Monday night football is here, and there is a highly awaited Lone Star State matchup between the Houston Texans (6-4, 2-3 away) and the Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 0-4 home). +7 point underdogs at home, Dallas will have a challenging task ahead without star quarterback Dak Prescott. Riding a four-game losing streak, the Cowboys get the Texans at AT&T Stadium. While both teams are from Texans, just how many fans from Houston will show up to Dallas?
(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
With the Texans fresh off a 26-23 loss to the Lions, Houston couldn't overcome Jared Goff's five-interception night to seal the victory. Although the Texans lead the AFC South with a 6-4 record, they're riding a two-game losing streak, one of which came against the Jets. With a chance to get back on track, the Texans and the Cowboys are two teams headed in opposite directions. With a 3-6 record on the season, the Cowboys have yet to win a matchup at home.
Odds Are Current As Of November 17 AT 8 P.M. ET
After an exciting week of football, especially Sunday, I'm looking to stay hot tonight! If you're tailing my NFL picks for the Texans vs Cowboys matchup, I've provided a mix of total, spread, and player prop bets. With a 15-11 NFL betting record on the week, I am up over units on the week. Up nearly 30 units on the month, let's keep the cash flowing!
Placing one unit on each play, I'm focusing on continuous bank roll management. All placed within FanDuel Sportsbook as straight bets, I'm hot on the Texans. With that said, kick-off is slated to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN/ABC.
Let's take a took and analyze my three best bets and predictions for November 17 Monday night football matchup between the Texans and Cowboys.
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NFL WEEK 11 BETS: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys FanDuel Betting Odds For November 18
MONEYLINE
- HOUSTON TEXANS: -375
- DALLAS COWBOYS: +300
SPREAD
- HOUSTON TEXANS: -7
- DALLAS COWBOYS: +7
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 41.5 (-115)
- UNDER: 41.5 (-105)
Last Five H2H Matchups: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
- December 11, 2022: Cowboys 27, Texas 23 (Houston +17, Over 44.5)
- October 07, 2018: Texans 19, Cowboys 16 OT (Dallas +3.5, Under 45.5)
- October 05, 2014: Cowboys 20, Texans 17 OT (Houston +5, Under 47.5)
- September 26, 2010: Cowboys 27, Texans 13 (Dallas +1.5, Under 47.5)
- October 15, 2008: Cowboys 34, Texans 6 (Dallas -12, Under 43.5)
Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Injury Report
TEXANS
- Blake Fisher, OT: OUT (Concussion)
- Kamari Lassiter, CB: Questionable (Concussion)
- Folorunso Fatukasi, DT: OUT (Foot)
- Will Anderson Jr., DE: OUT (Ankle)
- Mario Edwards Jr., DT: OUT
COWBOYS
- CeeDee Lamb, WR: Questionable (Back)
- Zack Martin, G: Questionable (Shoulder)
- Nick Vigil, LB: Questionable (Foot)
- Jourdan Lewis, CB: OUT (Neck)
- Hunter Luepke, RB: Doubtful (Calf)
NFL Predictions for Monday, November 18 Week 11
NFL Spread Bet: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
- Houston Texans -7 (-118 FanDuel)
Houston Texans 2024-2025 spread record: 4-5-1
My first prediction for the MNF matchup between the Texans and Cowboys, I placed one unit on the Texans to cover the -7 favorable spread vs the Cowboys. I don't typically love taking large spreads, especially favorites on the road, however, the Cowboys are in a state of disarray. Let's face it, with quarterback Dak Prescott out for the season with a torn hamstring, it's up to veteran back up Cooper Rush. With receiver CeeDee Lamb questionable, the outlook is looking bleak for the Cowboys.
Starting off 1-3 on the season, things haven't gotten much worse for head coach Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys. On the wrong side of history, Dallas was handed a 34-6 blowout week 10 loss vs the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only did they lose by 28 points, the Cowboys have lost four straight vs the Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, and Lions. While that's an extremely grueling schedule, they've been behind 20+ points in each of their last five home games. To put it lightly, from the coaching, to injuries, this Cowboys team is downright terrible.
The Dallas Cowboys Are A Complete Disaster
Conceding to Detroit 47-9 in in week 7 at home, Detroit held a 27-6 halftime lead. Blowing a 10-6 halftime lead vs the 49ers in week 8, San Fransisco scored 24 unanswered second half points for the victory. From there, we saw the Cowboys get destroyed defensively by the Falcons, 27-21. Just last week, the offense was truly abysmal. With Rush under center, the backup quarterback threw for just 45 yards. In full desperation mode, McCarthy even gave QB3 Trey Lance a few snaps.
With no answer on the defensive end, the Eagles held Dallas to 146 yards of total offense. With a total of five turnovers, Dallas didn't have an answer offensively. When star receiver CeeDee Lamb is held to 21 yards, you know there's trouble in paradise for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys Are 0-4 ATS At Home This Season
A staple backup quarterback for the Cowboys, we all remember Rush's magical season in place of Prescott in 2022. One of the better backups in the NFL, Rush had arguable one of the worst games of his career. While it wasn't the unforgettable matchup vs the Eagles in 2022, it was sure close to it.
I'm not saying the Texans are the "crème de la crème" in football, which I will dive into shortly. However, With a 2-6-1 ATS record on the season, the Cowboys hold a -82 point differential, which is the worst in the NFC East. Better yet, it's the second worst in the NFC behind the Carolina Panthers. When you are now in categorized with the Panthers, you know there's trouble ahead.
0-4 ATS since October 13, the Cowboys have a -66 point differential in the week 6 and 10 blowouts vs the Lions and Eagles. Although coming within one possession games vs the Falcons and 49ers, Dallas has been the underdog the last five weeks. With some favorable opposing spreads, they've been unable to cover the 7 vs Philly, and 3.5 vs Detroit.
Unsuccessful in covering the spread in home games this season, the Cowboys are 2-5 ATS as underdogs.And for the first time, C.J Stroud will face the Cowboys for the first time in his career. While Stroud vs Rush doesn't exactly appeal to bettors, now is the time for Houston to turn the ship around.
Final NFL betting prediction: Houston Texans -7 (-118 FanDuel)
It may be the obvious, most popular choice, but there's not one single reason I would back the Cowboys with the points tonight. While Stroud has regressed this season, he hasn't had full healthy receivers for quite some time. With receiver Nico Collins due back for IR, Houston should shred the Cowboy's defense to pieces. While they aren't the most potent offense in the NFL, they've managed to cover -6.5 and -4.5 large spreads vs the Patriots and Colts.
4-5-1 ATS this year, the Texans are 2-3 covering the spread on the road. Don't let the week 10 26-23 vs Detroit fool you. Under DeMeco Ryans, the defense should take care of business. We all remember how Houston blew a 23-6 lead over the Lions last week's primetime matchup. While missing Will Anderson Jr. will be critical for the Texans, the Cowboys are injury riddled. If Zach Martin is unable to suit up, expect the offensive line to struggled ahead of Rush.
Expect a rebound performance for Stroud in the Texans on Monday. With my best prediction for the night, lay the points with Houston. Compare the Texans -2 point differential to Dallas's -88. Giving up the second most points per game (28.8), the Cowboy's defense isn't what it once was.
NFL Totals Bet: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
- Under 41.5 Points (-105 FanDuel)
Houston Texans O/U Record: 2-7-1
Dallas Cowboys O/U Record: 5-4-0
My second prediction for MNF, I placed one unit on the Texans vs Cowboys matchup to total under 41.5 points. Sure, this is a low total, the lowest the Cowboys have seen, and the Texans since the week 6.
Given the injuries to the Cowboys roster, Dallas is putting up the 10th least amount of points per game in the NFL with 19.7. Recently named Rico Dowdle as RB1, the second Ezekial Elliot experiment has been a complete disaster. Aside from the Raiders, the running game has been abysmal with 83.7 rushing yards per game. Although a top ten passing team, that should change directions under Rush.
Overall, we've seen what Rush is capable of in year's past. However, he's a true backup, and replacing Prescott will be difficult. That's not to say Dak hasn't had his fair share of troubles this season. However, the amount of offense is concerning, especially since Rush was limited to 45 passing yards last week. Furthermore, Dallas hasn't scored a touchdown since the 4th quarter of week 9.
If you're tailing my best bets and predictions for Monday night football, Dallas will flat out struggle against Houston. If CeeDee Lamb is able to suit up, expect Dallas to have some fight. However, with Brandin Cooks sent to the IR, there's been minimal offensive production behind Lamb and Jalen Tolbert. With only 11 first downs and 0-2 on red zone attempts, I am truly concerned for this discombobulated offense.
Why The Cowboys Will Continue To Struggle Offensively Under Cooper Rush
Without Prescott in week 10, the Cowboys ranked dead last in offensive EPA/play. I just don't see Rush and company getting it down, especially against an underrated team defensively.
Speaking of defense, Danielle Hunter has been the anchor, proving this franchise could build around cornerback Derrick Stingley Jr. Don't let Houston's week 10 26-23 defeat fool you. Failing to allow an opponent to score over 24 points since week 3, the Texans opponent points per game (22.2) doesn't equally reflect their efficiency. Given the Texans are fourth best against the pass (174.7), the under should hit solely based on the Cowboy's lack of offense. Now, Rush will have a challenge ahead vs Texans defensive line and secondary.
Overall, this is a Texans team that doesn't give up a ton of yardage. Limiting the third fewest yards per game (288), time of possession has been crucial for Houston. With the fourth best drop back sack rate in the NFL, Rush won't get a good amount of time in the pocket. Ranking 8th in defensive EPA/play, expect the Texas to hold the Cowboys to under 20 points.
Final NFL betting prediction: Texans vs Cowboys UNDER 41.5 Points (-105 FanDuel)
If you're predicting an outcome on the under, the Texans haven't wowed bettors offensively. While they've failed to score over 23 points since week 6, Stroud hasn't had a full set of weapons. With Tank Dell opposite of Nico Collins, I do expect increased offensive production tonight. However, I'm not expecting the Texans to pour 40 points on Dallas.
Coming off a 2 interception performance, Stroud gets the Cowboys who allowed Jalen Hurts to throw for two touchdowns on 202 yards. Although two of them came on the ground from Hurts, Kirk Cousins threw for 3 touchdowns and 222 yards the week prior.
Given both teams don't have an exceptionally high red zone percentage rate, I'm going with the
UNDER tonight. Especially since the Cowboys will most likely to run the ball under Rush. Allowing 25+ points in every home game this season, I expect Houston to fall within that range.
In a nightmare matchup vs the Texans, I truly don't understand how the odds are -105 for the under. With that said, I'll be shocked if Dallas scores over 13-14 points. Aside from a push in week 10, The Texans are 0-3 vs totals since October 20.
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Nico Collins
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 5 | Receptions: 32 | Targets: 45| Receiving Yards: 567 | Avg: 17.7 | Rec TD: 8 | Rec TD: 3 | Long Rec: 67| First Down: 27
- Over 71.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel)
- Over 25.5 Longest Reception (-114 FanDuel)
My last bet of the night, I placed one unit on Texans receiver Nico Collins to record over 71.5 receiving yards and 25.5 longest reception. Off the injury report for the first time in October 6, Stroud will get his favorite target back. This time, Collins may or may not be rusty. However, he has a prime matchup with the Cowboys. Tallying 567 yards through five weeks, Collin's has soared over this prop line in every game this season. With that said, I expect this prop line to increase as the day goes on.
The lowest receiving yards prop line since week 2 vs the Bears, we've seen Collins dominate against top defenses. That includes 78 yards vs the Bills and 86 vs Minnesota. While tallying 151 yards against Jacksonville isn't all that impressive, he has a fairly decent matchup vs Dallas. This time, he once again leads the Texans receive corp with Stefon Diggs out for the season.
Why Nico Collins Will Torch The Cowboys Defense Tonight
Giving up 210 yards through the air, the Cowboys have struggled to contain receivers this season. While allowing AJ Brown to torch the secondary for 109 yards, we have to look at the recent statistics. While keeping WR1s mainly in check:
- Darnell Mooney (88)
- Deebo Samuel Sr. (71)
- Jameson Williams (76)
- Malik Nabers (115)
- Rashid Shaheed (96)
all soared over this receiving prop line. Ranking 18th vs receivers, the Cowboys have a ton of holes on defense. That includes the absence of cornerback DaRon Bland, and defensive end, DeMarcus Lawrence. Even after a five game absence, Collins remains Stroud's top target with 567 yards, and should see plenty of looks tonight. Primarily lined up in the wide, Collins should cook against Caelen Carson. One of Dallas's weakest defenders, Carson's allowed the 73rd most targets, including a whopping 15.1 yards per reception. Should Trevon Diggs cover Collins, this has been one of the least efficient years of his career.
Final NFL betting prediction: Nico Collins Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel) + Over 22.5 Longest Reception (-114 FanDuel)
Either way, Collins was averaging 10+ targets and over 17.5 yards per catch before he went down with an injury. Although the Cowboys can't defend the pass to save their lives, they are middle of the road in terms of pass defense. Fully healthy, this is a receiver that averaged 113.4 receiving yards per game through the first five weeks. Poised to have another breakout matchup, expect the Texans to continue to their fast, pass heavy offense (61.6 %).
Along with that, add Collins to record over 25.5 longest reception. One of my favorite best bets weekly, Collins has soared over this line in all five games. Although handling 2 targets, how can we forget that 67 yard bomb vs the Bills for an early first quarter touchdown? Of all games, the Steelers are the only team to not record over a 25.5 yard reception. If I'm riding with Collins on yardage, I'll double up on the longest reception. One of my best predictions for tonight, I'm heavy on Collins to show out in back from injury.
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