NFL Predictions Tonight's TNF (October 3): Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Odds and Best Bets

If you can believe it, NFL week 5 is here! With one game scheduled on the Thursday night slate, there's a classic NFC South Divisional matchup ahead.  Atop of the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-0 away) will face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 1-2 home) on the road. -1.5 favorites at home, the Falcons are 3-1 against the spread vs Tampa Bay since October 2022.

(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

3-1 on the season, the Buccaneers are the real deal, or so we think. With impressive victories over the Commanders and Lions, they are coming off an incredible 33-16 defeat over the Eagles.

Shutting out Philly in the first and fourth quarters, it was the Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield who torched Philadelphia for 347 yards through the air for three touchdowns. With a massive 14-point first-quarter lead, it was enough for Tampa Bay, who took care of the rest defensively.

Does Dominating the Eagles Make the Buccaneers A Championship Contending Team?

Sacked six times, Jalen Hurts couldn't do much through the air, eventually finding receiver Parris Campbell for a one yard touchdown. Truly looking out of sorts, sure Hurts ran it into the end zone for six. However, the Eagles quarterback fumbled off a sack by long time Buccaneer Lavonte David. From a betting perspective it truly shows how important Smith and Brown are to the offensive production.

Setting the tone early, it was receiver Mike Evans who found the end zone fairly quickly on the first drive. Evans, who totaled a team-high 94 yards, was mainly held in check by rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell.

• Let's not forget, the Buccaneers had four receivers with 50+ yards, including ex-giants Sterling Shepard.

Overall, Tampa Bay exposed Philadelphia's weakness, and that's their defense. Although you could say the Eagles were missing their top wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, this confirmed how terrible their defense has been. Allowing the fourth most points per game (23.6), the Buccaneers will look to extend their success tonight.

How Are The Atlanta Falcons The +165 Betting Odd Favorites To Win The NFC South?

If you're betting on the NFL, we all know the Falcons are a newly reconstructed team. With Kirk Cousins at the helm, they haven't looked as crisp as bettors expected. With a 2-2 record, and 1-2 at home, this team is somehow the favorite to win the division.

We know one aspect, both the Falcons and Buccaneers have victories over the Eagles. Although the Falcons suffered losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, they are coming off an impressive, high-scoring 26-24 victory over the Saints. While New Orleans started off as one of the most potent offenses in the league, it was Atlanta who edged them out with a 58 yard bomb by kicker Younghoe Koo.

Falcons' Defense Needs To Step Up Despite Sloppy Wins

Expected to boost the team with their defensive, that aspect has been a bit disappointing. Allowing over 321 passing yards per game, this team added several pieces on the defensive end. However, the additions Jessie Bates III, Justin Simmons, and Matthew Judon should start to gel at some point.

Starting off the game with a fumbled recovery in the end zone, this was an overall sloppy game. Allowing way too many rushing touchdowns, Kick Cousins certainly struggled on the offensive end. However, it was their defense that accounted for 14 total points. All in all, it was a gutsy divisional win by Atlanta.

The favorites to win the NFC South with +165 odds, the offense hasn't clicked for Kirk Cousins and company. Will it tonight against the Buccaneers?

Odds Are Current As Of October 3 AT 8 A.M. ET

Are you an avid NFL bettor? If so, you've come to the right place! Here at Ballislife, I will provide the current odds and predictions for tonight's matchup between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. With an NFL betting record of 65-47, I am up over six units on the season.

Looking to stay in the green, I've provided my best picks for tonight, which includes money line predictions and player prop bets. Let's take a dive into this rival NFC South matchup between the Buccaneers and Falcons!

If you are betting on tonight's NFL game, kick-off is slated to start at 8:15 p.m. ET. Scheduled to air on Amazon Prime Video, tonight's TNF matchup will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, located in Atlanta, Georgia.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 5 BETS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons FanDuel Odds For October 3

MONEYLINE

• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: +108
• ATLANTA FALCONS: -126

SPREAD

• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: +1.5 (-105)
• ATLANTA FALCONS:  -1.5 (-115)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 43.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS

• Set to host the Buccaneers at home, Caesars has the best Falcons spread odds at -1.5 for -105 odds.
• The Buccaneers will head on the road for the first time since week two. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best odds at -105, tabbing Tampa Bay as +1.5 point underdogs.
• BetMGM and Caesars  offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the over (43.5) at -110 odds, while Caesars offers the best value for the under at -105 odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Injury Report

BUCCANEERS

1. Antoine Winfield Jr., S: OUT
2. Calijah Kancey, DT: OUT
3. Jalen McMillan, WR: OUT
4. Luke Goedeke, OT: OUT
5. Trey Palmer, WR: OUT

FALCONS

1. Drew Dalman, C: IR
2. Jase McMlellan, RB: Questionable
3. Nate Landman, LB: IR
4. Milo Eifler, LB: IR
5. Troy Anderson, LB: OUT

NFL Predictions for Thursday, October 3 Week 5

NFL Money Line Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+108)

In an anticipated divisional showdown between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, I bet on the Buccaneers to win the moneyline at +108 odds on FanDuel. Opening at +3 point spread underdogs, now the Falcons are favorited by just a slim margin.

Having captured three straight NFC South titles, the Buccaneers get another shot against the Falcons, in which they are 7-3 straight up against over the last 10 meetings. While Tampa Bays receiving core is relatively similar to years past, they get a revamped Falcons squad with Kirk Cousins under center. While the offensive hasn't exactly clicked the way bettors hoped to, Atlanta showed glimpses of hope against the Eagles and Saints.

Falcons' passes need to be improved

Let's face it, sure the Falcons came away with the victory over the Saints. However, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes, the Falcons quarterback completed 21/35, with an interception. Aside from Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed losing the ball in the end zone off a fair catch, the passing game was pretty much abysmal after that. Blinding throwing a middle of the field interception, is Cousins in danger of losing the starting job? With rookie Michael Penix taking warm up throws on the sideline, it's certainly a possibility.

Overall, it was a penalty, pass interference that saved the Falcons on that last drive. Only throwing five yards on the last possession, the Falcons somehow made it into field goal territory. Largely trusting the run game with Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, that may be what does the Falcons in.

I Trust The Buccaneers Offense vs A Falcons Team That's Looked Disheveled At Times

Overall, if you're are making NFL picks tonight, the Falcons are a middle of the road team on both sides of the ball. Struggling to put points on the board (18.8), this is a team that truly hasn't been near effective as most on the ground or through the air. Putting up an average 309.2 yard per game may not be enough, against a Buccaneers team that averages over 24 points a game.

• I'm not saying these teams are drastically different, however, we can't ignore the confidence and resurgence of Baker Mayfield.

For a team that throws 64.9 percent of the time, the Buccaneers have soared into my list of top 5-10 offensive powerhouses. Aside from a terrible week 3 matchup, where Mayfield was sacked seven times against the Broncos, the former Sooner torched the Eagles for 347 yards, and completed 30 of 47 passes.

A season high in completions and passing yards, Mayfield has all the momentum heading into this Thursday night matchup tonight.

The NFC South leading Buccaneers for the money line!

When it comes to my NFL predictions, I look for value picks, and this is in fact one of my favorites for tonight. At plus money (+108), how can I ignore this moneyline bet. Especially a Buccaneers team who leads the NFC South. Making a statement against Philadelphia, it was a clean game.

Limiting turnovers and attacking the Eagles pass defense, there were several instances where the Eagles simply gave up at the goal line. Ranking eighth in opponent points per game (18.8), the Buccaneers defense isn't anything spectacular.

However, limiting the Eagles to just 16 points was quite impressive. It's certainly a factor to look at, especially a potent Eagles offense, who puts up over 365 yards per game.

How Are the Falcons The Money Line Favorites When They Are 1-2 At Home?

When it comes to my NFL money line prediction and analysis, this is a Buccaneers team that's been very efficient in the redzone, scoring 60 percent of the time. Tied seventh in the NFL, this is an offensive that has nearly four redzone attempts per game, which is why I think they will put up a ton of points on Atlanta.

All though Thursday night games can be a bit funky, I expect Tampa to continue their dominance over Atlanta. Leading the division with a +19 point differential, how are the Buccaneers the money line underdogs against the Falcons team who has a -10 point differential? To me that makes zero sense.

Buccaneers offense outpacing Falcons' growing attack

If you're making NFL bets, this is a Buccaneers offense that clearly is far developed become Atlanta's offensive scheme. Assuming it might take the Falcons time to develop chemistry under new coach Raheem Morris, and offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson.

Although Drake London is the clear cut favorite target in Atlanta, I still believe tight end Kyle Pitts is a talented player, who's very underutilized.

Final NFL betting prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+108 FanDuel)

Putting well over 20 more points forward than the Falcons, the Buccaneers have a strong passing game. And now with the signing of veteran Sterling Shepard, the passing attack just got more dangerous. With Mayfield targeting tight end Cade Otton the correct way, there's clear cut options behind star receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Bucs Moneyline looks strong against Falcons’ 1-2 home record

Undefeated on the road, the Buccaneers face a Falcons team, who has a 1-2 straight up record at home. 3-0 against division rivals this year, I'm taking Tampa Bay Buccaneers money line as one of my favorite NFL bets and predictions tonight.

If Atlanta continues to commit to the run under backs Bijan Robinson and Allgeier, they may have success, considering Tampa Bay isn't great against the Run. However, the Buccaneers limited the Eagles to just 113 yards on the ground last game.

The Buccaneers defeated the Falcons 29-25 in their last matchup in which they were moneyline underdogs. Go with the Buccaneers straight up tonight.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Chris Godwin

GP: 4  | Receiving TD: 3 | Targets: 34 | Yards: 322 | Average: 11.9 | Long: 41 | First Down: 21

• O 6.5 receptions (+114 FanDuel)

My first NFL player prop, I'm betting on Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin to record over 6.5 receptions against the Falcons. While this is a risky bet, I do suggest betting lower units on this prop. Now, with that said, I love the value, and the matchup for tonight.

Moved to the slot primarily from the outside, Godwin is back to elite form, and aside from Mike Evans, is the clear top favorite target for Mayfield. Leading the team in targets (34), receptions (27), and receiving yards (322), there's no doubt Mayfield loves to throw in the slot. Now Godwin gets a prime matchup agains the Falcons, who allow the seventh most yards in the NFL to slot receivers (32.7).

Why This Could Be A Risky Bet!

Although topping over 6.5 receptions twice this season, Godwin showed out, with seven receptions against the Lions, and eight, against the Commanders. With the lowest reception total of six, I don't believe this prop line is too far off.

Staying under the 7 reception mark against Atlanta for all of the games since 2021, the stats don't say bet on this player prop. However, this is a receiver that ranks top three in catches.

Previously mentioned before, the Falcons have a solid defensive team on paper, however they haven't performed up to expectations just yet. With that said, I am predicting wide receiver Mike Evans to have an under type of day, especially against Mike Hughes, and Jessie Bates III on the left side. For plus money, it's not as though Godwin hasn't come close to seven receptions. Tallying six in the last two matchups against the Eagles and Broncos, it's a solid play tonight.

Final NFL betting prediction: Chris Godwin O 6.5 Receptions (+114 FanDuel)

For this player prop, I'm simply ignoring the recent trends and stats. Godwin has a prime matchup against corner Dee Alford, who's played over 152 snaps against slot receivers. With seven missed tackles on the season, Alford has allowed 21 receptions on the year.

Allowing well over 8 yards per reception, it may be a good idea to place a wager on Godwin's alternate reception yards. Allowing back-to-back nine receptions against the Saints and Chiefs, I simply love this matchup.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Tyler Allgeier

GP: 4  | Carries: 27 | Rushing Yards: 166 | Receiving Yards: 32 | Targets: 3 | Avg Rushing: 6.1 | Rush TD: 0 | Rec TD: 0 | Long Rush: 15 | First Down: 9

• Over 35.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)

My second NFL prop bet of the night, I'm taking Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier to tally over 35.5 rushing yards tonight agains the Buccaneers. A strong prop play for TNF, we know two things. Bijan Robinson is an absolute stud of a running back. With that said, head coach Raheem Morris cleary has trust in Allgeier.

Allgeier Outshines Robinson in Falcons' Backfield

Using a running back committee, Robinson very much leads the Falcons backfield with 224 yards off 55 carries. Next up is Allgeier, who's tallied 166 yards on the ground with 27 carries. When it comes to my NFL predictions and prop bets tonight, I found it perplexing Robinson equally utilized both Allgeier and Robinson against the Saints.

Out carrying Robinson 8-7 carries, it was Allgeier who was much more efficient on the ground. Breaking through for a longest run of 15 yards, Robinson was mainly bottled up.  What impressed me the most was Allgeier's 7.5 yards per carry, compared to Robinsons 4.0.

Is Bijan Robinson In Line To Lose The Starting Job?

I'm not saying Bijan Robinson's starting job is in limbo. However, Allgeier has been knocking at the door, and aside from last matchup, he's been more efficient than Robinson. For a running back that's putting up 6.1 yards per carry, that's extremely efficient. Considering the player prop line is low at 35.5 rushing yards, I'll gladly take this prop any day.

From watching the Falcons game, there's no doubt in my mind Robinson will continue to get a bulk of the snaps. Tallying 182, compared to Allgeier's 57, Robinson is the guy. However, I find it interesting how Allgeirer has a higher points per 100 snap rate, and higher utilization percentage.

Final NFL betting prediction: Tyler Allgeier O 35.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)

Overall, I originally loved this NFL player prop bet at 31.5 rushing yards. However, I'll take over 35.5 rushing yards, especially a back who's coming off 60 total against a solid Saints defense. Tallying over 35.5 rushing yards in the last four outings against Tampa Bay, who's stingy against the run.

Although top five in opponent rushing yards per game (95.3), Allgeier's efficiency on the ground has been to good to pass up. Hitting the over in two of four games this season, I'll take the over tonight. Aside from Lavante David, I don't trust the Buccaneers linebacker core or defensive line.

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