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NFL week 10 is here, and there are ten games on the slate! In this article, you'll find my best anytime touchdown bets! While this can be a risky play, I've wagered on a combination of running backs and receivers. Keeping my bankroll management in mind, I've chosen to place all four ATS plays as straight bets. But first, let's take a look at the NFL Week 10 slate and current odds:
Let's take a dive and analyze my four anytime touchdown predictions for November 10. With an NFL betting of 82-61, I am up over two units on the season. Let's stay hot in week 10 and cash out these anytime touchdown best bets for Week 10!
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GP: 9Β | Carries: 89 | Rushing Yards: 442 | Receiving Yards: 116 | Targets: 17 | Avg Rushing: 5.0 | Rush TD: 2 | Rec TD: 0 | Long: 19 | First Down: 20
Slated to kick off in Germany, the Giants will take on the Panthers for the early morning game. My first player prop bet of today, I placed one unit on Giants running back Tyrone Tracey Jr. to score a touchdown on Sunday. The clear number one back for the Giants, Tracey Jr. has been one bright spot for the Giants. Amid New York's four game skid, they now face the 2-7 Panthers. Arguably the worst team in the league, this touchdown prop was enticing to pass up.
At -125 odds on FanDuel, Tracey Jr. only has two rushing touchdowns on the season. However, given the Giants hold an NFL worst red zone scoring percentage (40 %), they have a prime matchup today. I truly mean that when I say it. Aside from edging out the Saints 23-22 in week 9, the Panthers defense is absolutely atrocious. Allowing an NFL worst 15 rushing touchdowns, Carolina truly haven't been able to stop anyone defensively. Although they've improved slightly over the last two weeks vs the Broncos and Saints, they allow a league worst 32.6 points per game.
Aside from a few corners (Jaycee Horn) and Jadeveon Clowney, they have an extremely weak/injured defensive line and linebacker core.Β Allowing nearly 160 yards on the ground, we saw Saints running back destroy Carolina's defense for 155 rushing yards in week 10. And that was solely on the receiving end! Tallying 215 total yards, Kamara totaled 60 yards receiving. Although New Orleans has some decent blockers, Kamara couldn't be stopped, especially up the middle. Failing to find the end zone, this trajectory puts Tracy Jr. in a prime spot.
Although holding running backs to zero touchdowns in the last two outings, we've witnessed
Yes, I know the Giants haven't been efficient on the offense end. In fact, they hold the lowest scoring red zone percentage in the entire NFL (40 %).Β Averaging the least amount of points per game (15.4), I typically wouldn't bet on Daniel Jones and the Giants. However, the 2024 5th round picks has been gaining steam in the betting world. For Tracey Jr., we've only seen his snap counts increase since week 1. While Devin Singletary was projected to be New York's featured back, Tracey Jr. has certainly taken advantage of Singletary's absences due to injury. We in fact saw a season-high 72.% snap count, compared to Singletary's 28 % in week 9.Β Given there's been a shift in running back duties, make room bet
If you're betting on the NFL, I'm high on Tracy Jr. to score a touchdown on Sunday. Although the rookie didn't quite fit into Brian Daboll's plans for the first four weeks, his production has vastly increased since week 5 vs the Seahawks. Although yardage and scoring has been inconsistent, it's the 145 rushing yards vs the Steelers and 129 against the Seahawks that give me faith. In an offense thats been pretty much abysmal, Daniel Jones struggles to get the ball down the field. Given Singletary hasn't found the end zone since September 22, the floor is open for Tracey Jr. Once again outperforming Singletary with 66 rushing yards vs the Commanders in week 9, look for him to score today.
Let's hope this game oversees doesn't mess up the Giants run game. New York's defense has been stellar, however, this is simply matchup based. Since Carolina has such trouble scoring, I expect their defensive unit to be on the field more often than not. Back the rookie running back vs a pathetic defense.
GP: 8Β | Receiving TD: 5 | Targets: 69 | Yards: 783 | Average: 16.3 | Long: 97 | First Down: 33
My second player prop for Sunday, I placed one unit on Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown vs the Jaguars. One of the most elite receivers in the NFL, I'm fully expecting the griddy in the end zone.
With Sam Darnold at the helm, Jefferson is having another career year, averaging 16.3 yards per carry. With 783 receiving yards and five touchdowns on the year, he's on pace to match or exceed his production in 2021 After scoring a touchdown for the first five weeks, JJ has a two week dry spell. However, that shouldn't deter bettors from placing wagers on his receiving yards. Coming off a season-high 137 yards vs the Colts in week 9, I'll ride the 19.6 yards per carry momentum.
Speaking of Darnold, his connection with Jefferson is deniable. After all, he aired out a 97-yard touchdown bomb in week 2 vs the 49ers. Catching three touchdowns on 44.4 % in the end zone, Jefferson isn't just a ten yard catch kind of guy. One of the best route runner in the NFL, Jefferson has some of the best hands of any receiver i've witnessed in my lifetime. With that said, he get's a juicy matchup with the Jaguars, who are on a two game losing skid.
Occasionally lined up in the slot, Jefferson is more of an outside threat. And now he has a fairly decent matchup against Tyson Campbell. With coverage efficiency down since 2022, it will be a tall task.
On the verge of making history through his first five seasons, I love this prop talent wise and matchup wise. With the matchup, it's highly unlikely Campbell will cover Jefferson all night. One of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Jaguars allow the third most points per game (28 PPG). To make matters worse, they've allowed opponents to find the red zone nearly 70 %, and over 2 touchdowns per game.
Given there's only so many Justin Jefferson's in the world, the Jaguars simply don't have the secondary to stop him. Aside from Campbell, the Jaguars have weak safety and corner players. Ranked 29th vs receivers, the Jags have let up 22 touchdowns this year. That's five less than the NFL leading Carolina Panthers. To put this touchdown bet into perspective, Jacksonville has given up 19 receiving touchdowns through nine weeks.
Now, does Jefferson have threats? Sure. Third year receiver Jalen Nailor has already connected with Darnold for six touchdowns, along with Josh Oliver/Jordan Addison for a combined five. Leading all Vikings receivers with 8 red zone targets, JJ clearly leads the team in target percentage. Even with that, Nailor's only been targeted 28 % in the red zone. As mentioned before, not one receiver on this team has the capability to catch a 90+ yard touchdown, yet scorch any cornerback for 6 with those hands.
While Minnesota has surprised bettors this year, they rank 7th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (64 %). Scoring at a high rate, let's give Jefferson some love in the books! With a disastrous 2-7 season, Jacksonville owns the worst pass defense in the NFL. Allowing 264 passing yards, Justin Jefferson is my top anytime touchdown bet for week 10.
Although the Jaguars have done a decent job preventing WR1s from finding the end zone in recent weeks, they've allowed at least one passing touchdown in all games but one this year.
If quarterback Mac Jones suits up in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, expect the Jaguars defense to make quite the appearance. As much as they've struggled offensively, Jefferson will get plenty of looks.Β Pick and predict Jefferson to score a touchdown Sunday.
GP: 9Β | Carries: 135 | Rushing Yards: 632 | Receiving Yards: 3o3 | Targets: 86 | Avg Rushing: 4.7 | Rush TD: 4 | Rec TD: 1 | Rush Long: 28 | First Down: 31
My third player prop for Sunday, I placed one unit on Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to score a touchdown vs the New Orleans Saints. With four rushing touchdowns on the season, Robinson has already tied his touchdown production from last season. While the Falcons are rocking with a back committee of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, head coach Raheem Morris has already expressed his desire to get Robinson more touches. Now that Arthur Smith is out of the equation, Robinson's been far more production for Atlanta.
Entering week 10 with 632 rushing yards, Robinson has become a favorite target in the backfield as well for Kirk Cousins. And let's face it, Cousin's is a massive upgrade at Quarterback. The leading back for the Falcons, Robinson hasn't seen the end zone in two weeks.Β Β off the season strong, the Saints are having a miserable season. Sitting with a 2-7 record, they went from a projected top 5 defense, to allowing the 8th most points per game (25.4).
With that said, the Saints haven't been able to stop anyone, allowing over 136 yards rushing per game. Suffering second consecutive losses, New Orleans couldn't even hold it together against the Panthers. With Chubba Hubbard walking in the end zone twice, the Saint's certainly helped him earn a contract extension. Allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per matchup, this is a beat up Saints team that's allowed a rushing touchdown in all games but two.
Indeed, we've seen several players tally more than one touchdown, including Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, and multiple scoring routes for various backs. In their first and only matchup thus far this year, Robinson was pretty much dissapeared for a majority of the game. Bottled up for 28 yards on seven carries, Kirk Cousins had a heavy passing yardage day.
Overall both these teams are heading in the opposite directions. The Saints have allowed a fourth worst 12 rushing touchdowns this season, and Robinson has found the end zone in three of the last four games.Β Since he's had increased carries, Bijan's increased his workload, with 19 and 21 carries vs the Cowboys and Seahawks. With far more touches and rushing attempts in the red zone compared to Allgeier, give me Bijan Robinson to score a touchdown today.
A versatile, explosive back, expect Robinson to follow the recent trajectory into week 1o.
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