Thursday Night Football has arrived, and we have an AFC West divisional clash between the Denver Broncos (9-5, 4-3 away) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6, 4-3 home). Although the Broncos and Chargers are locked into a playoff spot, this game matters.
(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
In fact, this is a potential wild-card matchup, and either team can clinch a playoff berth this week.
Fresh off a four-game winning streak, the Broncos have found their groove on offense. Coming off a 31-13 victory over the Colts, the offense continues to complement their dominating defense. Nearly similar to the 2015 Super Bowl team, are the Broncos true contenders?
There's no denying that the
Chargers
have exceeded expectations under the new head coach, Jim Harbaugh. While their defense has been elite for most of the season, they've been exposed lately. In fact, the Buccaneers demolished the Chargers 40-17 last week. 1-3 in their previous four games, the Chargers and Broncos are trending in opposite directions.
With a 3-1 head-to-head record over the Chargers since 2023, can the Broncos upset as +2.5 point spread underdogs? Or will the Chargers break the losing skid at home?
Odds Are Current As Of December 19 AT 8 A.M. ET
In this article, I'll share my top three best bets, which include the spread and player prop plays. I am up over 8 units betting on the NFL in December, and we have a chance to keep it going tonight!
With kick off slated for 8:15 p.m. ET, the AFC West divisional showdown will air on Prime Video. Set to take place at SoFi Stadium, this should be a good one tonight.
With my picks, I chose to play them as straight plays, found on FanDuel and Fanatics Sportsbook. While I always encourage responsible betting, you have the option to parlay them as well.
Let's take a look at the odds and my three best bets for the December 19 TNF matchup between the Broncos and Chargers tonight.
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NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers FanDuel Betting Odds For December 19
MONEY LINE
- DENVER BRONCOS: +126
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: -148
SPREAD
- DENVER BRONCOS: +2.5 (-105)
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: +2.5 (-115)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 41.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 41.5 (-110)
Last Five H2H Matchups: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
- October 13, 2024: Chargers 23, Broncos 16 (LA -3, over 37)
- December 31, 2024: Broncos 16, Chargers 9 (Denver -3.5, under 39.5)
- December 10, 2023: Broncos 24, Chargers 7 ( Denver +3, under 46)
- January 8, 2023: Broncos 31, Chargers 38 (Push, under 46)
- October 17, 2022: Chargers 19, Broncos 16 OT (Denver +5.5, under 46)
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Injury Report
BRONCOS
- Delarrin Turner, Yell, S: OUT
- D.J. Jones, DT: Questionable
- Jaleel McLaughlin, RB: Questionable
- John Franklin- Myers. DE: Questionable
- Riley Moss, CB: Questionable
CHARGERS
- Denzel Perryman, LB: Questionable
- Hayden Hurst: TE: Activated from IR
- Justin Herbert, QB: Questionable
- Will Dissly, TE: Questionable
- Zion Johnson, G: Questionable
NFL Predictions for Thursday, December 19 Week 16: Broncos vs Chargers
NFL Player Prop Best Bets Tonight: Bo Nix
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 14 | CMP: 297 | ATT: 467 | Yards: 2, 972 | AVG: 6.4 | TD: 20 | INT: 11 | Rushing Yards: 327 | Rushing TD: 4
- Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
My first best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Broncos quarterback
Bo Nix
to record over 21.5 rushing yards.
Let's face it, Bo Nix is gearing up as one of the strongest quarterback picks in the draft next to Jayden Daniels. Although quarterback props are not usually my go to, there's strong evidence why Nix should be heavily involved tonight.
First, Nix has been carrying the Broncos offense essentially without a run game. The third leading rusher for the Broncos, Nix has showcased his wheels on numerous occasions. With underwhelming seasons from Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, neither back has cracked over 500 rushing yards. With Williams leading the way with 461 rushing yards, the Broncos simply lack an explosive run game.
This is why I bet on Nix to rush for over 21.5 yards tonight. Tallying 61 yards on the ground against the Chargers in their last matchup, Nix faces the 7th best Dropback sack rate team in the NFL.
Is Bo Nix The Best Rusher On The Broncos?
Although the Chargers have long list of injuries, Nix will be pressured. How can we forget when Nix escaped a near sack, scrambling for a 21 yard rush vs the Chargers?
Bettors have witnessed Nix escape pressure and find the holes time and time again at his time in Oregon. No. 9 in the NFL among rushing quarterbacks, Nix is averaging 23.5 rushing yards on the ground. We saw Baker Mayfield scramble for 25 rushing yards last week, along with Joe Burrow (28), Will Levis (41), and Jameis Winston (27).
There's a high chance Nix could end up leading all Broncos rushers tonight. Whether the offensive line fails or Sean Payton designs particular plays for Nix. This prop should soar over 21.5 rushing yards. Nix is a talented scrambler who's excelled in avoiding sacks. With one of the lowest sack rates among starters (21), this makes this prop a great play.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Bo Nix Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Although this prop has been up and down from a betting perspective, we've seen Nix have success on the ground, especially against solid defenses. If we follow the trends, Nix tends to follow suite vs particular teams. We now seen him tally 36 and 23 on the ground vs the Colts. With 61 vs the Chargers back in October, he'll still have Kahlil Mack and the same defensive line in his face.
- Overall, the Chargers give up the 9th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season with 24.4. With that said, I'll take Bo Nix to record over 21.5 yards on the ground tonight.
NFL Player Prop Best Bets Tonight: Troy Franklin
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 13 | Receptions: 23 | Targets: 46 | Receiving Yards: 227 | Avg: 9.9 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 30 | First Down: 9
- O 1.5 Receptions (-184 FanDuel)
My second best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Broncos receiver
Troy Franklin
to record over 1.5 receptions tonight. I grabbed this line early, and it shockingly hasn't move.
There's no doubt the Broncos are simply running their offense through Bo Nix through the air. With a limited run back from the backs, Franklin has quickly emerged as an option amongst a crowded receiver room.
Drafted in the 4th round, the rookie isn't a receiver that will blow bettors away with yards. However, the wideout is a the official no. 3 option behind Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vale.
Although Nix has more interceptions than touchdowns in December, he's tallied over 1,000 passing yards over the last four weeks. Averaging 251 air yards in that frame, I'd like to believe Franklin will get a piece of the pie tonight.
Overall, asking for 2 receptions isn't a lot, especially for a receiver who's notched this in four straight games. With usage becoming more consistent, Franklin has seen 5 targets in two straight games, and and 11 overall in the past four weeks.
With Lil' Jordan Humphrey taking a backseat to Franklin snap wise, Franklin's snap % has hovered in the 40's since week 9. A slot and outside receiver, injuries may play to his advantage.
- After all, there are several Chargers players that are included in the injury report on the secondary.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Troy Franklin O 1.5 Receptions (-184 FanDuel)
Tonight, the Broncos receivers should get their fair share of targets. Even if Sutton is bottled up, the Chargers defense is quite deceiving. They may be one of the best teams in the red zone, however, they give up the 5th most touchdowns to wideouts. Furthermore, they've allowed 251 targets to wide receivers. Allowing well over 2,o00 receiving yards to wideouts, this is a strong play tonight.
Emerging as the third option, especially over the last four weeks, Franklin has by far the most amount of receptions in the right and left outside spot. For a receiver that ran a 4.41 dash, Franklin played a career-high 65 % of snaps vs the Chargers in week 6.
- With a longest reception for 29 yards, the receiver had a 31 yards and a touchdown on two receptions. Targets three times last matchup, I'll go with this once again.
Bo Nix has been one of the hottest quarterbacks since week 6. Spreading the ball around 8 different receivers in week 6 vs LA, I expect no different tonight.
- Sure the odds are juiced, however I'll take Troy Franklin to record over 1.5 receptions tonight.
NFL Spread Best Bets Tonight: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos ATS Record: 11-3
Los Angeles Chargers ATS Record: 9-5
- Denver Broncos +3 (-115 Fanatics)
My third best bet of tonight, I placed one unit for the
Broncos
to cover the +3 underdog spread vs the Chargers.
Sure, one could argue the Broncos have a four game win streak all against sub .500 teams. However, a win is a win in my book. Led by Bo Nix, the rookie quarterback has one of the best play callers in the league in Sean Payton, and I even like the money line in this case.
The Broncos and Chargers currently hold the no. 6 and no. 7 playoff spots, which means this game means everything. While I don't expect the Colts or Dolphins catch either team, it should be a competitive showdown.
Since week 6, the Broncos are 6-2, and Bo Nix has certainly placed himself in the rookie of the year conversation. With four straight victories over the Colts, Browns, Raiders, and Falcons, this is a Denver team that's put up 139 points. In that span, Denver is averaging 34.75 points per game. A solid team on both sides of the ball, they have all the momentum Thursday.
If we analyze the spread trends, the Broncos have figured out a formula not only to declare victories, but cover the spread. 11-3 ATS on the season, Denver's covered four straight favorable spreads in the last four weeks.
- In addition, they covered the +9 impressive underdog point spread in a two point loss vs the Chiefs.
The Broncos Are Riding A Four Game Win Streak
Let's face it, the Broncos came within two points of beating the Kansas City Chiefs. Let that sink in for just a moment. Now the books want us to favor the Chargers, who are coming off a 40-17 defeat against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I do believe the Chargers are the more superior team on paper, both defensively and offensively. With Herbert expected to suit up, the activation of Will Dissly will be an added bonus. However, this is a team that allows the Ravens to put up 30 points. Thats twice in four weeks Los Angeles allowed 30+ points. With critical injury question marks on both sides, they may play into factor tonight.
There's no doubt the Broncos will face a tough defensive squad in the Chargers. If we look at the past stats, Denver's struggled against elite defensive teams. Failing to eclipse over 14 vs the Chief and Ravens, the Broncos were limited to just six points vs the Steelers.
- A team that's struggled to find their footing at time, the Broncos are putting up the third most points in the NFL (33.7) over the last three weeks. Combine that with the Chargers struggles vs receivers in the red zone.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Denver Broncos +3 (-115 Fanatics)
Without J.K Dobbins, the Chargers offense hasn't been as explosive. Failing to eclipse over 17 points in the last three weeks, they face a Broncos defense that allows a league low 17.6 points per game.
Tonight will be another meeting between the legendary Sean Payton and John Harbaugh. Bettors did witness the Chargers 23-16 victory over the Broncos in week 6. Although head scoreless through the first three quarters, can we forget Denver's 16 fourth quarter points? We now know Nix was able to connect with two different receivers in a matter of five minutes.
Perhaps the Broncos unlocked the code to the Chargers defensive scheme, I'll continue to ride the hot hand, as the Broncos have one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
- I'll lay the points with the Broncos tonight. I expect a low scoring affair with two of the best defense in the NFL.
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