NFL Predictions Tonight's MNF (October 14): Bills vs Jets Betting Odds And Best Bets

Week 6 of the NFL is here, and we have a highly awaited matchup MNF AFC rival matchup between the Buffalo Bills (3-2, 1-2 way, and the New York Jets (2-3, 1-1 home). 2.5 point underdogs at home, the Jets will embark upon a new chapter following the firing of head coach Robert Saleh. Under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich, can the Jets finally pull it together? With Aaron Rodgers under center, it's certainly been a disastrous start of the season for New York.

 (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Following two consecutive losses to the Broncos and Vikings, the Jets will face a Bills team that sits atop of the AFC East. After dropping two straight against the Ravens and Texans, can they pull ahead in the standings?

Aiming to avoid a three-game skid, the Bills started off the season strong, especially offensively. Blown out by the Ravens in week 4, Baltimore undoubtedly exposed one of their biggest weakness, which is the run defense. With Derrick Henry continuing his dominating season, the former Titan ran over Buffalo for 199 yards, and gave up three touchdowns alone to Lamar Jackson. Just when there was trouble in paradise, the Bills couldn't overcome the Texans last week.

Conceding to the Texans 23-20, the Bills simply couldn't catch a break. Although the offense improved dramatically, it was Houston's kicker Ka′imi Fairbairn that dripped a 59 yard field goal attempt at the end of regulation. Resorting to two made field goals, Josh Allen didn't exactly have the picture perfect game. Completing just 9-30 of his passes for 131 yards, It was Allen's and Cook's combined 136 yards on the ground that accounted for most of the offense.

Failing to top 300 yard passing in two of three games, is it time to worry about Josh Allen? Sure, the Bills have developed more of a run attack outside of Allen. Now they face a stingy Jets defense that limits opponents to 17 points per game.

The Jets Season Has Been Tumultous

For the Jets, things continue to get uglier and uglier for the franchise. While the offense was atrocious in the 10-9 week 4 loss agains the Broncos, all nine points came from Greg Zuerlein's field goal. With Rodgers failing to throw a touchdown, the running game was pretty abysmal. Following the week 5 23-17 loss vs. the Vikings in London, it was Andrew Van Ginkel who intercepted Rodgers for a 63 yard touchdown return.

With the offense looking completely out of sink, Rodgers day didn't get much easier. Throwing for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, Rodgers managed to connect with Garrett Wilson and former Packer Allen Lazard in the end zone. A long awaited connection with Wilson, Rodgers simply looked uncharacteristic. While the signing of Mike Williams has been deemed a failure so far, it's clear Rodgers hasn't been able to connect as well with some of the Jets receivers. And in week 5, we saw a pass that was intercepted and intended for Williams.

Odds Are Current As Of October 13 AT 5 P.M. ET

Are you looking to bet on the MNF NFL matchup between the Bills and the Jets? In a prime time matchup, the Bills remain the current -130 money line favorites.

If you're looking to stay in the green, I finished up over 7 units with a NFL betting record of 65-47 in the month of September. Although down four units through October, the goal is to provide quality picks and betting predictions for avid NFL fans and all types of bettors.

Monday's matchup between the Bill and the Jets will kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET. Set to air on ESPN, today's game will take place at Metlife Stadium. With the 6th best odds to win the Super Bowl +1100. the Bills get the Jets, who have +2800 odds to win the Vince Lombardi trophy. Will their be a MNF upset between these two teams? Let's break down my best bets and player prop predictions for the October 14 clash between the Bills and the Jets.

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NFL WEEK 6 BETS: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets FanDuel Odds For October 14

MONEYLINE

• BUFFALO BILLS: -130
• NEW YORK JETS: +110

SPREAD

• BUFFALO BILLS: -2.5 (-108)
• NEW YORK JETS: +2.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 45.5 (-1150)
• UNDER: 45.5 (-105)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Injury Report

BILLS

1. Khalil Shakir, WR, Questionable
2. Darrynton Evans, RB: IR
3. Taron Johnson, CB: Questionable
4. Ed Oliver, DT: OUT
5. James Cook, RB: Questionable

JETS

1. Haason Reddick, DE: Reserve- DNR
2. C.J. Mosley, LB: Questionable
3. Tyler Conklin, TE: Questionable
4. Michael Carter II, CB: OUT
5. Leki Fotu, DT: IR-R

• Troy Anderson, LB: OUT

NFL Predictions for Monday, October 14 Week 6

NFL Money Line Bet: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

• Buffalo Bills ML (-130)

For the MNF showdown, I bet on the Bills to win the moneyline straight up against the Jets for -130 odds on FanDuel. Yes, I am aware the Bills have been a bit questionable this season, especially on the offensive end. I was too leary after the Bills failed to put up over 10 points for two weeks in a row. While showing increased signs of life last week, I like the moneyline for the MNF matchup. Although slightly juiced at -130 odds, I believe that will change, along with the spread ahead of the matchup.

Overall, the Bills aren't great on the road, sporting a 1-2 record away from their home stadium.  However, this Monday matchup follows a major shakeup in the Jets organization, which will be Ulbrich's first game as interim head coach. Known for his defensive playbook and schemes, can he help the Jets get in synch. While Ulbrich will continue to call plays on the defensive end, it's unclear if Saleh was the true problem.

Can The Bills Overcome The Jets Defense?

One strength of the Jets is their defense, allowing the least yardage, which includes yards through the air. If running back James Cook is unable to suit up, that may be a problem for Buffalo.  The Bills put up a ton of points, 29.5 to be exact. However, they face a Jets defense that recently allowed Minnesota to pour 23 points on them. Speaking of defense, the Jets will get Allen, who hasn't performed well under pressure all year.

Leading the AFC with a +36 point differential, the Bills will face a Jets team who rank second with a +8 differential. With that said, Buffalo has been more successful running the ball opposed to passing, and remain one of the most elite red zone offensive teams. Although Allen isn't throwing nearly for as many yards, he's connected with his receivers 29 times in the end zone.

The Jets Defense Is Saving Their Season

Khalil Shakir has clearly established himself as Allen's favorite target, and the Bills should have no problem if Shakir and Cook are available to play. While both remain questionable, Cook has been a difference maker on the goal line this year. While exploding for a few games early on, Cook's found the end zone four times already in five games.

If Shakir is unable to suit up, Curtis Samuel will likely have the best matchup in the slot. Rookie Keon Coleman has a tough matchup against D.J. Reed, which would most likely pair Mack Hollins vs Sauce Gardner. Allen likes and trusts tight end Dalton Kincaid, or better yet, Allen may take care of things on the ground himself.

Although Sean McDermott states Allen will run less and less every year, the Bills quarterback has 160 yards rushing on the ground with two touchdowns. Really, the success of the Bills tonight may all fall on Josh Allen.

There's Trouble In Paradise For The Jets

Defeating the Jets in three of their last five matchups, the Bills get the Jets, who also recently replaced offensive coordinator with Todd Downing. Although I see this as an upgrade, it will take time for the offense to click. After all, it took five weeks for star receive Garrett Wilson to be noticed in the offensive game.

With all of these coaching changes, can we really trust this dishevled Jets franchise right now? Do we expect them to come out blazing on the offensive end admist a coaching and offensive coordinator change? My guess is no.

All in all, this is a tough game to bet on. Josh Allen hasn't looked quite like himself, and hasn't had the star power after the departure of Stefon Diggs. While the Bills have looked terrible, and Allen has committed several turnovers the last few weeks,  I do think they turn it around here. Just one year ago, the Bills defeated the Hets 32-6, in which Allen threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Although Zach Wilson was under center for the Jets, it's now a different story.

Final NFL betting prediction: Buffalo Bills ML (-130 FanDuel)

Sure, the Bills have looked terrible, but look at their opponents the last weeks, the Ravens and the Texans. Although the Jets are expected to run the ball, the Bills haven't been able to stop the run all season. There is good news on the horizon for Bills fans. Even with Breece Hall, the Jets haven't been stellar on the ground.

And to put it lightly, Rodgers looks awful out there. Although the Jets came back down 17-0 vs Minnesota, the Jets quarterback was intercepted thrice, and aside from a one yard touchdown pass to Wilson, it's clear he connects well with former Packers receivers.

Overall, this is a matchup of a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and a struggling Aaron Rodgers, vs a Bills team that's hired new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. While I don't expect this to be a thrilling matchup, the Bills do have some injuries on the defensive end.

However, I'm taking Josh Allen over a disgruntled franchise with an aging quarterback. Putting up just 26 points over the last two weeks, I'll veer away from the enticing +110 Jets moneyline. I'll take Bills moneyline as my best bet and prediction for MNF.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Dalton Kincaid

GP: 5  | Receiving TD: 1 | Targets: 24 | Yards: 166 | Average: 11.1 | Long: 28 | First Down: 7

• O 16.5 longest reception (-120 FanDuel)

My first player prop bet for Monday's game is Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid to record over 16.5 longest reception for -120 odds on FanDuel. If Khalil Shakir and James Cook are unable to suit up, the offense will either need to flow through Josh Allen, or his tight end. Although Kincaid clearly isn't the goal line guy, he's been a reliable option for Allen. Third on the Bills in total yards (166), it's Kincaid who leads all receivers with 24 targets on the year. With 15 receptions on the year, I'm confident in this strong player prop bet tonight.

One of my best bets of the week, we all know Allen can throw the deep ball, and throw it well. Although the offensive targets are not nearly as potent, Kincaid has been a solid option for Allen up the middle.

Why Dalton Kincaid Is The X-Factor Tonight Vs the Jets

As we've seen over the last three games, Allen may not be throwing for a ton of yards. However, Kincaid's record longest receptions of 28, 25, and 26 yards vs the Jaguars, Ravens, and Texans. And if you're betting on the NFL, the Ravens and Texans aren't exactly defensive slouches.

When it comes to my best bet of week 6, yes the Jets are an NFL best against the pass. While they limit opponents to 136.6 yards through the air, it's Kincaid who has a solid matchup in the slot tonight. As weak as that Jets defensive line as been, they give up an average of just over 25 yards to tight ends. Although the Jets have a store linebacker core, Kincaid can also line up in the wide. Averaging 11.1 yards per reception, I absolutely think the prop line for longest reception is set too low at 16.5. After all, Kindcaid is a tight end that averages 7.9 yards after catch per reception alone.

Final NFL betting prediction: Dalton Kincaid O 16.5 longest reception (-120 FanDuel)

At first, I was tempted to bet on Kincaid over 3.5 receptions. However, his longest reception of 16 yards game against the Jets last November, and is a steady option for Allen. Then again, over the season, the Jets allowed Courtland Sutton, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Johnny Mundt, George Kittle, and several others to tally over 16.5 longest reception. In those list of names, Mundt and Kittle are tight ends, and the Jets allowed Patriots tight end Austin Hooper to go deep for 19 yards.

Overall, I stayed away from Kindcaids receiving yards, especially since the Jets held three of the last five tight end opponents to under yards. Overall the Bills drafted Kincaid for a reason, especially alongside tight end Dawson Knox. Home or away, Kincaid has notched well over 16.5 yards down the field. One of my favorite predictions and best bets tonight, take Dalton Kincaid over 16.5 longest reception.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Allen Lazard

GP: 5  | Receiving TD: 4 | Targets: 33 | Yards: 240 | Average: 12 | Long: 36 | First Down: 15

• O 35.5 receiving yards (-110 FanDuel)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320 FanDuel)

My second player prop and best bet for tonight, I put coin on Jets Allen Lazard to record over 35.5 receiving yards at -110 odds on FanDuel. While it's a long shot, I sprinkled half a unit on Lazard to score a touchdown vs the Bills (+320 odds). Under a new interim head coach and offensive coordinator, the Jets offense looks dismantled. While Garrett Wilson finally connected with Rodgers last week and showed signs of life, we know once aspect. Aaron Rodgers has trust in Allen Lazard, and it traces back to their playing days in Green Bay.

Lazard isn't the receiver who's going to "wow" bettors. In fact, he's not the flashiest catch passer. However, he's reliable, and we've seen this over the course of the season. With four touchdowns through five games on the year, he's been the clear to goal line receiver for Rodgers. And with that said, +320 odds to score a touchdown tonight is great odds. Especially against a Bills defense, who's allowed five touchdown passes on the season.

Allen Lazard Is Aaron Rodgers Go To Receiver

A few yards shy of recording 35.5 yards last week vs the Vikings, Lazard has soared over this prop line in three of the five games against the series. In fact, Lazard tallied 89 against the 49ers, 48 vs the Patriots, and 58 against the Broncos. While the running game hasn't lived up to standards with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, Lazard ranks second on the Jets in yards (240), targets (33), and has 20 receptions on the year. From the looks of it, Wilson and Rodgers are starting to build chemistry. However, Lazard has cemented himself as the clear second option, and that's with the free agency signing of Mike Williams. Averaging an incredible 12.0 yards per reception, this is a strong bet for tonight.

Mainly a slot guy, Lazards lineup up equally as much in the wide this season. If you bet on the NFL, the Bills linebacker core is hurt, therefore a bit weak. I do think this is where Lazard will get his yardage, especially in the slot. Since Williams is a tall and lengthy receiver, he has a tough matchup with Christian Benford. Overall, I like this bet, especially since the Bills allowed Stefon Digs and Christian Kirk to recently record 79+ yards receiving. They even allowed Cardinals receiver Greg Dortch to tally 47 yards in week 1, and he's no where near the number one option in Arizona.

Final NFL betting prediction: Adam Lazard O 35.5 receiving yards (-110 FanDuel) + Anytime touchdown scorer (+320 FanDuel)

If we break down the injury report, I especially like this prop, if tight end Tyler Conklin is unable to suit up. Although Conklin was a non factor early on, he's developed some chemistry with Rodgers over the last few weeks. Allowing 114 yards to receivers per game, he faces a Bills team who's had inconsistencies at the safety position. Although their corners are decent, Texans receivers Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins dumped 160 on the Bills in week 5. With Tank Dell and and Dalton Schultz recording 34+ yards a piece, I am confident in this play tonight. Just a week prior, Ravens running back Justice Hill put up 78 yards vs Buffalo.

Overall, we've seen Lazards snap count increase by the week, and doesn't differentiate terribly from Wilson. Playing a season high 72 snaps last week, I expect him to be heavily involved in the offense tonight. For the touchdown prop, the Bills are allowing opponents to score 50 percent in the red zone on the season. Allowing 1.8 touchdowns per game, I like Lazard to score a touchdown, especially since the former Packer leads all Jets receivers in touchdowns.