NFL week 7 has arrived, and we have a TNF showdown between the Denver Broncos (3-3, 2-1 away) and the New Orleans Saints (2-4, 1-2 home) tonight! With critical injuries on both sides, it should make for a unique game from a betting perspective.
(Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Three-point favorites on the road, the Broncos get a banged-up Saints team, who will likely be without their quarterback, Derek Carr. After suffering an oblique injury vs the Chiefs in week 5, rookie Spencer Rattler will likely get the starting nod under center again this week. With receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave unable to suit up, the receiver core is extremely thin for the Saints. With holes on the offensive and defensive line, Taysom Hill is also doubtful for tonight's matchup vs the Broncos.
Following the first two weeks of the season, the Saints were looking like early Super Bowl Contenders. After starting 3-0, New Orleans offensive firepower was on full display for bettors, scoring 91 points through the first two weeks. While I was originally skeptical about the offense, the Saints went ahead and poured 44 points on the Cowboys in week 2. Now losers of four straight games, New Orleans has yet to put up more than 27 points. That includes losses to the Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. As concerning as it may be, the Buccaneers did dump 51 points on the Saints last week. At 2-4 on the season, the Saints find themselves near the basement of the NFC South.
What's more concerning, is the Saints only trailed by three points at the half. Projected as a top defensive team in the NFL, Tampa Bay put up 27 second- half points alone. I will say, if you bet on the Saints second quarter spread, they did score 27 points in that given time frame. Aside from Rashid Shaheed returning a 54-yard punt for six, Rattler shouldn't feel bad about his rookie debut. The former South Carolina Gamecock completed 22 of 40 attempts for 243 yards through the air. With one lone touchdown to Bub Means, running back Alvin Kamara once again found the end zone.
Will The Saints Spoil Sean Payton's Return To New Orleans?
For the Broncos, head coach Sean Payton will make his return to New Orleans, where he spent 15 years as the Saints head coach. Denver, 3-3 on the season, is in one of the most competitive divisions in all of football. While the Chiefs continue their AFC West dominance, the Broncos remain in third place in the standings. Although coming off a 23-16 loss vs the Chargers, the Broncos have key victories over the Raiders, Jets, and Buccaneers.
Although, can we truly forget Denver was down 20-0 at the half and scored all their points in the final quarter? Through the first six games of his NFL career, quarterback Bo Nix has an incredible connection with receiver Courtland Sutton. Boasting one of the best defenses in the NFL, Denver is limiting opponents to 16 points per game. With start cornerback Pat Surtain II out for tonight's game, that may change the defensive landscape.
Overall, tonight's TNF matchup between the Broncos and Saints will feature two injury riddled teams, in which rookie quarterbacks will compete head-to-head. With the total set at 37 points, will this soar under, or will Denver expose the Saints defense once again?
Odds Are Current As Of October 17 AT 7 A.M. ET
If you're looking for the best bets for tonights game, you've come to the right place! NFL games such as tonight can be extremely difficult to bet on, especially with multiple players on the injury report. However, it is Payton's return to New Orleans. While I veered away from player prop bets, I will provide my best predictions, analysis, and best spread bet for tonight. With a NFL betting record of 73-60, I am up nearly 9 units on the season. Looking to stay in the green, let's break down tonight's game, and analyze the matchup between the Broncos and the Saints.
While it's not expected to be an offensive showdown, here are my best bets and predictions for Thursday, October 17. If you're looking to bet on the NFL, kick off will begin at 8:15 p.m. and the matchup will air on Amazon Prime Video.
Are you in search of further NFL Week 7 and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a
list of the best sports betting offers here.
NFL WEEK 7 BETS: Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints FanDuel Odds For October 17
MONEYLINE
- DENVER BRONCOS: -152
- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: +128
SPREAD
- DENVER BRONCOS:-2.5 (-118)
- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: +2.5 (-104)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 36.5 (-114)
- UNDER: 36.5 (-105)
Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Injury Report
BRONCOS
- Patrick Surtain II, CB: OUT
- Alex Palczewski, OT: OUT
- Mike McGlinchey, OT: IR
- Daron Browning, LB: IR
- Damarri Mathis, CB: IR
SAINTS
- Pete Werner, LB: OUT
- Cesar Ruiz, C: OUT
- Derek Carr, QB: DOUBTFUL
- Rashid Shaheed, WR: OUT
- Chris Olave, WR: OUT
- Taysom Hill, TE: OUT
NFL Predictions for Thursday, October 17 Week 7
NFL Spread Bet: Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints
- New Orleans Saints +2.5 (+125 FanDuel Boost)
For the TNF matchup, I bet on the
New Orleans Saints
to cover the +2.5 underdog spread vs the Denver Broncos tonight. Yes, the Saints are in danger of riding a four game skid. However, I do believe this game will be relatively close, hence the 36.5 point total. While I do think that's an extremely low number, I chose to stay away from betting on the total. Although it's odd the Saints put up 27 second quarter points, it's clear the offense isn't the same without Derrick Carr. While Rattler had somewhat of a shaky NFL debut, the former Gamecock did throw for over 200 yards. Although Shaheed found the endzone following a 50+ yard punt return, he was rarely involved in the passing game. The Saints leading receiver was bottled up for 11 yards on seven targets.
If it wasn't for the Saints defense completely collapsing, New Orleans had a shot vs the Buccaneers. To my point With Raheed, that was without receiver Chris Olave, who suffered a concussion last week. While the offense has dissipated over the last few weeks, they managed to put up nearly 30 points last week.
Alvin Kamara Can Lead the Saints To Victory By Himself
While the receiver combo of Bub Means, Mason Tipton, and Cedrick Wilson Jr may not scare bettors, they've likely taken multiple second team reps with Rattler. With Means connecting with Rattler for a 10 yard touchdown, he did record 45 yards receiving on 5 receptions. Yes, he did fumble. However, that's expected of rookies.
What impressed me overall was Rattlers ability to spread the ball around, and connected with nine different receivers last week. While I do expect tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson to largely step up tonight, don't sleep on Wilson or Tipton. After all, Rattler threw a 25 yard bomb to Wilson last week.
Although the Broncos are a decent defensive team, they rank 14th against the rush, allowing 114.2 yards on the ground. While I expect the Saints to pound the ball on the ground tonight, bettors have seen the production of Alvin Kamara this season. Struggling the last two matchups, the Saints running back tallied 362 rushing yards, including five touchdowns through the first five weeks. Leading the Saints with six touchdowns, Kamara faces a Broncos team that gave up 96 rushing yards to J.K Dobbins in week 6. While we saw Kamara to explode for 115 yards and three touchdowns vs the Cowboys, he has the ability to lead the Saints, even in ugly games.
The Broncos Offense Is Tough To Trust
With Surtain II exiting the game early last week, we saw the Broncos give up 23 points against the Chargers, and were initially shut out until the final quarter. Although Denver's found a way to win games, this team lacks an identity, and that's something I've witnessed for years now. Without Surtain II, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert threw for a season high 237 yards. While having an up and down season, we know two things. Bo Nix can utilize his legs well, and Sutton often makes the down the field plays that save the Broncos.
Overall the Broncos struggle to put up points (18.7), and this is similar to years past. While I was initially hot on running back Javonte Williams, the running back duo of Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin hasn't truly lived up to betting standards. Through six weeks of football, Williams has yet to find the endzone as the top rusher for the Broncos, that may change tonight. Having allowed Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving to plow through the endzone twice, the Saints must revert to their original defensive strategy. While the offense has never been in question, the Saints have allowed an average of 34.3 points allowed over the last three weeks. With that said, I expect this to be a tight kept matchup.
Final NFL betting prediction: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (+125 FanDuel Boost)
If you bet on the NFL, you may be wondering why the Saints +2.5 is my best bet of the night. Even without Derek Carr, the Saints are much more efficient offensive team, averaging more yards, yards per attempts, and touchdowns per game. Dominating the Broncos in the running back department, New Orleans is a crisper team in the red zone (71 %) and overall more productive team scoring wise. 3-0 ATS on the road, we saw the Broncos cover large spreads against the Seahawks, Jets, and Buccaneers.
Now the Broncos get the Saints, who rank 11th in DVOA, and are a much more balanced pass and rush approached team. With Coutland Sutton expected to have a tough matchup with Marshon Lattimore, Devaughn Vele should have a decent matchup in the slot. However, I truly believe last week was an outlier performance for the Saints defense. 14th in defensive DOVA, New Orleans has been extremely productive defensively in the red zone. Limiting opponents to scoring 38.1 percent, they've only given up 8 touchdowns in the red zone this season.
Now they face the Broncos, who've scored on only 50 percent of their red zone attempts, and don't have a steady passing offense just yet. I truly don't believe the Saints defense will continue to have 10+ missed tackles from last week. Overall, I was encouraged by Rattler's NFL Debut, although the Broncos defense is serious. I simply don't trust the Broncos offense just yet.
BALLISLIFE.COM
