NFL Predictions Tonight's TNF (September 26): Cowboys vs Giants Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Week 4 of the NFL has arrived! For Thursday night football, bettors have a classic NFC East matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (1-2, 1-0 away) and the New York Giants (1-2, 0-1 home). The favorites by 5.5 points on the road,  Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have a 6-0 record vs the Giants since 2021.

(Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Coming off a 28-25 loss against the Ravens, the Cowboys now have a 1-2 record against the spread on the season. As we move into week 4, Dallas will look to continue their dominance of New York.

Starting 0-2 on the season, the Giants surprised the Browns with a 21-15 win in week 3. Now 1-2 ATS, can they cover as underdogs on Thursday?

In this article, I will break down my best spread bets, along with player prop and speciality bets. With a betting record of 56-40, I am up nearly 9 units on the NFL season. If you plan to bet on the NFL, kick-off will begin at 8:15 p.m. ET, and will air on Amazon Prime Video

Odds Are Current As OF September 26 AT 8 A.M. ET

Let's take a look into tonight's Thursday night matchup between the Cowboys and Giants. Compiling my three best bets of the night, I chose not to parlay my picks, playing them all straight. Enjoy, and let's cash out tonight!

Check out my three best plays for  Thursday, September 26.

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NFL WEEK 4 BETS: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants FanDuel Odds For September 26

MONEYLINE

• DALLAS COWBOYS: -255
• NEW YORK GIANTS: +210

SPREAD

• DALLAS COWBOYS: -5.5 (-114)
• NEW YORK GIANTS: +5.5 (-106)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 45.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 45.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR DALLAS COWBOYS vs NEW YORK GIANTS

• The New York Giants get their first home matchup vs the Cowboys since September 2023. BetMGM offers best odds with -110, tabbing the Giants as +6 point underdogs.
• The Dallas Cowboys get the Giants on the road after two weeks at home.  FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best odds at -114, favoring the Cowboys by -5.5 points.
• BetMGM currently offers the best odds for the game total, which has the total 45.5  for the over (-110), and -110 odds for the under.

Dallas Cowboys Vs New York Giants Injury Report

COWBOYS

1. Caelen Carson, CB: Doubtful (Shoulder)
2. Markquese Bell, S: Doubtful (Ankle)
3. Jordan Phillips, DT : IR (Wrist)
4. DaRon Bland, CB: IR (Foot)
5. Durrell Johnson, DE: IR (
6. Chuma Edoga, G: IR

GIANTS

1. Darius Slayton, WR: Questionable, (Thumb)
2. Dru Phillips, CB: Out (Calf)
3. Adoree' Jackson, CB: Out (Calf)
4. Graham Gano, K : Out (Hamstring)

NFL Prop Bets for Thursday, September 26 Week 4

NFL Spread Bet: Dallas Cowboys Vs New York Giants

• Dallas Cowboys -5.5 (+132 boost on FanDuel)

Heading into week 4 of the NFL, is this the same 12-5 Dallas Cowboys team we saw last year? Certainly not. After a dominating week 1 against the Browns, we've seen the Cowboys drop two straight against the Saints and the Ravens. Now they get the Giants, who were tabbed as one of the worst teams in the league after losses to the Vikings and Commanders. After a shocking week 3 21-15 victory over the Browns, are the Giants due for another win? We saw a monumental improvement in the running game, along with the Daniel Jones and Mailk Nabers connection.

I chose to veer away from the moneyline, given the value is not great on the Cowboys side. Do I think the Giants will win this game outright? The answer is no. Although I am a lifelong Giants fan, they've historically struggled against Dallas, and that's not an exaggeration.

0-6 against Dallas dating back to 2021, the Cowboys destroyed New York in their last two outings, 49-17, and 40-0. Shutting out the Giants by 40 points one year ago spoke volumes, and Dallas has a point differential of +124 over their 6 game win streak. An average of +20.7 differential over the last head-to-head matchups, I'm wondering how the Cowboys are only 5.5 point favorites.

Will The Giants Finally Break The Streak Against The Cowboys Tonight?

Of course, Dallas hasn't lived up to expectations. Losing control of week 2 early on, it was Alvin Kamara who ran all over the Cowboys for four touchdowns. Throwing two interceptions, Prescott and company were going up against an elite Saints defense. However, Dallas didn't look any better in week three, surrendering 28 points to the Ravens through the first three quarters. Once again allowing 274 yards on the ground, and two touchdowns to Derrick Henry, there are in fact troubles in Dallas.

Knowing those struggles, I still believe this Cowboys team is superior to the Giants. Overall, I do think they'll the momentum following the week 3 loss. Scoring 19 points in the fourth quarter, yes Dallas suffered a loss. However, the surge in offense is encouraging, and do believe it will carry over to the Thursday night game against the Giants.

It's evident Dallas hasn't quite figured out their run game. Having signed Ezekial Elliot in the offseason, it seems that Rico Dowdle is set to become the RB1. Even with a back committee, the Cowboys produce the third worst yards on the ground in the NFL, tallying 73.7 yards per game. With Prescott tallying over 370 yards, it's evident the passing game is becoming more solidified.

We all know CeeDee Lamb is the clear top wideout for Prescott. Following the departure of Michael Gallup, it's truly been unclear who fits among the gunslingers favorite targets. However, as we saw last matchup, Jake Ferguson, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert were all decent targets. Although the receiving core strength is developing beyond Lamb, Prescott should start to see more of a connection with other receivers. A versatile group, this is where I believe the Cowboys can torch the Giants. Especially against a banged up secondary. Who know's, it could be a Brandin Cooks day against a struggling Deonte Banks.

Mike McCarthy Is Not The Best Play Caller And Cowboys Defense Could Be Terrible Vs Malik Nabers

Tonight, the Cowboys have a prime matchup with the Giants, who allow nearly 190 yards through the air, and allow over 21 points per game. Although Daniel Jones bounced back in week three, there's one factor we know. Jones has historically struggled against the Cowboys. Owning a passer rating of 72.8, the Giants quarterback has a career four touchdowns and five interceptions agains the Cowboys.

I'm not saying Mike McCarthy is the best play caller for Dallas. However, this is a team that allow's teams to scoring 90 percent in the red zone. However, this is a Cowboys team that puts up nearly 26 points per game. If you're betting on the NFL, the Giants simply struggle to put points up on the board. Averaging 15 a game, the Giants should see some scoring opportunities against a Cowboy's defense who's been downright terrible. Dallas simply cannot stop the run and now face a New York offense who has an elite receiver in Malik Nabers.

Lay the points with Dallas Cowboys

Overall, I'm laying the points with the Cowboys tonight. It's extremely hard to trust their defense, however, I'm not betting against their offense. After all, Dallas is 7-3 ATS vs New York in their last ten outings.

NFL Scoring Bet: Dallas Cowboys Vs New York Giants

• Dallas Cowboys to score first -166 (FanDuel)

Discussed earlier, there's trouble in Dallas, which is something we haven't seen too much in the regular season. However, I've chosen a unique bet tonight, for the Dallas Cowboys to score first tonight. The first scorers over the last two meetings, it was CeeDee Lamb who torched the Giants for the first touchdown. And how can we forget the blocked 58 yard field goal which was returned for a touchdown exactly one year ago?

Aside from scoring the first field goal against the Vikings in week one, bettors saw the Commanders and Browns get the first points on the board against New York. Although failing to score first in the last three games, the Cowboys are statistically a better first quarter team than New York. Averaging seven points on the road, compared the New York's three first quarter points at home.

For years, the Giants haven't been able to get out in front of the Cowboys early on, and the stats don't lie. Shutout at halftime the last two matchups against Dallas, the last time New York held the lead was 2022 with a Graham Gano field goal.

The Cowboys defense is atrocious, we all know that. However, even in the Giants victory against the Browns, we saw Amari Cooper light it up for the first touchdown. I truly cannot see Daniel Jones full throttling this offense in the first quarter. Also, I simply don't fully trust Brian Daboll calling the plays just yet. If you're betting on the NFL, take the Cowboys to score first for -166 odds on FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Malik Nabers

GP: 3  | Receiving TD: 3 | Targets: 37 | Yards: 271| Average: 11.8 | Long: 28 | First Down: 14

• 7+ receptions (+110 FanDuel)

I promise, I am not a Malik Nabers homer. I did bet on Nabers to record 7+ touchdowns for +110 odds on FanDuel against the Cowboys. For plus money, I do believe this player prop has great value.

Yes, Daniel Jones is not a great quarterback, and we've seen this time and time again. What we do see is that increasing connection between Jones and Nabers. Drafted 6th overall out of LSU, it's clear that Nabers is not only the number one wideout, but Jones's favorite target.

If you're betting on the NFL, there's a reason why Nabers ranks 5th in the NFL with 271 receiving yards. Tallying five receptions in his NFL debut, Nabers grabbed 10 receptions against the Commanders, and eight against the Browns. Now, this is against the Browns defense that was ranked highly entering the season. While I am aware his receptions are contingent based off Jones play, Darius Slayton is questionable for tonight's game. If that's the case, Wan'Dale Robinson would be the next man up.

With Jalin Hyatt proving to be obsolete in the offense, I truly don't trust the Giants tight ends yet. With Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson splitting the duties, each tallied 17 yards each game off two total receptions. Then again, I'm sure Daniel Jones doesn't forget Johnson's drop in the back of the end zone.

Nabers Ranks 5th in the NFL with 271 Receiving Yards, But Darius Slayton Is Questionable For Tonight's Game

Nabers has proven he's the real deal, leading the team in receptions by a large margin overall. With Robinson getting seven receptions, it looks as though Jones hasn't connected with any receivers at this time. Although Nabers had a crucial drop against the Commanders, I expect him to ball out against the Cowboys. Although a small sample size, Nabers is averaging just over 7.6 receptions per game. Getting a bulk of the snap carries, he's also seeing a heavy volume of targets per game (12.3).

Up against a Dallas team who allows 187 yards though the air, expect Nabers to see plenty of targets. I do believe 7 receptions is too low, and for plus money, it's worth a few units. Projected to matchup against Caelen Carson, Nabers should have a stellar matchup. Allowing the 25th most targets with 15, expect Nabers to get several looks.  Even if Nabers is lined up with Diggs, he should have plenty of success, especially since Diggs has allowed 13 targets, and has slightly regressed.

First in the NFL in targets (36), this is one of my favorite player props for Thursday.

NFL Player Prop Bet: Malik Nabers

• O 23.5 longest reception (-122 FanDuel)

Today, I'm betting on Giants receiver Malik Nabers to tally over 23.5 yards for the longest reception. Mentioned before, he has a prime matchup against the Cowboys secondary who allowed Ravens receivers Nelson Agholor and Charlie Kolar to torch them downfield for 56 and 30 yards. After watching Saints wideouts Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave blaze the secondary for long receptions of 70 and 39 yards, I do think this prop line is again set too low.

After all, we saw Saints running back Alvin Kamara bring down a 57 yard reception, and he is a receiver. It doesn't get any easier for the Cowboys, who know face a potential rookie of the year Candidate. With an averaging longest reception of 28 yards, we saw a beautiful 28 yard catch from Jones against the Browns. Pushing the Giants down the field, Nabers grabbed a nice 28 yard gain against the Commanders, and 25 in his season debut against the Vikings.

Final NFL betting prediction: Malik Nabers over 23.5 longest reception (-122 FanDuel)

Lining up more on the outside than in the slot, Nabers is averaging a solid 5.6 yard after catch per reception. Although his slot presence has increased more and more with each game, expect Nabers to catch another bomb from Jones for over 23.5 yards.

NFL Player Prop Bet: CeeDee Lamb

GP: 3  | Receiving TD: 1 | Targets: 24 | Yards: 218| Average: 16.8 | Long: 65 | First Down: 8

• O 79.5 receiving yards (-110 FanDuel)

For the Thursday night game, I'm betting on Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb to record over 79.5 receiving yards against the Giants for -110 odds on FanDuel. One of the most elite receivers in the league, Lamb certainly showed some behavioral outbursts in the week 3 loss against the Ravens. Hitting the over on the prop in just one of three games, Lamb gets a Giants defense who allowed Amari Cooper to tally 86 total yards last week.

If you're betting on the NFL, the Giants secondary is banged up, especially with Dru Phillips and Adoree' Jackson out for tonight's game.With that said, Lamb has been a Giants killer from day one, totaling 722 yards and four touchdowns in eight career games against New York. While that's an average of 90 yards per game, we simply can't forget his incredible 151 yard performance against New York last November.

Hitting under this prop in just three of the last eight games against the Giants, Lamb is primarily lined up as a slot receiver, with occasional reps on the outside. 10th in NFL receiving yards, he faces a Giants team, who's allowed over 400 yards in the slot this season.

Final NFL betting prediction: CeeDee Lamb over 79.6 receiving yards (-110 FanDuel)

Averaging a career-high 16.8 yards per reception, there's no doubt in my mind this prop will hit the over tonight.  Coming off a seven reception, 67 yard performance, Lamb had that costly fumble. However, he was a colossal part of the Cowboys comeback, especially on the fourth quarter drive.

Having torched a decent Saints secondary for 90 yards, Lamb has an impressive 24 targets through three games. In another prime time matchup, expect Lamb and Prescott to connect plenty tonight. Overall, the Giants are giving up and average of 119 yards to receivers this season.

NFL Player Prop Bet: Devin Singletary

GP: 3  | Carries: 42 | Rushing Yards: 197 | Receiving Yards: 58 | Targets: 10 | Avg Rushing: 4.7 | Rush TD: 2 | Rec TD: 0 | Long: 43 | First Down: 9

• Any time touchdown scorer (+125 FanDuel)
• Over 2.5 receptions (-108 FanDuel)

Another great NFL prop for you tonight, I've placed a few units on Devin Singletary to score a touchdown and tally over 2.5 receptions against the Dallas Cowboys. No Saquon Barley, no problem. A great offseason addition for the Giants, I expect Singletary to have a solid night against the Cowboys.

I've opted out of rushing yards, even though the Cowboys can't stop the run to save their lives. A strong NFL player prop for week 4, Singletary is coming off an efficient 65 yards and one touchdown game against the Browns. Now the Giants back get's the Cowboys who have the worse red zone defense in the NFL. Allowing a 90 percent score rate, I'm fairly confident Singletary will find the end zone tonight. Of that 65 rushing yards, Singletary was bottled up for most of the game.

The Cowboys Allow An NFL Worst 2.7 Rushing Touchdowns Per Game

As mentioned before, we saw Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara run all over the Cowboys, literally. Allowing an NFL worst 185 yard on the ground, it would be hard to believe if the Cowboys allowed this once again.  However, with two touchdowns on the season, Singletary would have three, had he not slid at the one yard line to run out the clock.

Finding the end zone in back-to-back games, Singletary has seven red zone touches for the Giants this season. Quite efficient in the end zone, the Giants have scored 60 percent of the time. Although the Giants have backs Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Eric Gray, it's clear Brian Daboll has chosen Singletary at the guy. Getting the most opportunities of all backs inside the five yard line, he should cross the plane tonight. Leading the team in carries, expect this NFL player prop to hit tonight against the worst rush defense in the league.

For +125 odds, this is my best NFL bet for week 4.

Devin Singletary is a strong player prop play for week 4

I saved the best for last when it comes to my week 4 NFL player props! Along with the any time touch down scorer, I've bet on Singletary to total over 2.5 receptions. If you bet on the NFL, quarterback Daniel Jones struggles to push this team down the field, and that includes the big plays.

Depending how much Dallas decides to pressure Daniel Jones, Singletary has been a reliable receiver in the backfield for Jones. While 2.5 receptions is rather low, this might be in his favor, especially if Darius Slayton is unable to suit up. Hitting over this player prop in two of three weeks, the Giants running back is coming off a four reception game against Cleveland. Averaging three receptions per game, this player prop is a must play.