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Week 12 Monday night football has arrived, and we have a unique matchup ahead between the Baltimore Ravens (7-4, 3-3 away) and the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, 4-1 home). +2.5 point spread underdogs at home, the Chargers have little room for error as they chase the Chiefs for the no.1 spot in the AFC West.
Similarly, the Ravens trail just one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North. While Baltimore and LA hold the no.5 and no. 6 AFC playoff wild card spots, each game is crucial. With that said, tonight's game should be one for the books.
Dominating the Chargers in all aspects, Los Angeles is looking for their first head-to-head matchup at home tonight. Riding a four-game win streak, the Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the AFC. Coming off an impressive primetime 34-27 victory over the Bengals, the Chargers are real and here to stay. Although LA once held a 21-point lead, it was back J.K Dobbins who torched the Bengals for a game-winning rushing touchdown with just seconds remaining.
The Ravens are looking to bounce back following an AFC North 18-16 loss vs the Steelers last week. While the Steelers are an elite defensive team, the task won't get any easier tonight. With a 7-4 record, it's a must-win for Baltimore on the road tonight.
It's been an exhilarating week 12 of NFL football, and let's keep it flowing tonight! With +124 odds to upset the Ravens at home, the Chargers are tabbed as the underdogs for the first time since week four. -146 money line favorites to win this matchup, the Ravens have been favored every week in the NFL since week 1.
In this article, I've provided a mix of total and player prop bets. With kick-off schedule for 8:15 p.m. ET, the matchup will air on ABC/ ESPN. With an NFL betting record of 42-31 in November, let's cash out big tonight. If you're tailing my picks and predictions tonight, I've placed all my MNF bets within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.
MONEY LINE
SPREAD
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
My first best bet and prediction tonight, I placed on unit on the over to soar over 50.5 points between the Ravens and Chargers. Placed for -110 odds on DraftKings, sure this is a high total. However, we have a clash between two high powered offenses tonight.
You may be wondering why I wagered on the over, given the Chargers allow the fewest points in the NFL with 14.5. We've seen the Chargers slip defensively over the last few weeks, allowing 17 points to the Titans, and 27 to the Bengals. In one of the most entertaining matchups of the year, we practically saw a shootout between Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
It's a bit concerning for LA, who's limiting opponents to and 11th best 206.6 yards through the air. While Chase Brown wasn't entirely effective with 86 rushing yards, it was the receiving core who lit up the Chargers. Tee Higgins alone produced 186 receiving yards and a touchdown for the Bengals.
And tonight, they face the most powerful offensive in the NFL. With arguably the best running back and quarter back in the league, this is a Ravens team, that's boasting 30.4 points per game. Topping the NFL with over 430 total yards per game, there's very few holes offensively. With King Henry in the backfield, Baltimore has establish themselves as one of the most elite teams on the ground (177.3 yards) and through the air (252.8).
Let's forget the Ravens ugly divisional 18-16 loss vs the Steelers last week. Riddled with 80 yards worth of penalties, it was truly hard to get going inside the red zone. However, we can't ignore how elite Baltimore has been on the offensive side of the ball in week's past.
We've continuously seen Baltimore torch teams, and tonight is a must win for both teams. Sitting in the no. 5 and no. 6 wild card spots, there will be motivation for each squad to come up big tonight. While the Chargers defensive doesn't allow a ton of points, they aren't even top five against the pass and rush.
With that said, I expect Baltimore to feed off the Titans and Bengals recent success. On the other side of the map, the Chargers have kicked their offense into gear. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, I expected a rebuild year solely focused on defense. However, it's amazing what a new coach can do for quarterbacks confidence. Under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, he now faces his former team. Knowing how the Ravens defensive scheme works, expect the Chargers to ball out tonight.
Although the Ravens remain one of the best teams in the AFC, they can't defend the pass to save their lives. Ranking dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (284.5), Baltimore nearly gives up 26 points per game. With Roquan Smith and Travis Jones listed as questionable, the Ravens have several injuries to their secondary.
Overall, quarterback Justin Herbert's connection with rookie receiver Ladd McConkey has blossomed. If able to suit up, McConkey leads a receiver core which includes Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, and Will Dissly.
And we can't forget, the Ravens lost both J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards to the Chargers in free agency.
Dobbins has truly been an x-factor to the Chargers success, in addition to the increased mobilization of Herbert. With Hebert averaging 247.7 yards a total of five touchdowns in the last three weeks, I'm confident in the over. This is a Ravens defense, that's allowed:
several quarterbacks to light it up. Given the Ravens allow the third most passing touchdowns in the NFL with 22, I'll take the over on points tonight. Although the over hasn't hit between these two teams since 2015, these are newly constructed offenses. Soaring over in two straight games, the Chargers face a Ravens squad, who's 9-2 vs totals this year.
My best prediction of MNF tonight, I'm going with Ravens vs Chargers OVER 50.5 points.
GP: 11 | Receptions: 52 | Targets: 79 | Receiving Yards: 727 | Avg: 14 | Rec TD: 4 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 53 | First Down: 34
My second best bet and prediction for MNF, I placed one unit on Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers to record over 21.5 longest reception. Although a tad juiced at -120 odds on FanDuel, I do expect this line to increase as the day excels.
While MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the offense, Flowers has been a bit overshadowed. With increasing yards, and yards per reception (14) in his second year, this is a strong play tonight.
Veering away from receiving yards, Flowers is a great route runner, who possesses great speed to make the big splash plays.
Soaring over in five of seven games, we last saw Flowers get several deep shot opportunities vs a stringy Steelers defense. When I mean opportunities, I mean at least 4+ deep shots. While we can't forget Flowers 16 yard touchdown bomb in the final quarter, he torched Pittsburgh up the middle for 23 yards.
Although Rashod Bateman is always a deep play threat, I'm encouraged by Lamar Jackson's willingness to connect with Flowers. With six targets last week, Flowers has been averaging 7.5 over the last four outings.
Leading Baltimore in snap percentage (77 %), and snaps (557), Flowers is averaging a decent 8.1 yards per catch per reception according to PFF.
Given the Ravens rank 15th vs Receivers, bettors have witnessed Flowers ignite the following teams for the longest reception:
And with that said, the Browns and Steelers aren't exactly the most forgiving on defense. A decent matchup in the slot, the Ravens allowed four receivers to record 22 receiving yards. In addition, this is a Chargers team that's allowed over 21.5 longest reception in every matchup but two.
If you're betting on MNF tonight, we all know how capable Lamar Jackson can throw the deep ball. Against a new and improved Chargers secondary, they've allowed several WR1s to fly down the field.
My second best prediction of the night, take Zay Flowers OVER 21.5 Longest Reception.
GP: 10 | Receptions: 43 | Targets: 63 | Receiving Yards: 615 | Avg: 14.3 | Rec TD: 4 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 60 | First Down: 31
My third best bet and prediction for MNF, I placed one unit on Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey to record over 64.5 receiving yards tonight. If able to suit up, this is an elite matchup for the rookie receiver. Questionable with a shoulder injury, McConkey is coming off a career performance with 123 yards vs the Bengals.
Quickly becoming Justin Herbert's favorite target, there was once question with the departure of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. As I mentioned before, newly acquired offensive Greg Roman is widely known as a run heavy guy. However, he spent several seasons in Baltimore coaching not only Lamar Jackson, Colin Kaepernick in San Fransisco. If anyone can help develop and lead quarterbacks, it's Roman.
With that information, the second-round pick as had an incredible season for the Chargers. Leading LA by a mile in targets (63) and receptions (615), the former Bulldog is as advertised.
I do want to point out the left side secondary, that's been questionable all year long. With a 6-4 record, McConkey now has a decent matchup vs Baltimore, who's allowed WR1s to feast. In fact, since the beginning of the year, bettors have witnessed:
All record over 64.5 receiving yards. Based off the recent trajectory, it's an A+ matchup tonight.
Since the Ravens struggle against the pass, they allow the most yards to receivers. Although lined up in the wide time to time, McConkey has been the go to slot guy. If Smith is unable to suit up, I love this play even more. While he maintains the highest snap %, snap count, and utilization of any Chargers Receivers, I expect the Chargers to air the ball out tonight.
This is especially given the Ravens are the second best team vs the rush (77.5 yards) in the NFL. Surprisingly, the Ravens rank 29th in drop back EPA and 19 in drop back sack right. Expect Herbert to have plenty of time in the pocket tonight.
Since the week 6, McConkey has soared over this prop line in two of four games. Leading the Chargers in target air percentage (28.92 %), this is a great spot for him tonight.
If able to suit up, I love Ladd McConkey to record OVER 64.5 receiving yards.
For more NFL picks and predictions, make sure to check our Betting News section for upcoming matchups.
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