
A Super Bowl rematch always carries with it great anticipation, and the wait for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles has felt unbearable.
As we get set for the game and begin locking in our bets, we'll survey each team as we predict who will score the first touchdown in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Let's talk about which players have historically pulled this off and lay out the best odds -- but before we do, remember that this is a highly-volatile market and odds are always long for good reason. Now, let's get into some picks.
Over the last 25 years, the first touchdown scorer in the Super Bowl has come from the running back position 25% of the time -- the second largest denomination of any position.
Despite the return of Isiah Pacheco late in the year, this backfield remains Hunt's. He played 47% of the snaps in the Divisional Round and 58% a couple of weeks ago against the Buffalo Bills -- and that's due in large part to his excellent production.
The Eagles remain an excellent team against the rush, sure, but the Chiefs own one of the most prolific offenses in the game and should they move the ball down near the end zone will look to get the ball to Hunt. He's scored a touchdown in four straight games -- and has scored the first of the game in two straight.
We noted that the vast majority of players to cash in this market have been wideouts, and hyper-focusing a bit we see that 16.7% of the time this has come from the WR2 position -- beating out WR1s by over four percentage points.
In turn, we'll look at each team's WR2, beginning with DeVonta Smith.
Smith has only scored the first touchdown for Philly once, but he racked up eight touchdowns in all this season and should draw a much friendlier matchup than A.J. Brown here, who will draw Trent McDuffie here, leaving Jaylen Watson to cover the talented youngster.
The Eagles haven't been the best team in the world at scoring first, but I do think if they're to pick one up it'll come from Smith rather than Brown or Saquon Barkley -- so you can't beat this price.
Finally, we'll head to arguably the best odds on the board which come from DeAndre Hopkins -- getting the start at WR2 opposite Xavier Worthy.
Hollywood Brown has out-snapped Hopkins in the last two weeks, but he's continued to prove a liability in the passing game for yet another offense with just three grabs on seven targets. I'm expecting Kansas City to increase Hopkins' workload in the biggest game of the year, which means more snaps at this coveted WR2 position as we look into this market.
Both teams scored the first touchdown in about half of their games, so with nothing truly between the two, there's inherent value in taking Kansas City's options in the key positions.
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