Passing Yards: 4,108 | Passing TD: 23 | Rushing yards: 167 | INT: 12

  • O 14.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

My second best bet for the NFL Divisional round, I placed one unit on Texas quarterback CJ Stroud to record over 14.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs.

With an innate ability to escape the pocket, we saw Stroud dance around for 42 rushing yards against the Chargers. While Stroud clearly isn't on the level of Lamar Jackson, his scrambling techniques are quite impressive. No. 15 in dropback EPA, Stroud may get some time in the pocket. However, it's unlikely with a healthy pass rush.

  • Since I have the under on Stroud's passing yards, I expect a ton of pressure from the Chiefs defense. Just a few weeks ago, we saw just that with Stroud scrambling for 23 rush yards.

Overall, it's the playoffs, and look for Stroud to do just about anything to get the first down. After witnessing Bo Nix (47) and Russell Wilson (55) run for their lives, I expect no different on Saturday.  No. 26 in drop back sack rate, expect Stroud to move the chains when it matters the most with his legs.

Final NFL Divisional Round betting prediction: CJ Stroud O 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

This is a strong player prop bet, and asking for 15 yards isn't much. I firmly believe this can cash out in just one play alone. Given Stroud has rushed for an average of over 18 yards on the ground in road games, this is one of my favorite bets.

I truly don't trust the Texans offensive line, who allowed over a 35 % pressure rate. We saw that last week, but how long will it hold up against the Chiefs?

With a longest rush of 27 yards last week vs the Chargers, I'm taking CJ Stroud to record over 14.5 rushing yards vs the Chiefs Saturday as my top prediction.

 

 Player Prop Bets Saturday: Dalton Schultz

GP: 17  | Receiving TD: 2 | Targets: 85 | Yards: 532 | Average: 10.0 | Long: 32 | First Down: 26

  • O 35.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

My last bet for Saturday, I placed one unit on Texans tight end Dalton Schultz to record over 35.5 receiving yards vs the Chiefs.

Shultz will remain a top target next to Nico Collins. As injuries have piled up for the Texans receiving core, it's unclear if Robert Woods is able to give it a go. If not, Schultz remains one of my favorite options for Stroud.

We can forget Schultz performance last week against the Chargers, who finished with 23 yards on four targets. While questionable on the injury report, the tight end should be expected to suit up.

  • While Schultz has broken the 60 yard plane a few times, he's averaged just over 31 receiving yards over 17 games. Yet to tally over 30 yards without Dell and Diggs in the lineup, Schultz did haul in 53 yards on 8 targets week 16 vs the Chiefs.

If you're tailing one of my top picks, there's good news on the horizon. Schultz faces a Chiefs defense who's taken quite a step back. Allowing the most yards to tight ends in the NFL (1,191), they gave up the most receiving yards to tight ends with 70.1 per game. While Schultz isn't the top tight end in the league, he's certainly a viable option for Stroud.

Final NFL Divisional Round betting prediction: Dalton Schultz Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Now, Schultz not only faces a Chiefs defense that gives up 8 targets per game to tight ends, but allowed Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth to record 60 yards in week 17.

Since week 8, six tight ends have recorded over 40+ yards vs the Chiefs. Playing 73 % of snaps last week, I only expect this number to increase. Averaging 39.5 air yards per game, Schultz is hauling an impressive 15.4 % of the teams targets.

  • Although Collins is the clear cut no.1. option, expect Stroud to pass the ball around.  With a prime matchup ahead, I'll take Dalton Schultz over 35.5 receiving yards. Hitting the over in just four games this year, one came against the Chiefs. 
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